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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Cristobal Lounge
      #80633 - Thu Jul 17 2008 08:36 PM

I'm not bullish on any of the invests developing and being much of a threat in the short term. The low off the east coast is going to move out to sea, and the low in the Western Caribbean is going to move across Central America. 94L is too close to the coast of South America, and still in the Graveyard.

Once 94L gets into the Western Caribbean, the GFDL's forecast for it to move through the Yucatan Channel is disturbing. It still might never develop, but I give it a 50/50 shot once it gets to the W. Caribbean.

(Post and some responses moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by MikeC (Sat Jul 19 2008 11:30 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast [Re: Hugh]
      #80634 - Thu Jul 17 2008 10:41 PM

agree with ya Hugh... 94L is becoming a little suspect to me... 00Z runs are coming in and the long term range has shifted some... and i did see the GFDL too... of course over the next 5-7 days this will shift 10-15 times... but...i think will start to see 94L gain latitude once it clears the graveyard... will have to take a good look at tonights 00Z runs and see what the patteren over the lower 48 will be like come next week... GFS still appears to fire the next cape storm off and spin it through the atlantic... in the coming days

also tonight i am going to test a stream overnight from KJAX radar for level II data... i'll post a link in a little bit... setting it up with Usteam.tv (you'll need flash to view)

It will be here when i get the setup all done

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 17 2008 10:42 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast [Re: Hugh]
      #80635 - Thu Jul 17 2008 10:51 PM

I've seen *hints* that 94L is already trying to gain a bit of latittude, but it hasn't quite done it yet.
Once it clears the graveyard, I'll be watching the models a lot more closely, particularly with the latest ones trending MUCH closer to us in the panhandle. Granted, they're still pointing at Texas and Lousiana, but it's the trend that concerns me. Plus, I keep having a bad sense of deja vu regarding the GFS, which several days ago pointing this thing right at Pensacola. Perhaps it knew something? Models will shift every run from now until it develops, and even after that, so anything beyond 24 hours is a guess at this point (until it develops, that is), and anything beyond 3 days is always a WAG... but, it's definately not a goner like some people have been saying!

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion) [Re: Hugh]
      #80642 - Fri Jul 18 2008 09:51 AM

I can not see this system ever affecting any land.The most likely scenario is it moving out to sea.Interesting to watch,but not a concern.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #80663 - Fri Jul 18 2008 05:57 PM

For those not paying attention to Bertha anymore, it's back to a hurricane. IR looks good, but as NHC said, it's heading into cool waters and should only weaken. Very strong eye visible on IR. Wonder how long she'll hold on before coming extratropical.

The system off Georgia's coast (96L) currently has a 1.5 Dvorak rating. The GFDL model is taking it due north into South Carolina. I think the biggest question with this system, like 95L earlier in the week, is whether it will have a chance to even become a Tropical Depression before making landfall. I think a lot of this is whether it actually makes landfall. If you check out the various model tracks, you'll see that a number either keep it out to sea or right along the coast. I suspect a lot of this discrepancy is exactly where each model places the center of the low. With a hurricane hunter heading out, we should have better model runs tomorrow on the system, if it isn't already overland by then.


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weathernet
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast [Re: Hugh]
      #80694 - Sat Jul 19 2008 11:38 AM

TD3 did in fact slide to the east, and under the convection. Your eyes did not deceive you. I think this not only verifies NHC's indication of the system becoming better organized, but given the relaxed upper air and that the center is well parked under the CDO, even marginal conditions would seem to easily permit slow development. As indicated in the 11:00am advisory, recon may well determine later that we may finally have Cristobal.

As for GFDL not being so "bullish" on development of TD3, I wonder if this is in fact due to the relative size of the system. Seems to me that some models ( UK, European, etc ) do not pick up or forecast smaller systems as well. Also remember, though this was an easily trackable low which maintained its integrity from the Gulf, accross Florida, and east of S. Carolina, this was a small frontal low vorticity and not all models are as sensitive in picking up or developing these systems. My guess is that as TD3 develops and the mid level wind field develops, we will see some of the other models initialize it better, and thus their respective intensity forecasts come more in line with SHIPS. Final thought on TD3 for the moment, is that I beleive we may see intensity forecasts "bump up" beyond the current 45 knots. Given its consistantly improved structure, along with short term upper air forecast, I might think that the system may well approach hurricane strength as it passes just east of the North Carolina Cape area.

Interestingly, 94L ( ....the wave that could'nt...), continues to basically.....continue. Seems this wave just simply lacks the necessary organization to overcome each new wrinkle it encounters, whether that be inflow due to S. America, fast forward motion, a nearby weak upper low, etc. Even now as I write, there is a new bursting of convection seemingly over or near what may be some center of low or mid level vorticity. For the last couple of runs, GFDL seems to want to develop the system somewhat, and the GFS does attempt to deepen the system to at least a depression in the western Gulf. My guess here is that if this systems does not organize soon, than will be less likely to gain quite as much latitude, and perhaps may be no greater than one bad flood problem for Central America or Yucatan.

.....one additional thought on 94L, as I take a last look at it this a.m., for the first time, am starting to see what appears as a second center. Obviously, both are fairly weak. The primary low may well be under the current bursting to the south, however am now seeing what could be a mid level spin just south of the Western tip of Jaimaca. This is curious, in that the previous run of GFDL which attempts to develop 94L, seems to initialize it at this higher latitude. For now, I do not really buy it though, in part due to the limited convection around this point. Even if this should become a more dominant center on this wave, given its fast motion, I just don't see the necessary time for this to develop as such; at least not while in the Caribbean.

Edited by weathernet (Sat Jul 19 2008 12:05 PM)


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