Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995


TROPICAL STORM MOKE LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 683 (Milton), US Major: 683 (Milton), FL Any: 683 (Milton), FL Major: 683 (Milton)
FlHurricane Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracking 🌀 Since 1995
HypeScale:
2.25
0510
Communication
Storm Data
Content
Follow & Connect
Facebook   Twitter/X 🌎 National Hurricane Center
Login to remove ads
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development
      #88872 - Thu Aug 12 2010 02:48 PM

Okay...we know it's been a bust up to now...TUTT and TUTT lows everywhere again this year and like last year more fizzle than bang. Took a look at models and discussions and a cold front...a dry front for we southerners is expected to drop in for the weekend and set up either along the GOM coast or slightly south where both the GFS and ECMWF have a low expected to develop along the front. Current thinking is the GFS is way overblown and the ECMWF has a weak low which mets favor. There is considerable dry Saharan air affecting a good chunk of the Atlantic Ocean and a deep upper low over the Central Atlantic with extending trough southwest in a curve all the way back through the Caribbean and stops near Yucatan...Shear analysis - 30 to 40 knot gradient winds from the GOM extending NE along the Atlantic coast; upper ridge over the Eastern US.

Patience..Patience...Patience...

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lonelymike
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 6
Loc: Covington County Alabama
Re: Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development [Re: berrywr]
      #88873 - Thu Aug 12 2010 05:29 PM

Dr, Jeff Masters has a good discussion on his blog at the Weather Underground talking about the slow start to the season. Basically said verticak instability is low in the Atlantic Basin. Until the instability increases it will continue to be a slow season.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development [Re: berrywr]
      #88883 - Fri Aug 13 2010 12:22 PM

I think by this coming up Monday (or possibly Sunday?) there will be two areas to watch for development. The first is the possible redevelopment of TD 5 as it re-curves back into the Gulf of Mexico. If it does manage to get back into the gulf as the models show, it appears that it would have a limited/hard time to get going due to the proximity to land. Just as I am typing this, the 12Z GFS shows the remnants flaring up into a very strong tropical storm or hurricane heading into SE Texas by Wednesday morning, so you never know. The second area that I think will be worth watching is the area in the SW Caribbean. The NAM hints @ development of this area in the next 3 or 4 days along with NOGAPS. This would be another Yucatan-type system if it were to develop. With all this said, I have a feeling that the tropical activity will pick up this next week through the end of August.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88897 - Sat Aug 14 2010 05:02 PM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 17 2010 - 12Z SAT AUG 21 2010
(excerpt of Discussion~danielw)

WELL EASTWARD A INCREASING FAVORABLE MJO/VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES AND ACTUAL MODEL RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE VERDE/EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MID TO
LATE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. GOOD GFS ENS AGREEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIGHT ON TIME.

August 14,2010 at 2000Z


Copyright 2010 © EUMETSAT. All rights reserved

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 14 2010 05:12 PM)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1


Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 4941

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 1920x1080+ resolution.
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center.