MichaelA
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94L seems to be on its way to further classification.
I agree since 94L's circulation appears to be separated from the in the last vis sat pic. As for the Eastern Caribbean, the SW shear the was persistent in June into July is pretty much gone now. Even the wave in that area now is showing more activity than it did traversing the Atlantic.
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Michael
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Hugh
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Well, I was extremely bullish on 94L 24 hours ago. Indeed, I thought 24 hours ago, that by now, we'd be dealing with a 50+kt Cristobal.
Boy, when I'm wrong, I'm wrong!
T-numbers remain 2.0, but there is basically no convection with the circulation at this time... and it's heading toward an area of dry air, from looking at the water vapor loop.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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typhoon_tip
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I feel fairly confident that if 94L crosses the threshold of invest into organization, most guidance will be retarded with both rate of intensification, as well as ultimate intensity - but may catch up on the latter, later on - looking forward from that point in time.
Now-casting is probably the more important procedure with this particular entity. All environmental variables are positive for development and we do in fact have a wave with a closed low on its axis, exhibiting cyclonic curl in the convective plumes...amid said environment factors. Potential outflow is good, shear remains low, SST are warm, and there doesn't really appear to be much dry air in the vicinity, either. Because the models do or do not show this system is probably of lesser importances when noticing what is actually taking place. It is simply and most likely a matter of getting a nice sustained convection concentrate, which is probably a matter of time.
John
(Referenced 'quote' was from a post that was moved to a different Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 15 2008 12:02 AM)
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Hugh
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It is simply and most likely a matter of getting a nice sustained convection concentrate, which is probably a matter of time.
What's causing the delay, do you think, John?
I mean, Bertha formed extremely quickly, and in an environment that I didn't think was that much better than 94L.. yet 94L is making very little progress thusfar, despite favorable conditions.
(Please use the PM capability when addressing a particular site user.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 15 2008 12:04 AM)
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typhoon_tip
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It is simply and most likely a matter of getting a nice sustained convection concentrate, which is probably a matter of time.
What's causing the delay, do you think, John?
I mean, Bertha formed extremely quickly, and in an environment that I didn't think was that much better than 94L.. yet 94L is making very little progress thusfar, despite favorable conditions.
I think this particular storm is on schedule for what models were depicting, actually, a few days ago. The mystery in the models is why they are lost at the moment when clearly there is at least some steady improvement, albeit slow upon the hour. I wouldn't worry about that though, if you are an enthusiast for seeing these things on the map.
You have to remember that Bertha had a closed low robustly spinning upon leaving the African continent. Bertha was also pretty much a fantastic anomaly, actually, this one is too for that matter. One's an accident, but two? A bit intriguing and there's a physical/causal relationship to some back ground signal that really wants to get a CV season underway at least excuse imaginable. If we get a 3rd (which the 12Z suggests) that's a slam dunk and this season has something unique about it.
That said, 94L was a weak wave really when it came off Africa... In fact, we should really be more amazed that it has stoked that much momentum from so little.
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Jul 14 2008 07:44 PM)
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metwannabe
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Bertha may still have some surprises up her sleave. With that huge bowling bowl of an upper level low sitting NE of her I don't think she will make much more progress northward. In fact, the WV image appears to be showing signs of her being pulled eastward already. Also I noticed some of the model outputs are diverging again are any that show a southwestard movement reliable? 
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Hugh
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I think this particular storm is on schedule for what models were depicting, actually, a few days ago. The mystery in the models is why they are lost at the moment when clearly there is at least some steady improvement, albeit slow upon the hour. I wouldn't worry about that though, if you are an enthusiast for seeing these things on the map.
You have to remember that Bertha had a closed low robustly spinning upon leaving the African continent. Bertha was also pretty much a fantastic anomaly, actually, this one is too for that matter. One's an accident, but two? A bit intriguing and there's a physical/causal relationship to some back ground signal that really wants to get a CV season underway at least excuse imaginable. If we get a 3rd (which the 12Z suggests) that's a slam dunk and this season has something unique about it.
That said, 94L was a weak wave really when it came off Africa... In fact, we should really be more amazed that it has stoked that much momentum from so little.
But.... 94L looked - to me - a lot more impressive 24 hours ago... and the was going crazy with it at that time. Now, it looks pretty sick, and the and actually lost it for two runs (they apear to have picked it back up now in the latest runs, though). Certainly 94L was weaker than Bertha when it came off Africa, but I don't see that it's done as the models projected, in terms of development. Were the models not forecasting it to have developed into a T.D. by now?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Freezey
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Hopefully it will make it out of its current area before the wave behind it cacthes up&messe up its chances of Development.However they could help each others development if at a safe distance from each other as they moistend up the air&filters out the Dry air
(im not hoping for anything bad to happen concering a potential harmful storm to hurt anyone,just find it wrather interesting to watch them develop)
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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LoisCane
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Problem with models is that the timing is integrally related to intensity forecasting. If you are off on one you are off on the other. Track often can be seen but be off by a few day as often the path is set but the timing and intensity must jive or its garbage in and garbage out.
It has a large pocket, it spins nice on visible however it is not stacked properly and has a push me pull me motion to it's spin and I think it got separated from it's bottom half though not real sure if the convection running in tandem to it's south was part of it or another wave.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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typhoon_tip
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But.... 94L looked - to me - a lot more impressive 24 hours ago... and the was going crazy with it at that time. Now, it looks pretty sick, and the and actually lost it for two runs (they apear to have picked it back up now in the latest runs, though). Certainly 94L was weaker than Bertha when it came off Africa, but I don't see that it's done as the models projected, in terms of development. Were the models not forecasting it to have developed into a T.D. by now?
You know, the cyclonic curl today is more evident than it was yesterday during the convection flaring. Yesterday the low along the TW axis was being assessed at 1009mb....today 1008mb...so despite its lack of pretty red hues on IR...it's a stronger system; granted at a very slow pace. Let's see how the nocturnal typology unfolds. Wouldn't shock me to see some additional stuff flaring later...
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Hugh
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You know, the cyclonic curl today is more evident than it was yesterday during the convection flaring. Yesterday the low along the TW axis was being assessed at 1009mb....today 1008mb...so despite its lack of pretty red hues on IR...it's a stronger system; granted at a very slow pace. Let's see how the nocturnal typology unfolds. Wouldn't shock me to see some additional stuff flaring later...
That's definately true. Yesterday, the big question in my mind was if there was a circulation (at any level)... I figured, give it until morning when the visible loop will show if there is a circulation. So, this morning, the visible loop did indeed show a pretty decently defined LLC, but the convection was all but gone. Now, there is a VERY small hint of moisture right near the LLC (on water vapor) but nowhere else. When does the nocturnal maxima happen for where the system is now?
Newest admits that convection has "decreased a little this evening. However...environmental conditions appear favorable for development...and this system still has the potential to become at tropical depression later tonight or Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at 15 mph."
I'd say Tuesday is 100% more likely than later tonight.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Jul 14 2008 08:25 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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I'd say Tuesday is 100% more likely than later tonight.
I'd say that is true whether or not big convection exploded overnight, unless something truly extraordinary happened. Which is not to say there's a 100% chance of TD status on Tuesday, just that there are better odds.
John
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weathernet
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John - I concur with your analysis of 94L, with regard to overall conditions at hand. I too was incorrect in assuming a T.D. at this time -24 hours ago. That said, and upon a closer look at several different Sat. enhancements, it almost seems to me that some Altocumulus ( or some mid level certainly lower than 250mb level ) on the systems western periphery seems to be moving out and away, rather than inward more indicative of a better stacked cyclone. My take is that perhaps there was or now is, a less than vertical system in place. Again however, as you pointed out....conditions would seem favorable and given a new round of bursting convection, perhaps a new focused point of surface convergence and dropping pressures would quickly establish a fairly robust and "visible" cyclone, at least to the models.
One footnote- There would appear to be a slight rise to the SST's just ahead of 94 L, at approx. 52W. I honestly do expect to see some convective comeback overnight, but certainly as the system moves over this somewhat warmer water. As to the convective area over the ITC, just south and southeast of 94L, this too may have near term impacted inflow slightly. If we start seeing this convection suddenly acting as a "tap root" into 94L, rather than seperate from it, than we could be looking at one big wet one knocking at the Lesser Antilles door. Finally, though I do not see any outflow cloud fragments on the cyclone's northern quadrant being impacted by any obvious shear, the system is now passing directly south of the southernmost point of a mid to upper mid-Atlantic trough. I cannot help but wonder if this feature has had some short term retarding of development.
I am still "bullish" on this system for future development.
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scottsvb
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Well I do agree that moving over warmer SSTs will help...but they are "OK" right now around 27-28C. Thing with 94L is...the LLC was only partially at the surface...infact its still there..but its mostly a midlevel system. The LLC is becoming elongated E-W during the last 12-24hrs.. only thing I can think of is..dry air in the upper levels caping cloud tops near 30,000ft. The MLC is well defined...while the LLC is weak and elongated now. I really dont see more than a midlevel center moving into the eastern carribean by Thursday and haven't been thrilled about this system.
System (wave) I been watching over the eastern carribean is still there...weaker than 94L but should continue towards the W carribean south of Jamaica by later Tueday into Weds...still giving this a 3/10 chance....upper level winds in the NW carribean are too hostile to develop this..but is better south of 15N (which it will probably stay).
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LoisCane
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Funny you mentioned that system in the Carib as I noticed tonight a few times and wondered why it hadn't been mentioned.
As much as I see it is possible for the invest to get its act together my eyes still go east towards the other wave:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8wvupper.html
Which stands out bright yet no one talks about it yet.
Imagine we need a bit of patience, got the water hot enough now we have to wait and watch and something will pop. SAL shouldn't be a problem either as I was looking at that site.
Perhaps everything needs to settle for a day after Bertha departs, that's sure a lot of energy she displaced for a long time.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
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Indeed.....the center that everyones been watching has been a midlevel low with a weaker LLC...but due to this being a weaker system and a strong LL Ridge to its N....the LLC has raced out ahead of the MLC and is now near 13.1N and 47W or just east of the flare up of convection. Although there is drier air closer to the midelevel low...the LLC has moved into a better midlevel enviroment thus letting T-Storms to form on the western side of the LLC. Still though, I would want to see persistance into Tuesday.
Again the center most are seeing is just the MLC and the LLC is further west racing off to the W on the eastern side of the current flare up.
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cieldumort
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Really have to disagree with that assesment.
Different take -
LLC much closer to, well, basically right at, 12N 45W, and finally starting to redevelop some (a little) convection right within it.
That hint of a spin off to the west-northwest (closer to 13N 47W) strikes me as resulting from the wrap-around convective balls we have been watching all day coming into contact with a conflicting layer or some sort.. so the tiny little complex probably hit a portion of the low-level/surface shear zone 94L has been roughly tending to follow, at the same it was rounding the smooth western edges of the oblong, broad circulation.
My best guess as to 94Ls LLC current position is about the same as the center location being tracked by , currently listed at 11.9N-45.3W, on their website.
However, it will be curious if the flare near 13N 47W doesn't disrupt things a bit, as it might very well be in the process of developing a meso, and without a doubt, it's the best looking convective cluster of the bunch so far today or tonight.
* Going to edit and amend all that to say that I might be nudged to split the difference with scott. We need a few more microwave passes... -and- a scatt... to put this one together, but a recent AMSRE pass sort of hints that there may be a primary or secondary LLC running along or near 12N and west of 46W.
How do you spell dis-or-g-a-ni-zed?
(I know, it's not *that* disorganized, but it could certainly be said to have room for improvement)
As an aside, this is one of the longest stretches of T numbers running 2.0 out of SAB, Tropical T numbers, in any case, without an upgrade:
15/0545 UTC 11.8N 45.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L
14/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 94L
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jul 15 2008 04:37 AM)
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