ppdmike
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Houston, TX
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"So is it just me or is there a completely separate broad low-level circulation along 25N 90W?"
Is the circulation you mentioned the same one being mentioned in this forecast discussion?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN REGIONAL ITEMS OF NOTE INCLUDE THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE
LOWER TX COAST...THE SURFACE LOW ON THE SABINE JUST SOUTH OF
KSHV...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER N TX AND THE BIG BEND...AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE GULF AND W CARIBBEAN.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the latest Slidell,LA Discussion.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AND
ENHANCE ITS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN
DETACHED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS A
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CAUSING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30E/60W
MAINTAIN THEIR HOLD...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...INVEST TRACKS AND MODELS SHOW THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHERLY COURSE...BUT WITHOUT A CENTER
TO INITIALIZE ON...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY MODEL TO MAINTAIN
MUCH ACCURACY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH HAS REVEALED
THAT THE LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SINKING SOUTHWARD...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT GUIDANCE IS ON TRACK.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&max=61
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 155
Loc:
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The broad low-pressure area in the Central Gulf of Mexico that was
previously mentioned continues to flare up in addition to 96L. If you
look at the 18Z model, it spins up a low which could be tropical
toward Texas late tomorrow evening. Is this what it could be picking
up on, or is it just messed up due to 96L having no clearly defined
center?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
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Just watching , which showed an area of concern in the Atlantic near the islands. I waited for Jim Cantore to comment, but he didn't. Anyone have any info on that...it's now showing on the site.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think that what has been confusing is that there are 2 distinct areas in the gulf being talked about. One is a LLC in the GOM and one looks like a MLC trying to get down to the surface. I have attached a graphic to try to make this easier to see (for those not used to staring at satellite data for hours...which isn't many of us but a few ;-)
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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What appears to be the low-level circulation of 96L
is now moving offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. This
is slightly south and east of where the models indicated
on the 00Z run.From what I can tell (as of 0400) on the
infrared satellite, it is moving to the northwest.
I think tomorrow will be interesting for 96L.
Edited by WesnWylie (Wed Jul 07 2010 12:24 AM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I took a look at the satellite image you posted and data that corresponded to it. There continues to be an upper low off the TX coast. At 850 millibars there is a mid to upper level inverted trough that extends from the Yucatan northward to the Northern GOM. At the surface the low over LA was attached to a weak warm front extending East and East-Southeast along the Northern GOM. Hot ridge over the NE USA and a large cutoff Upper Level Low to the ridge's east. That ridge is expected to break down and retrograde west as the large Upper Level Low moves west towards the coast. This pattern suggests no approach to the N GOM coast. Wind shear analysis is hostile to the Yucatan disturbance's north and east. This system will be slow to develop given the overall pattern in the Tropics. There is considerable wind shear all along the Tropics from west to east.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Wed Jul 07 2010 02:44 AM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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The has raised 96L's chance of development from
40% to 50% in the afternoon update. It may be interesting
to see what 96L does this afternoon and tonight; however,
I still think its best chance for developing into a depression
would be late tonight or tomorrow.
Regardless of development, the folks here in Texas will have
to watch out for brief tornadoes starting this evening in
Southeast Texas and spreading northwest through the rest
of the state tomorrow.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has upped the odds of 96L developing to 80% as of the 8 PM EDT update.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
From the Tropical Weather Discussion...
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N94W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR FREEPORT...OR 29N95W. THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 91W-97W. MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE ALSO GENERATED SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER SE AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
88W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 88W AND STRETCH INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND
EASTERN TEXAS. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...
PROVIDING THE SYSTEM WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
NOAA Recon plane is currently flying a research mission in the area. Appear to have a broad circulation possibly centered near 23.5N/ 93.5W. Based on data from NOAA aircraft.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Is it really a named entity or a closed tropical depression... still looks like a Tropical Disturbance (at best) to me... know the planes are flying around looking for a closed center ... has running room but is it more than a tropical disturbance?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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One of the classifications for a TD is convection, which it is lacking. Though they went ahead and classified it, even though it looks bad.. I just don't get it.. TD2 is here everyone, expecting advisory shortly with a TS watches/warnings from south Texas to the borderline of Mexico, a bit south of there as well.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yeah best track has it as a depression, but it's actually looking weaker now, so they may hold off making it official.
And they did... Tropical Storm Warnings from Baffin Bay, TX southward to San Fernando in Mexico.
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