Beaumont, TX
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Does seem to be some model support for a Gulf of Mexico system developing and heading into LA or TX. Basin seems to be getting active again with
three areas to watch. But then it is August.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 03 2008 09:18 PM)
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weathernet
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Looks to be a nice tight center; thus would imagine little will be needed once classified as a Depression, to ramp up to get tagged with a name. At this point given the fact that a low level center has been confirmed, all that really remains is recon confirmation of some 25mph winds, tropical characterists ( as opposed to baroclinic ), and finally maintained convection. Looks to me that all that really remains is the maintained convection - pretty likely bet on depression at ( or by ) 5:00pm EST. Speaking of bets...., looks like I lost .75 cents on my guess that 90L would sooner develop. On maximum intensity, I haven't really had the chance to look at the short term forecast with regard to upper air. Does not appear to me to be close to blowing enough convection to yet help itself in creating any significantly enchanced upper divergence. Looks like it'll have to depend more on whatever the current upper air patterns have in store for it. Any thoughts on the 36-48hr 200mb forecast for the N.W. Gulf?
Speaking of 90L........, i've seem to have misplaced it. Anyone see it lately?? Kidding aside though, I still believe it has opportunity to develop depending on the accompaning easterly surge and the relative shear perhaps being caused by it. May be something of greater conversation if and when approaching the Greater Antilles.
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Latest model data as of the moment shows recon coming in with some wind reports ( up to 37knots ), which would support Tropical Storm force. Of course, one need apply various factors including actual winds speeds at the surface, probably at least a net 20% less than measured. Recon looks to be close to closing off a center and latest SHIPS model forecast initiates the system at 30knots.
I think we are now only within 90 minutes of a depression being made official. If so, Watches ( at minimum ) would soon be hoisted for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. 
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