danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Center Location, First Pass Inbound
06:19:30Z
24.550N 89.550W
842.1 mb (~ 24.87 inHg) Pressure Level
1,534 meters(~ 5,033 feet) Altitude
1002.3 mb(~ 29.60 inHg) - Min Surface Pressure
From 1° at 3 knots (From the N at ~ 3.4 mph) Flt level wind
20.6°C(~ 69.1°F) Air Temperature
16.7°C(~ 62.1°F) Air Dewpoint
5 knots(~ 5.8 mph) Peak Flt Level wind
12 knots(~ 13.8 mph) SFMR Peak surface wind
0 mm/hr(~ 0 in/hr) Rain rate
7.2 knots (~ 8.3 mph)Estimated Surface wind
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 06:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 6:19:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°33'N 89°33'W (24.55N 89.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 376 miles (606 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,452m (4,764ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the ENE (75°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155° at 51kts (From the SSE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) from the flight level center at 6:05:00Z
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 04 2013 03:02 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Latest track shifts it a bit west, but the forecast confidence in the track details is lower than ever. Chances that Karen becomes a hurricane are very low now, so the hurricane watches may be dropped. The biggest question is if the system makes landfall on the tip of Louisiana or not, or if what is suggested by the model occurs when the through approaches.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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If and when Karen does turn east....she has a good chance of being a hurricane Saturday night as she starts moving ENE or NE...this also depends though if she stays on more of a ENE direction cause she will be over water longer and less influenced by the gulf coast. Question really will be landfall on Sunday or Monday on where she comes inland.....near Pensacola or Big Bend.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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A recent recon vortex message notes the center may be re-forming South and Southeast of the current center, which may change the forecast track quite a bit at 5.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I am intrigued by the most recent HWRF run. Is that a reliable model....I don't remember? I know a local Met uses it a fair amount in his forecasts.
HWRF 12Z run
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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ralphfla
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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after a burst of deep convection near and east of the center earlier
this afternoon...the low-level center of Karen is again exposed
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ralphfla
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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Quote:
I am intrigued by the most recent HWRF run. Is that a reliable model....I don't remember? I know a local Met uses it a fair amount in his forecasts.
HWRF 12Z run
When a track of a storm is made it is not made by 1 model it is combo. There is always going to be 1 that has it going more west and 1 having it go more east to pick out the 1 from the 12Z Hwrf is just 1 of many the has it way more to the west and does as good or better but lol
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I think the EXTRAP model and the Satellites have a really good handle on Karen's Track.
At this time, 0130 AM EDT Saturday Oct 5th the LLCC is moving near 290 degrees.
That's just north of due West. EURO and UKMET camp.
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ralphfla
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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the
winds are gradually decreasing. On this basis...the initial
intensity has been lowered to 40 knots in this advisory. Tropical
storms rarely recover after being strongly damaged by
shear...especially if the environment is as dry as it is over the
western Gulf of Mexico.
i think we can say Good Bye to this storm
Edited by ralphfla (Sat Oct 05 2013 04:37 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Surprisngly, visible sat shows convection wrapping back close to the LLCOC.
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ralphfla
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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Karen has essentially remained stationary for the last several hours
and that lack of motion...coupled with increasing upper-level winds
ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough...has increased the
shear significantly across the cyclone. The result is that
convection has weakened and become displaced well to the east and
southeast of the low-level circulation center. Satellite
classifications from supported keeping Karen as a borderline
tropical storm at 00Z...but the lack of convection near the center
since then requires a downgrade to depression status at the 03z
advisory time. Given that the vertical wind shear is forecast to
get even stronger over the next 2 days...re-strengthening back to
tropical storm status is not likely...especially since the
mid-levels of the troposphere will become increasingly drier
Not going back to a storm will be lucky to hold onto a depression
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