garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM NONAME (AL882004) ON 20040525 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040525 1200 040526 0000 040526 1200 040527 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 26.4N 73.1W 28.5N 69.4W 29.4N 64.4W
BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 25.2N 74.0W 26.5N 72.2W 26.6N 69.8W
A98E 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 76.4W 24.7N 76.8W 25.3N 76.9W
LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 24.8N 75.3W 26.1N 74.3W 26.7N 73.0W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040527 1200 040528 1200 040529 1200 040530 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 59.7W 31.8N 51.5W 36.5N 43.4W 43.3N 38.0W
BAMM 25.7N 67.7W 23.7N 66.7W 22.7N 68.6W 22.2N 71.8W
A98E 24.9N 77.1W 24.9N 77.1W 24.6N 77.8W 25.4N 79.6W
LBAR 26.8N 71.5W 26.5N 69.8W 26.0N 68.8W 24.1N 66.4W
SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 71.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I doubt that this will become anything, although it does look impressive. I would not call this Alex, maybe "backwards" Lenny!
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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That is not for the invest 91L but it is a test that they are making for more than 2 weeks as it says AL88.Also the direction that it says there is 290 WNW but it is moving eastward.In other words that information does not have to do with our invest 91L.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 1500 UTC 1011 MB LOW WAS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N72W WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 28N64W AND S FROM THE LOW INTO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE LOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUDS BUT
HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM
HAS VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT THIS COULD DIMINISH AS
IT ACCELERATES SOME MOVING TOWARD THE NE NEAR THE CREST OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR . SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
63W-70W.
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Good call Ceye. 290 can't be our storm. Tell me about Al88 2 weeks out. I don't understand. Thanks Gary
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes Look at this loop and you see where it is going in the next two days.The system may do aloop itself someone else mention this earlier.With the system moving so fast and seperating itself from the shear I do think it might develop.We could be tracking this one for awhile.The LLC better developed than I expected might have to eat some crow on this one.
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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As i posted last night they wont upgrade till the system has TS around the center of low presure. We have the low all the models been saying for over 1 week, but like a week ago I wasnt sure if this would be a tropical low at first or not. Everything has come true it looks and though its not still a deprssion or storm, it might be by tomorrow if the convection bursts. scottsvb
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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well isnt she pretty suddenly
quite interesting
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'd say "he's" (Alex=male) looking pretty ragged, but moving pretty fast...not sure this is going to develop but it bears watching. 
vis loop
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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generically women in my mind..
like the earlier storms were always refered to as she or her ... and think she's nameless
also...water temps in that part of the atlantic are i think pretty marginal, nothing to write home about
looks nice on visible though but wouldn't bet on her ever dressing up like a guy and going by alex
nice visible to watch tho.. makes your blood pump and you can almost smell the start of the real show
imagine the script is still being written
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Apparently there were some ships in the area confirming the winds (25-30k with stronger ones on the west side) and there was a low level center. So my guess is the system was at least an STD if not a TD.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the system has peaked already, and was likely a subtropical depression or storm earlier. i doubt it will ever be classified, but check here: http://australiansevereweather.com/cyclones/tc2004bt.htm in about a month or so, the track will likely be on there
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hurrricane_run
Unregistered
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theres almost no TS near the center if somthing doesnt refire there there it probably has peaked and old news
check it out http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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You might be right but when you look at the WV loop the shear goes light at about 1:00 to the 7:00 position.If the LLC should survive to this point the possibilty of development might still exist.It will probably be in this position in 24>36hrs. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Edited by javlin (Tue May 25 2004 10:50 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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91L... think this system was likely a depression or weak storm yesterday evening. same low center as today was there, with cumulonnimbus bursting on the northern periphery. i saw some 35-40kt rain flagged vectors and 20-25kt vectors on the western side on scatterometer (away from the center) in yesterday's passes. probably some stronger winds reaching the surface in the convection.. that's where i stand on that. i'm sketchy on calling it or assuming it is/was subtropical. purely tropical origin, just sheared. no frontal association, and it was convective yesterday. less so now, but i'd still hesitate to say it isn't a tropical system. it is moving into the subtropics now, though.. it's in a tropical airmass, but may take on non-tropical characteristics when/if it gets going.
plane arrives tomorrow, gives us a core profile.. if the convection remains removed doubt it will get further recognition. they'll probably cancel the recon if it looks like it does now when the sun comes up. i'd drop it to 40%.
the next shortwave won't go zipping by for another 36-48 hrs or so.. maybe it can improve its appearance in the lull.
HF 2252z25may
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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good point I guess it one of those wait and see things. the dicussion did say that there wasnt much convection near the center. i think thats what the is waiting for to clasify it.
shear did diminish so it may have a chance.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I just look at some model runs UKMET,AVN,CMC,and they all say fish spinner .There is a low up above the 50N mark acting like a black hole.When you look at the WV's you see the heavy convection going in that direction but the item of interest seems to keep moving E.It looks like it will follow the clockwise motion.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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some orginization is happening look at this
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i guess i'll use the scale that ive seen on here so many times
DEVELOPMENT CHANCE:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
[--*----------------]
i am having a hard time seeing where the shear has weakened any to make a difference. also, the center is becomming less organized, the tstorms rapidly racing away from the weak center, and the overall structure is that of a non tropical low.
this one can probably be written off.
i think the first storm of the year will be between jun 15 and july 10.
evidence of weakening, the center is now entirely exposed and beginning to elongate
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
i am also lowering my storm forecast to 12 since one of the storms was forecast in may
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The area I was looking at was about 25N and 65W even that area looks weaken quite a bit.The area of less shear was at the 60W mark.Don't think it will make a difference now.Calling it a day,look in tomorrow.
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