Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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May is becoming unusually busy! Invest 94L over south Florida at 24/18Z near 25.3N 80.4W and moving NNE at 12 kts. Could get blocked by building ridge to the north and under strong low level easterlies get shoved back toward the peninsula later this holiday weekend. This is the place for any long range projections or discussion of long range model outputs on what you think this system will do, if anything, and where it might go. Additional intensification is possible.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 27 2012 12:38 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Model runs are all in fair agreement that something will develop, track to the NE to just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, reverse direction and move SW and, eventually, make landfall between Jacksonville, FL and Savannah, GA. It will be interesting to see if this scenario plays out.
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Michael
PWS
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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Most of the models I'm looking at bring it off the coastal carolinas, then retrograde it into the Fl/Ga area as a very weak system. Maybe Ed or Daniel can answer this, When a system retrogrades, one would think it would naturally get weaker due to the cooler water caused by it's own . Is this normally the case with early season storms? Or I might just be over thinking things, it is still the Preseason.
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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***SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 25
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.***
Greetings everyone. Looks like is getting bullish on this system (developmentally at least), but not shockingly the models don't have a good handle on this system yet. Can anyone take an educated guess on the upper end this system can obtain based on SST's / climatology?
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Up to 80% chance for development now according to ...
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Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08, Hermine '16, Irma '17, Michael '18, Idalia '23, Helene '24
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote:
Greetings everyone. Looks like is getting bullish on this system (developmentally at least), but not shockingly the models don't have a good handle on this system yet. Can anyone take an educated guess on the upper end this system can obtain based on SST's / climatology?
Based on SSTs along its forecast path, 94L could attain quite a lot, but SSTs are but only one part of a tropical cyclone recipe.
Given that it is very early in the season and SSTs are warm, but not hot, SSTs will act as a limiting factor. Of greater impediment to significant development with 94L will likely be the dry air in the region, plus the ongoing shear, although the latter should be diminishing markedly by the end of the weekend, and even the former might, as well.
Considering its current location, subtropical nature, and forecast course, 94L is probably limited to no greater than Cat 2, at the very high end best. So, while "anything's possible," in reality 94L may have a real challenge even becoming a hurricane of any category, assuming it actually gets a name to begin with.
All in all, as of right now 94L is not even named, with no recon reports, little in the way of solid model outputs, and so forecasting max wind speeds is probably best left for when we have more to go on - take all of the above with some grains of salt ;-)
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cieldumort
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Quote:
Most of the models I'm looking at bring it off the coastal carolinas, then retrograde it into the Fl/Ga area as a very weak system. Maybe Ed or Daniel can answer this, When a system retrogrades, one would think it would naturally get weaker due to the cooler water caused by it's own . Is this normally the case with early season storms? Or I might just be over thinking things, it is still the Preseason.
A (Central Dense Overcast) in and of itself is not at all enough to cool the waters along the path of a tropical cyclone. What is really required to cool SSTs in your hypothetical, is a vigorous cyclone either moving slowly, or looping about over the same general area, such that the cool waters from below begin upwelling to the surface enough to cool down the SSTs.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Judging that most of the action is on the east side right now, and it is forecast to go sw, I would not think churning would be as much of an issue as the fact that it is still May. It will go over the Gulf Stream, but shelf waters near the coast still are not all that warm
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON Flight for Saturday morning.
NHC is looking for the system to be a named storm early Sunday morning. Evidenced by the change from INVEST to CYCLONE.
NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 26/1515Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT -- TEAL 71
A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 27/0915Z
D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Satellite imagery suggests that Beryl may have started a more west southwesterly motion in the past couple of hours. Not likely that its a wobble, but its possible. Landfall anywhere from St Augustine to the Georgia/Florida state line late Sunday evening.
ED
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Southwest moving systems are not typically the norm for an extended period of time. Beryl finally has "occluded" itself from the frontal system to its east but the upper low is above the system and reflected all the way up to at least 200 mbs. While it appears to becoming a bit more tropical there is quite a bit of subsidence around the circulation.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Looking at satellite imagery...Beryl appears to be moving more westerly and continues to become progressively tropical as moisture fills in all quadrants. Beryl for the moment has an overall slight elliptical shape from NNE to SSW and there is an upper low above the system. The 593 dm upper ridge/high is centered at 26/12Z over Alabama has moved to Western KY and will likely induce a more west movement as heights rise generally about 20 meters to the north and between 0 and a 10 meter height fall in the past 12 hours to the upper high's south and east.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Sun May 27 2012 01:31 AM)
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ftlaudbob
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Looks like an eye has formed.Would not be surprised if it is a cat 1 at landfall.
(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 27 2012 02:47 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Quote:
Looks like an eye has formed.Would not be surprised if it is a cat 1 at landfall.
(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)
What you are seeing is the convection beginning to close around the low level center of circulation. Storms don't typically form an eye feature until they are much stronger. Take a look at the RGB sat. loop. The cloud tops are white while the low level clouds are more yellow looking.
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Michael
PWS
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