cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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An impressive pre-season area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has formed and has now been Invest tagged, 91L. Even though the chance for significant development is modest, given the location close to land and certain impacts regardless of development, we are starting a Lounge on this hybrid system.
Conditions for development into a bona fide tropical cyclone are fair this week, but are expected to become less conducive by the weekend. Whether or not 91L gets a name, moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the peninsula through the weekend.
NHC determined that Invest 91L has sufficiently organized to be classified as a Tropical Cyclone and advisoires on TD began at 4PM CDT June 1, 2023, and the title has been updated accordingly. (Arlene as of 1PM CT June 2)
Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jun 02 2023 01:48 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Looks like 91 L is expected to head south now and conditions will not be as wet for Central Florida.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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50/50 as of this morning. Satellite presentation looks fairly impressive, but there is some SW to NE vertical sheer evident. The models are in agreement on a slow southerly drift toward western Cuba.
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Michael
PWS
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I'm a bit surprised that this fella is gaining traction. Haven't had a chance to check models, but wanted to say hi to everyone and welcome back! 
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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And so it begins - 2023 is off to a fast start.
All this week in SFL we have been under a flood watch... its the normal afternoon thunderstorms but they have been really strong and occurring over the same spots. Two weeks ago we even had hail which is very rare.
Quick check of the models show south motion so this could drop a lot of rain on already saturated ground.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Why is it that this system is expected to move south rather than the usual northward direction that most GOMEX storms take ?
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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The cyclone keeps finding itself occasional sweet spots within an otherwise less-than-ideal shear environment. In addition, it remains less deep than we often see in the tropics, unsurprising given its hybrid origins, and the worst of the shearing impacts higher up in the atmosphere are not always impacting it.
This morning recon is finding several areas, primarily in the northeast quadrant, with winds worthy of a named storm.
Track-wise, there are hints in some models of the system hanging on despite increasingly hostile shear over the weekend, and looping back to the northeast after a forecast track towards Cuba. Resilient systems can sometimes be cat-like, with multiple lives.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Shear really blew this thing apart. The low level spin is still intact but nothing can wrap around it. Looks more like a late season storm that reached the end of its run.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Torrential rain here in Wekiva of Orlando. Torrential. There is likely some flooding damage that is out of the ordinary.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Please share... we are parched over here along the coast in central Volusia- going on 2 weeks w/o measurable precip.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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