The area of low pressure that's been hanging around east of Bermuda and which has actually seen NHC odds decrease as of late could end up hanging around even longer and encounter a forecast of improving conditions for development starting as soon as this coming weekend and lasting well into the rest of the month thereafter, if verified.
In response to increased odds of this disturbance staying around for longer, encountering a more favorable environment and with a fair chance of tracking closer to or even over Bermuda, we are starting a Lounge on this system at this time.
Earlier today this disturbance did get Invest tagged, 98L.
98L History as of this entry
2026-09-17 00:00 32.4 -57.4 25 KTS
2026-09-16 18:00 32.1 -56.4 25 KTS
2026-09-16 12:00 31.5 -55.6 25 KTS
DeepMind FNv3 50-member ensembles on 98L. Most recent run advertising about a coin toss of becoming a named storm.
Credit: TC-ATLAS
DeepMind WNv3 (Most recent DeepMind version) ensembles run from 18Z today
Most but not all members that do develop 98L also keep it well east of Bermuda
25-30 knots of northeasterly shear have decapitated 98L today further allowing in copious dry air, and models have drastically reduced near-term development chances, unsurprisingly.
While development potential in the next 48 hours is likely much lower now, models suggest that the Invest still hangs around for quite a while and conditions could become more favorable heading into next week - if forecasts verify.
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
