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cieldumort
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Posts: 2766
Loc: Austin, Tx

Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

#100053 - Fri Aug 23 2019 05:17 PM

5PM EST 24 August 2019 Update
FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Dorian is traversing an environment characterized by moderate vertical wind shear and low mid-level humidities. However, shear is forecast to drop by midday Sunday, and remain low or even very low through Tuesday. As the well-defined TC crosses over warm waters while in this very favorable shear, the potential for dry air intrusions could be low, and in fact the official forecast calls for Dorian to become a hurricane within 72 hours.

Key Messages:

Quote:

1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday.

Original Entry
We are just a few weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are several systems we are monitoring, three of which are close to or closing in on land: 98L, 99L, W Gulf Low (Very strong 90L candidate).

As these systems are all tending to form in the Western Atlantic, as has been a trend this year, they are far more likely to affect land or interests close to land, including the south and/or southeast U.S.

As of 5PM EDT today August 23, official odds for development are as follows: 98L 90%, 99L 50% (could be conservative), Gulf Low: TBD. Was still under 10% at the 2PM and thus not listed at that time, but this system has continued to impress, with surface pressures falling some and winds increasing some throughout the day today.

Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Invest 98L Lounge, Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track

SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 25 2019 06:31 AM)

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker

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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL

Re: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

[Re: cieldumort]
#100058 - Sat Aug 24 2019 09:49 PM

Seems a lot of the Dorian and 98L graphics and links are mixed

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cieldumort
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Posts: 2766
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

[Re: lunkerhunter]
#100059 - Sun Aug 25 2019 12:32 AM

Quote:

Seems a lot of the Dorian and 98L graphics and links are mixed

Indeed. It's on 's end, not ours. I've removed the links until they are corrected to prevent any confusion.

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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL

Re: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

[Re: cieldumort]
#100067 - Sun Aug 25 2019 06:03 PM

recording Caribbean mosaic radar for Dorian http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?460

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