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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Around the Corner
      #14307 - Sun May 16 2004 12:54 AM

Another season will soon be underway, although it could still be quite some time before the first named storm arrives on the scene (visit the Storm Forum for details). A cordial welcome to our new members and a 'welcome back' to all of our 'frequent trackers'. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season:

ENSO/SST - the equatorial Pacific should remain neutral at least through October, thus no hinderance from an El Nino and no aid from a La Nina throughout the season. Around October, a weak El Nino may finally get underway, but by then the season will be rapidly on the decline. SST anomalies are neutral across the entire North Atlantic, except that the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic east of Florida are below normal - and this is a recent event. The temperature anomaly in the GOM have declined just during the latter part of April and the first part of May - and a warmer than normal Atlantic has become neutral during the same time period. In the Pacific, negative anomalies have increased along the equator from the coast of South America to about 125W longitude; not a true La Nina, but enough to keep El Nino in check for awhile.

The Southern Jet - is finally on the wane after maintaining unusual strength throughout March and April. It is slowly beginning to lift to the north and weaken in the central and eastern Atlantic but is still hanging on in the western Atlantic.

ITCZ - has been all over the place this winter. In February it still looked like June. In March it was nudged far to the south - at times even south of the equator - and produced a uniquely active season in the South Atlantic with a hurricane and a couple of tropical storms. In April it recovered northward again in the eastern half of the basin, but it is still far to the south of where it normally would be in the western third of the Atlantic. Above the equator, it is still non-existent over Africa.

The Forecast - As stated earlier in the Storm Forum, I still anticipate a normal season and with the El Nino delay, a later season with 10 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 (perhaps even 3) major hurricanes. Later this summer, strong waves may well exit the west African coast, weaken as they cross the central Atlantic and then re-emerge in the Caribbean. Active zones are still difficult to nail down, but the Western Caribbean, Eastern Gulf, all of Florida and the Bahamas seem to be the areas of greatest risk. Later in the season you can add eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes to the list.

Analog Years - This year there seems to be no such thing as a 'good' analog year. I've spent quite a bit a time over the past few months looking at the past 100 seasons and the only year that appears frequently in most of the analysis is 1963. Other years that had some merit were 1906, 1924, 1926, 1945 and 1949. I notice that even Dr Gray had trouble with this category since all of his analog selections in the December Outlook never made it to the April Forecast selections.

A reminder to all to make your posts in the proper Forum and to keep a courteous decorum. It matters not whether you are new to the excitement of storm tracking or whether you have been doing this for 50 years - we all visit here for the same reasons - to learn, to teach and to share. A special thanks to Mike and John for giving us a chance to do this, and best wishes to all of you as we start another season.
Cheers,
ED

Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

For 'first storm' starting dates, see the Storm Forum.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Around the Corner
      #14309 - Sun May 16 2004 07:42 AM

Yes indeed the season is around the corner and the question is how will it pan out when all is set and done.Ed you have a normal season forecast and I have an above average season forecast 13/8/3 but this is good to have distint opinions because we can have great discussions during the season about the factors that will guide the season one way to another.So see all down the long road during the season and I hope anyone is affected directly by a hurricane but anyway be prepared for the best and hope for the best.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Sun May 16 2004 07:43 AM)


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Around the Corner
      #14311 - Sun May 16 2004 02:57 PM

It's great to still be here for another season...looking forward to 'seeing' some old friends...

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
SSTs and La Nina
      #14312 - Sun May 16 2004 05:00 PM

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif
cooler water upwelling still there


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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
Re: Around the Corner
      #14315 - Mon May 17 2004 07:47 AM

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004


ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A SPURIOUS
TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE EFFECT OF THIS LOW ON
GUIDANCE IS TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE SRN ZONES. WILL DISCOUNT THIS
EFFECT...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
Will see....


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Around the Corner
      #14316 - Mon May 17 2004 08:00 AM

Another mention out of the NWS in Melbourne

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

WEAK H50 TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX DROPS INTO THE WRN GOMEX AND
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE (GFS/GGEM/ECM/NGP) WANT TO MAINTAIN AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN
THIS FEATURE...DRIFTING IT SLOWLY EAST TWD THE FL STRAITS/CUBA AND
AIDING IN THE SPINUP OF WHAT WOULD BE A HYBRID OR AT THE VERY LEAST
A BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED TROPICAL LOW OVER THE WRN/CTRL CARIBBEAN.
PLAYING DEVIL'S ADVOCATE FOR A MINUTE...DEVELOPMENT/ADVERTISED TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE WOULD TIGHTEN PGRAD UP QUITE A BIT ALONG THE FL SE
COAST TWD DAY 7. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID...AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS TAKING
PLACE AS THE H50 GOMEX LOW THAT WAS ADVERTISED A WEEK OR TWO AGO BY
THE GFS/ECM NEVER MATERIALIZED...AND IT APPEARS THAN SFC DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DEPENDENT UPON BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT - I.E. STRENGTH OF
THE H50 LOW/H25 JETSTRK. WILL GO WITH THE UKMET SOLN...WHICH IS MUCH
WEAKER AT H50...AND SHOWS NOTHING AT THE SFC.



--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Hmmm
      #14317 - Mon May 17 2004 10:46 AM

Interesting discussions there. Probably won't amount to anything, but it'll keep us busy. Anyone know what time Gray's updated forecast comes out? I thought it was supposed to be early June, but I swear I heard it would be out sometime today on TWC. Of course, I was half awake when I thought I heard it, so I could be wrong...

UPDATE: It will be issued 28 May 2004. Guess I was half asleep

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Mon May 17 2004 11:09 AM)


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Hmmm
      #14318 - Mon May 17 2004 11:46 AM

NOAA Phil will release it's outlook today and it will be interesting to see what they say.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Spike
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
Re: Hmmm
      #14320 - Mon May 17 2004 12:32 PM

Yes, another new storm season! I'm looking forward to meeting some new storm fanatics,trackers, and hobbiests. I'm excited about getting some storms this season, and my uncle who lives in north carolina is a storm chaser might come down here and do some work so its all good looking forward to a new season.


--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
NOAA releases outlook
      #14322 - Mon May 17 2004 12:51 PM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html

Another active season ahead as they say in their outlook.Also interesting the landfall probabilities.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: NOAA releases outlook
      #14325 - Mon May 17 2004 01:09 PM

That was last years outlook.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: NOAA releases outlook
      #14326 - Mon May 17 2004 01:09 PM

Couldn't see the landfall probs Cy-eye, where are they on that page?
------------------------------------------
I think the Western Caribbean gets cranking by end of the week with our first storm which may mimmick the Super Typhoon expected to curve just east of Japan. The H2O profiles are fairly similar east of NC and east of Japan. I'm expecting that the/a storm will form south of Florida and Cuba and trend north than Northeastward possibly bombing out off the coast of NC (or the Delmarva) as a Nor'easter post-phasing. I put in my prediction on the first named storm of the year in the Storm Forum, so hopefully I win the contest. Most likely effects if I'm right will be good surfing on the Atlantic side of Florida and probably some squally weather for the Bahamas. Here's the post:

First storm of the season gets cranking late this week or on the weekend. I don't see much more than a mid-grade Tropical Storm, but when it phases off the east coast as a direct teleconnection to Super Typhoon N(whatever) recurving near Japan, it should bomb out and become a fairly strong Nor'easter.

Let's go with development for Friday south of Florida and coming up on the east side possibly swiping coastal North Carolina mid next week (depending on how close the Super Typhoon gets to coastal Japan).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: NOAA releases outlook
      #14328 - Mon May 17 2004 01:32 PM

NOAA fairly consistent with every other prediction scheme we've seen so far this year. Right within my 14/8/3 prediction. I, too, posted my prediction in the other forum, but basically I'm calling for our first TS somewhere in the GOM by mid-June (June 14th-ish). So far, all the big signs are there for an active season: ENSO, SOI, high SSTs, relaxed trades, etc. If these conditions hold through to August, then BAM. Like HF, I hope we see a lot of storms that merely spin the fish. Andrew came in a season that was fairly 'inactive,' so it's not the number of storms, it's where they go. Will have to keep our eyes to the tropics towards the end of the week for Steve's gutsy call.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: NOAA releases outlook
      #14329 - Mon May 17 2004 01:59 PM

Steve they didn't make a landfall probability chart but only they generalize about what to expect.I will wait for Dr Gray's outlook at the 28th and he will bring those landfall probabilities.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: NOAA releases outlook
      #14331 - Mon May 17 2004 04:18 PM

Thanks eye.

>>Will have to keep our eyes to the tropics towards the end of the week for Steve's gutsy call.

Considering the transformations that will be required to make whatever ends up down there to "tropical", a call for Friday is way too early. It would probably be Saturday or Sunday if anything's coming out of that pattern. Anyway, I'm sticking with Friday. If nothing else, we should have something identifiable as "a go" by then else all the models are out to lunch.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Hey y'all!
      #14332 - Mon May 17 2004 04:40 PM

I'm back from my 6 month tropical slumber now, and in appropriate fashion, there is a slight chance for Caribbean development.

The models are pretty much the only thing that I can go on at this point. The three that show development (NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS) also show the a more favorable shear pattern towards in coming days.

The other thing that favors development is the heat buildup that will be coming off of South America in the next few days. I don't usually notice things like that, but Joe B.'s video showed it fairly well. It looks like we have a couple of things to base any development predictions on.

IWIC seasonal comes out May 25th, not much more of a wait for you all.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey kevin...
      #14333 - Mon May 17 2004 05:33 PM

Judging by your note that the forecast is due out May 25th, I'm assuming you buried the hatcet with Jason and Rob and re-joined IWX?
Steve



--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 17 2004 09:33 PM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Hello again....
      #14334 - Mon May 17 2004 06:12 PM

Hi everyone...time to get everything dusted off and ready for the season...good to see you all again...

If there is anyone within driving distance of Panama City, Max Mayfield and one of the NOAA P-3's will be at the PC/Bay Co Airport on Wednesday...we will be out there for a meet and greet as well, so if you are in the neighborhood, come by and say Hi!



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Hey kevin...
      #14335 - Mon May 17 2004 07:58 PM

Yep, I put my differences aside with Jason and Rob and decided to get back at it.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 17 2004 09:36 PM)


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: NOAA releases outlook
      #14336 - Mon May 17 2004 09:00 PM

Looks like I've checked back in just in time to see Steve sticks his neck out. I do admire your guts.

Appears another above average season may be forming. Can not wait to get this years education from all of you.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 17 2004 09:38 PM)


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