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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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General Long Range Discussion
      #114076 - Wed May 11 2022 09:28 AM

06Z GFS showing a western Caribbean disturbance moving in the Gulf in about 2 weeks, been off/and on, but something worth watching to see if it persists or if other models latch onto it. That said, it's highly unlikely to materialize. What these patterns usually indicate is the environment has a better than usual chance for something to develop during the long range time frame, but not that it will, and definitely not how it tracks even if it does.

In this case it means ether the western Caribbean or even more likely the eastern Pacific may see something get going in about two weeks. (The area for development is pretty large)


Edited by CFHC (Wed May 11 2022 01:59 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114078 - Sat May 14 2022 07:41 AM

The area mentioned is still more likely to wind up in the eastern Pacific in about a week than what the GFS shows in the Caribbean, but it will be worth watching either way.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114079 - Sat May 14 2022 01:36 PM

The GFS and its ensembles are remarkably consistant from run to run with something forming the caribbean in about a week from Sunday, (long range takes it into the gulf and even becomes a cat 2/3 hurricane near Florida's west coast). However, the euro and other models still are suggesting the energy goes into the eastern pacific. So something to watch for.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114080 - Sun May 15 2022 07:53 AM

This morning 6z GFS and the euro are split. Euro with weaker into the east pacific (still more likely) and the GFS whichi gets a system going off the Yucatan peninsula this Saturday then bends in back into the Gulf and over Florida near Fort Myers as a cat 2 (close to 3) on late on the Tuesday the 24th/early May 25th.

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EMS
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114081 - Sun May 15 2022 08:20 AM

Thanks Mike. It’s hard not to want to disregard the GFS given it’s May and we’re talking 7-10 days out but the run-to-run consistency in spinning something up in the Caribbean has been remarkable as you say.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: EMS]
      #114083 - Mon May 16 2022 09:33 AM

A weak system near or over central America is starting to become the more preferred between the two model extremes. GFS is usually a good indicator to watch an area, but typically only use it for that, not that something definitely will develop. As a general rule don't rely on models before something develops for track or intensity, but it can be used to say watch this area in a few days to see if anything starts to occur.

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scottsvb
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114084 - Mon May 16 2022 10:39 AM

GFS always sees a May or June storm in the western caribbean every year with feedback erros and no other true model support after 84hrs... every year! Usually 95% of these develop in the far eastern Pacific if they do. Usual Atlantic systems develop off Florida or the caronlina near Bermuda as a subtropical system in May or early June. GFS again has no model support except again maybe something trying to develop near Mexico but on the pacific side. So until we get the Euro on board or at least the CMC in the western carribean within 3 days.. then I wouldn't take much grain of salt in the GFS after 84hrs

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: scottsvb]
      #114085 - Mon May 16 2022 11:29 AM

NAV genesis near Belize is between 15%-20% http://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/ has that and a few other genesis %. So it's still a nonzero chance something will form near Central America. It's probably enough for the TWO to mention a 10/20% chance soon anyway, but I still doubt it develops. (GFS has is around 39%)

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scottsvb
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114086 - Mon May 16 2022 12:25 PM

Agree with what you are seeing.. GFS will also continue to slowly push back development.. went from Friday a few days ago till now Sunday and soon tonight it will be Monday till eventually nothing comes of it or a system in the far eastern pacific.. I'm not saying it won't happen in the caribbean,,, just we've seen this for 20 years on the GFS in May!

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scottsvb
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: scottsvb]
      #114087 - Wed May 18 2022 12:14 AM

Look at the late night 0z run of the GFS... it contihues to push back development because it is having feedback errors on T-storms being more aggressive thus forming a low pressure system near Belize and Honduras. This happens every May/early June. Can't trust GFS after 72 hours unless another major model (Euro) can also show the same. As of now, can't expect to see anything but a moisture surge into Florida starting Friday into early next week.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114088 - Thu May 19 2022 07:42 AM

Just to follow up the GFS first pushed back the timeframe, then did eventually drop this. (or pushing whatever is left into the east pacific) Beyond this there's a phantom storm in the very long range time in the area typical for early season development. At that long range it just means look in that general area to see what the trends are, and particularly when the other models get into that timeframe.

As for track and intensity, until a storm actually forms, take model runs with a grain of salt. Ida is a good example of this.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114094 - Wed May 25 2022 09:47 AM

0z Euro today shows an area in the Gulf developing around 240 hours out, while the 6z GFS shows an area start to develop northeast of the Bahamas on May 31st, then move toward the Northwest to near New Bern, NC as a weak depression or Tropical Storm by June 3rd,.

No super strong sign of anything yet, but around the Bahamas and the Gulf will be areas to watch next week.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114096 - Fri May 27 2022 04:48 PM

a lot depends on the east pacific (quickly) developing system currently tracked as 91E. This may rapidly strengthen in the next few days before impacting southern Mexico, and may get a chance to cross over into the Atlantic (after being greatly disrupted) so there's a chance we'll need to watch it in Florida very late next week at least for a lot of rain. Euro shows it remaining weak once disrupted, and shear is high which should keep any development chances low in the Gulf. However, the area in the East Pacific it's approaching is prime for Rapid Intensification on the pacific side before landfall in Mexico.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114098 - Sat May 28 2022 05:54 AM

Agatha has formed in the East Pacific, and may cross over into the Bay of Campeche (much weaker, and no longer a tropical storm by the time it gets over Mexico), the GFS, Euro, CMC, and Icon all show the possibilities, with GFS forming the furthest away. The Euro, Canadian, and Icon models show that Florida may need to watch this one in over a week, so it'll be something to watch in the coming week or two.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114120 - Thu Jun 09 2022 12:13 PM

General long range runs of the GFS have had impacts along the gulf in over a week or so for the past few runs, however, other models have concentrated on the east pacific. The split happens around June 15th, where Euro (and Canadian) moves some energy in the Southwest Caribbean into the east pacific, while the GFS forms and curves it north into the Gulf. Splitting the difference would be the Yucatan Peninsula.

The area to watch the middle of next week is the Southwest Caribbean, beyond that too soon to tell, but most likely it'll move into the Yucatan and not form on the Atlantic side.


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Robert
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Re: General Long Range Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #114123 - Tue Jun 21 2022 04:54 PM

Gfs Started hinting at low pressure near lesser antillies middle of last week for 1st of july. Now euro, NOGAPS are hinting at low pressure there getting going the 1st, also CMC is shows a full depression or storm now in 12Z run. GFS looses it in carribean, euro takes it across to central america, NOGAPS ends early, CMC has it hitting Hispanola.....should look for the 27th, and 28th for something mid atlantic.
Currently a large wave exiting africa, with another behind.

Edited by Robert (Tue Jun 21 2022 04:55 PM)


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