Stork
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Palm City, FL
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Quote:
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 142.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
[...]
FORECASTER POWELL
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=ANA
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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Hawaii is really going to have to watch this one. Ana looks quite a bit more threatening than Iselle was for a couple of reasons. First, Ana should be approaching from the southeast which will mean it should have warmer SST's to pass over on its approach. Second, shear doesn't look like it's going to be much of an issue with Ana.
I think the intensity forecast from CPHC looks pretty conservative. SST's aren't super-warm (27-27.5 C) but I would think warm enough to support at least a strong Cat 2 storm.
Still a lot of model runs to go before the track becomes clear but if I were anywhere in the Hawaiian Islands I'd be starting to prepare now for a hurricane.
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CoconutCandy
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Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Aloha from Hurricane Harassed Hawaii ...
Unfortunately, Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) "ANA" is still on track to pay it's unwelcomed visitation upon these Beautiful Hawaiian Islands, which may not be quite so beautiful in it's wake.
A sort of "worse case scenario" appears to be unfolding. Here's why:
Unlike Hurricane "ISELLE" (a tropical storm upon landfall) only a few short months ago, which *smack dabbed* into the Big Islands' MASSIVE Mountainous Mauna Loa and had the Living Bejesus knocked out of it (mountainous terrain utterly shreds tropical cyclones to smithereens) ...
... instead, Hurricane "ANA" is currently expected to brush by *just under the southern tip* of the Big Island, (thus, unfortunately, avoiding it's untimely demise at the hands of Mountainous Mauna Loa), and then proceed to make a gentle arc up towards the Smaller Islands of Maui, Oahu and Kauai.
In fact, the latest official track has "ANA" passing *within* a mere 20 miles (Yikes!) of the south coast of Oahu, which would put us in the Strongest, most Dangerous part of the Cyclone; the much dreaded and feared "Eyewall", that horrific maelstrom of damaging wind madly encircling the Calm 'Eye of the Storm'.
Sustained Winds are Currently Forecast to be 80 MPH as it nears Oahu, with GUSTS to 100 MPH, which would then be Amplified even further, due to "Orographic Enhancement" with Oahu's low-slung Mountains, which would NOT act to diminish the storm but, as mentioned, further amplify it's winds.
If the Current track bears out, Oahu is in Grave Danger, the likes of which Modern Metropolis Honolulu has NOT seen in it's Recorded History (dating back to at least 150 years!).
Upper Atmospheric Steering Currents remain *very uncertain* this far out, so please: Let's all *Hope and Pray* that ANA's forecast track veers progressively towards the LEFT with each upcoming advisory, taking the Center of the Cyclone further and further away in it's "closest point of approach", as it skirts south of the Smaller Islands. Seriously: Honolulu does NOT need a Hurricane !!!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Northerly windshear and some dry air entrainment continue to weaken Tropical Storm Ana. CPHC forecast track is now offshore the Islands and the intensity has been reduced significantly. The disruption of the system is evident is satellite imagery and CPHC has delayed intensification to hurricane strength another 24 hours and they have noted that some of the models no longer intensify Ana to a hurricane. The ridge to the north has not yet retreated eastward as previously expected - which adjusts the track southward and keeps Ana further away from the Hawaiian Islands.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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AF Recon flew over to Hawaii last night and investigated Ana enroute. Winds are now sustained at 70mph and Ana still has a chance to become a hurricane later today.
ED
Hawaii Satellite Image
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