CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Aloha Friends! As to be expected as we rapidly approach the peak of Hurricane Season, the tropics are 'heating up', with noticeably increased activity in all oceanic basins.
A Small Depression in the far western EastPac has attained sufficient convection and organization this morning to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Status and thus allocated the name "Fernanda".
Earlier, easterly sheer that had kept the LLC from aligning with the deepest convection has apparently slackened enough to facilitate a better co-location, and thus improved vertical alignment of the cyclone, as evidenced by the development of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature, with the low level center somewhat closer to the deepest and most intense thunderstorms.
I'll let the latest advisory (excerpted) from the , Miami, to speak for itself ...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN (the) CONVECTION ... ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ... THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER ... THE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION ... WITH THE SHIPS / LGEM / HWRF MODELS (to be) NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME ... AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH DECREASING SST'S SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE ... THE FORECAST WILL STAY LOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE ... GIVEN HOW CLOSE FERNANDA IS TO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
So, perhaps the BEST thing that could happen to 'Fernanda' is for it to 'spin up' to a high end Tropical Storm or a low end Hurricane over the next few days, weaken thereafter by the impending 'hostile environmental conditions', and then perhaps having it's remnant circulation passing over or just south of the Hawaiian Islands, hopefully providing some beneficial rain for the 'Big Island' of Hawaii, which is still being adversely affected by persistent drought conditions.
Thus, Fernanda (is) the 'Midget Cyclone' that *could* bring a very humid airmass to the Hawaiian Islands in about a week, and hopefully(!) some beneficial rain, as well.
Also of interest to note is that the storm will cross 140 W longitude in about 2 days, and the official responsibility for tracking and issuing advisories will be *transferred* from the in Miami, to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu.
More on 'Fernanda' as the situation develops ...
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Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 18 2011 01:30 AM)
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CoconutCandy
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Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Tropical Storm Fernanda appears to be staging a comeback this afternoon, local basin time.
Deep convection that had waned in both extent and depth (intensity) during the past 18 hours or so, appears to be returning again, and with a vengeance.
Deep, 'Bursting' type convection, with very cold cloud tops of less than -80 C, have reformed directly over the center of circulation, as the following animated visible satellite imagery clearly shows.
Much has been written in 's Discussions about the cyclone 'possibly' ingesting a more stable and drier airmass to it's north and west, and of the 'marginal' SST's. But, in MHO, (and I do have decades of experience, carefully scrutinizing the convection and convective trends of tropical cyclones with regard to a myriad of thermodynamic considerations) a bit too much has been made of these 'possible factors' in the ongoing development and, especially, the forecast intensity of 'Fernanda'.
It seems that the models are as skiddish during their initialization with regard to convection (or it's lack thereof) as Wall Street Investors about world economic affairs; it can get to be a real 'rollercoaster ride' with regard to intensity forecasting.
I am not too sure *why* the convection had been so sparse and weak during the aforementioned period, and it may well be due to the alluded to 'marginal thermodynamic conditions', or some other unknown factors, possibly related to the ongoing reorganization and internal dynamics of the inner core convection.
But, suffice to say, *neither* (stable airmass nor SST's) appears to be hindering 'Fernanda' this afternoon. The storm remains *VERY* well organized and my surmise is that the latest Advisory and Discussion may well have to backpedal a tad on it's ongoing assessment regarding the 'marginal conditions' and their implied effects (or not!) on 'Fernanda', at least in the short term of the next 6 to 12 hours, and possibly longer.
I will have much more to say about ongoing developments, including some really interesting graphics in a future post, so you may look forward to that at some point.
OK, let's see what the latest forecast discussion, now just out, has to say about this unexpected flare up of deep, bursting convection over the center of Tropical Storm 'Fernanda'. This should be interesting ...
Side Note: 'Fernanda' will cross 140 W longitude tonight and tracking efforts and forecast responsibility will be transferred from the in Miami, to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu.
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Aug 19 2011 05:50 AM)
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