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Monitoring Invest 93L off the east coast, likely fish storm, but still some coastal impacts (dangerous surf, costal flooding).
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 10 (Isaias), US Major: 740 (Milton), FL Any: 10 (Isaias), FL Major: 740 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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93L Lounge
      #116344 - Sat Oct 17 2026 06:39 PM

An overwhelming majority of all models and their ensembles are now forecasting the development of a strong or very strong non-tropical low near or over the Gulf Stream roughly east of North Carolina as soon as late Sunday. This region is now an official NHC 20% Area of Interest and given its potential to transition into a strong subtropical or even tropical cyclone and have significant coastal impacts regardless, we are starting a Lounge on this feature at this time, Invest TBD.



Above: Water Vapor image of precursor system 10-17-26-2225z. SST contours added. Image credit: Weathernerds.org

2026-10-19 18:00 33.8N 70.6W 45KTS
During the day on October 19, 2026, the non-tropical low pressure system we have been tracking was Invest-tagged, 93L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 19 2026 10:06 PM)

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Gulf Stream Coastal Low w Tropical Potential [Re: cieldumort]
      #116345 - Sat Oct 17 2026 06:46 PM

Today's most recent DeepMind FNv3 1000-member ensemble advertising a 61% chance of reaching 34+ knots


Image credit: TC-ATLAS

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Re: Gulf Stream Coastal Low w Tropical Potential [Re: cieldumort]
      #116347 - Sun Oct 18 2026 03:30 PM



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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #116351 - Tue Oct 20 2026 01:41 AM


93L 10-20-26-05z MSLP 850 hPa Vorticity SST analysis overlay atop IR. Image credits: TC-ATLAS

The cyclone is trying, but relatively cool SSTs as well as some shear are clearly challenging the attempted transition, so far

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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #116352 - Tue Oct 20 2026 01:50 AM

That 'little bit of shear'

Credit: CIMSS

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