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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
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New Wave
      #14999 - Sun Jun 06 2004 11:35 AM

Anyone noticed the huge wave that is moving away from the African coast? Looks quite impressive, and it seems to be lasting a little longer over water than its predecessors did.

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javlin
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Re: Alot of Rain!!!
      #15000 - Sun Jun 06 2004 11:48 AM

Looks to be a void some 200-300 miles N of it in the Yuc gap lacking any shear.That's providing the shear does not move as the system moves.The system has one quality already Persistence.Have to watch see what happens in a couple of days.

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LI Phil
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Re: Alot of Rain!!!
      #15001 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:11 PM

Speaking of a lot of rain, the disturbance just off the coast of Hondouras/Nicaragua is dumping big time. However, it's not expected to develop into anything. Looks like any future development is still a full week away at the least. Will have to check the latest models, but at last look, a couple were putting something in the east gulf next monday, just off the west coast of FLA.

Looks like most of the USA east of the Mississippi is going to be HOT and wet this upcoming week. Oh well, par for late spring.

Peace & Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
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Re: Split troph
      #15002 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:14 PM

Steve didn't J.B. mention something about this between 10>15?

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LI Phil
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Trough split - for jav
      #15003 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:18 PM

Jav,

Here's what Joe has to say on this today:

"TROPICS: The gulf will have to be watched starting later this week and its unclear to me as to what can develop there. The point is the deep level convection is now showing itself in the southwest Caribbean and over northwest south America and its my theory the trof split will pull that toward the gulf in the next week to 10 days. The development of the new typhoon so far west in the Pacific would suggest that the areas to watch in the gulf are west, not east of 90, but eventually any enhanced gulf activity would come northeast next week."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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summercyclone2
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Re: Trough split - for jav
      #15004 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:32 PM

SW Carib looking more interesting, more of wnw or NW trajectory; also, low level swirl at the end of convection zone
just e of Fl--Joe's 'hybrid' beginning to crank???

sc2


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javlin
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Re: Trough split - for jav
      #15006 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:35 PM

Thanks Phil .I was going to reply that I don't always trust the NWS since Georges.They continued to say N.O. all the way till my lights went out.Most of us along the Coast knew better.In thier defense the predictions over the last couple of years and the NHC have been pretty good in the Atlantic and the GOM for the most part.It will be interesting to see how this comes about .The GOM seems to at times has her own rules for the game.

Edited by javlin (Sun Jun 06 2004 03:18 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Trough split - for jav [Re: javlin]
      #15007 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:49 PM

testing out the updated system. We're starting to update flhurricane, fyi. This is just the first step. I'm testing out a reply.

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Jamiewx
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Site looking better [Re: MikeC]
      #15009 - Sun Jun 06 2004 12:54 PM

Site is looking better already with just the few changes, keep up the good work guys. The purple makes it even easier to see where a new post begins.

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WxGal
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Speaking of Weather.... [Re: Jamiewx]
      #15011 - Sun Jun 06 2004 01:21 PM

Well it's 1:15pm and I'm starting to hear some thunder hear in Polk County. Looking at the radar, looks we're in for another round of strong storms. It's hotter than Hades here, too. I don't see the big blow-up of storms happening along the coastline that were able to cool down our air temps yesterday happening again today. Already the thunder here is very strong...it's making the house rumble.

Well, I guess this weather is keeping me busy. I'm glad others are here to keep an eye on the Tropics.

(From the Moderator: For those that haven't noticed yet, there is a brand new Forum called 'Other Weather Events'. It was generated because of your requests to find another 'home' for material not associated with tropical cyclones - check it out when you get a chance.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 06 2004 04:12 PM)


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Steve
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Re: Speaking of Weather.... [Re: WxGal]
      #15012 - Sun Jun 06 2004 02:41 PM

Update looks good Mike except when you come in from the main news page, the system gives the error message that it's unable to display the forum I was looking for. I got in from clicking on the news item and then "read other people's comments". Ordinarilly, I get in by clicking on the "#" behind the news item.

The rogue storm discussed last week cut up too far west and never got cranking as far as overwater feedback. But it did get cranking south of Cape Cod (see link below if its' still daytime)

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

As for the SW Caribbean stuff, I don't know where Joe gets week-10 days from. No way is it going to take that long to migrate up, but I suppose if the trof split drops far enough south (BOC?), it might curtail northward advancement of the wave and convection. Anyway, I like the teleconnection idea of a typhoon starting West of the Philipines and slowly migrating up then NE. Check out 07.NONAME on NRL's site. I don't like the JTWC's track with the system which is to slowly migrate it NNE over southern Taiwan and then hook it back NW between the Korean Peninsula and China. That's a weird Upper Texas or North Gulf teleconnection with a hook back west. No doubt the JTWC (in response to this post) will be changing their track. Peace. Happy Sunday.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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javlin
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Re: 79 and 11? [Re: Steve]
      #15013 - Sun Jun 06 2004 03:02 PM

The system seems to be expanding in size(2x).My imagination maybe almost looks like a curve on the E and N side.Movement seems to be either N or NNW. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Edited by javlin (Sun Jun 06 2004 03:16 PM)


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James88
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Re: 79 and 11? [Re: javlin]
      #15014 - Sun Jun 06 2004 04:21 PM

I think your right - there definately seems to be some sort of curvature there.

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Cycloneye
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Important for Floridians to read this [Re: MikeC]
      #15017 - Sun Jun 06 2004 07:22 PM

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

Ed I really didn't know in what forum I had to post this and be free to move it if you think it is needed to be moved from talkback forum but I thought that this was important to share this information to all who live in Florida and was posted at S2K.It is very interesting all of what it says there and it speaks of why Florida is poised for hurricane strikes in comming years.Many factors are combining to make the Florida Penninsula more threatened such as the PDO,Bermuda High strong and other factors that you can read in the link.Any comments are welcomed about this.And ED looking great the board now and I know that more changes are on the way .

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Sun Jun 06 2004 07:41 PM)


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Jamiewx
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Re: Important for Floridians to read this [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15018 - Sun Jun 06 2004 08:10 PM

Yes Cycloneye, I agree that everyone in Florida should read that infomation, and maybe residents along the East coast of the U.S. should take that information into account. Its actually kind of scary that this increased major hurricane landfall patten is coming around again.

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LI Phil
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Re: Important for Floridians to read this [Re: Jamiewx]
      #15019 - Sun Jun 06 2004 08:25 PM

C-eye. Interesting read there. I think Floridians are always aware of the threat, at least since Andrew, but a couple of near misses may have lulled them into a false sense of security. Hope that's not the case.

I know PR is always under the threat, so hopefully you guys will be all safe and sound this year. Certainly Hispaniola, particularly the Haitian part of it, don't need any more mischief this season.

Several posts back, I had written that I thought LI might be "out of the woods" this year, but it's become increasingly apparent that we are at least medium-risk this season. And it looks like NE could be at even higher risk. Joe B feels the northeast will take a hit this season.

Watching a really interesting Storm Story on TWC about weather and the D-Day invasion. It's amazing how the weather really does affect everything in one way or another...a bad forecast could have cost the Allies the war!

Cheers & Peace

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
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Re: Important for Floridians to read this [Re: LI Phil]
      #15020 - Sun Jun 06 2004 08:36 PM

Phil two things I am particulary worried about Florida=Complancency from many people and the continued grownth of the Floridas Population.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LoisCane
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Re: 79 and 11? [Re: javlin]
      #15021 - Sun Jun 06 2004 08:37 PM

Thanks for posting that link..loop. Funny how much closer it looks on that loop.

There is something going on tonight.What do they call that? Divergence? Difluent winds.. can't spell or think tonight. My mind is all over the place tonight. Really looks a lot better than I would have thought it would.. see how it looks at daylight again.

Glad I was able to get on though it still says "an error occurred while processing this directive"

Also.. like the divider lines somewhat ...is there any way to turn down the contrast a bit? Nice stormy purple, just dark.

Skies were dark here... weather everywhere in Miami except here... thunder all day.

Really looks good on the last few visible shots.

take care, bobbi
glad i was able to get in.. think its going to be a great season to track..oh and brian norcross did a great speial today about a lot of factors... and read the South Florida better watch out report.. well done I think but so true..so many factors far and near that make up where the storms go and who gets them.

Have to follow general trends..but then when they get close to home... other factors come into play


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LI Phil
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Tropical Update [Re: LoisCane]
      #15022 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:11 PM

This comes from the evening trop update from accuwx:

"A tropical disturbance just east of Nicaragua is showing signs of development as convection is blossoming around a broad circulation. This system is moving to the west-northwest at 5-10 mph and will bring flooding rains and gusty winds to Nicaragua and Honduras over the next 24 hours. Moisture from the system should reach southeast Texas Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of numerous showers and thunderstorms. A large tropical wave along 45 west and south of 20 north is tracking west at 15-20 knots and shows little sign of development. Another tropical wave is moving west off of the African coast."

Interesting about that Honduras/Nicaragua impulse. It's been flaring up since this am. If nothing else, it will keep Tejas wet this coming week. Probably bears watching though.

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Jamiewx
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Re: Tropical Update [Re: LI Phil]
      #15023 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:32 PM

Can't see the wave developing into anything at the moment, first off, NHC isn't suggesting development in any of its products, nor does NRL have an invest. Also shear in the area of the wave remains fairly strong and a shear tendency map shows the shear has been increasing and is forecast to increase further over the next 48hrs to the northwest of the system. Also latest TWO (10:30pm) says the system is moving west or northwest, this motion would bring it pretty close to land, another factor influencing development.

Edited by Jamiewx (Sun Jun 06 2004 10:32 PM)


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