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Dolly in the Tropical Atlantic is tracking west towards the Antilles, but likely to encounter more shear.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 687 (Milton), US Major: 687 (Milton), FL Any: 687 (Milton), FL Major: 687 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

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CFHC

Reged:
Posts: 215
Loc: East Central Florida

Re: 96L Lounge

[Re: MikeC]
#116166 - Thu Aug 27 2026 10:37 AM

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly (formerly AL96) located in the central Tropical Atlantic, at 11:00 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

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MikeC
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Posts: 4849
Loc: Orlando, FL

Re: 96L Lounge

[Re: CFHC]
#116167 - Thu Aug 27 2026 01:46 PM

Long range models generally aren't favorible for Dolly down the road, UKMet and Canadian, not withstanding. (Although the UKMet develops a second system nearby) Timing is late next week for it being even potentially close to the US, but odds are high that nothing much comes of it. Dolly has at best 24 hours before getting ripped apart.

Edited by CFHC (Thu Aug 27 2026 02:09 PM)

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cieldumort
Moderator

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Posts: 2799
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Dolly Lounge

[Re: cieldumort]
#116168 - Thu Aug 27 2026 02:44 PM

Looking at some of the 12Z Global runs on Dolly at 7.5 days out (180 hours)

ICON at 180 hours has Dolly near the Bahamas at 987mb

EURO AI has Dolly all washed out

GFS AI has Dolly all washed out

CANADIAN has Dolly just south of Florida, re-intensifying

UKMET (168 hours out is end of this run - 7 days) 993mb near or over the Bahamas

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