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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14826 - Thu Jun 03 2004 12:09 PM

Frank P,

This is a surprising invest. South and just off the coast of Africa...in JUNE! Don't think they'll be sending in the recon anytime soon, but I suppose it bears watching. As far as "Alex", I'll put it about 15%.

Anyone else want to take a shot at developement?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14827 - Thu Jun 03 2004 12:25 PM

What do you think the chances are that it could make it across to the Caribbean and then develop?You said you put its chances of formation at 15%, but what if it reaches a more favourable environment? It may sound like a long shot but stranger things have happened.

Edited by James88 (Thu Jun 03 2004 12:26 PM)


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lois
Unregistered




Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14828 - Thu Jun 03 2004 12:44 PM

Think it can make it across... my problem would be then what.. conditions are pretty hostile still at the door way to the Caribbean.

Still the last one made it across.. didn't look this organized.

Would think either way we might see some early Cape Verdes...from what we've seen so far. Once the water temps elevate just a drop..watch out.

and btw... cyclone.. sorry if i said something when annoyed which could have been taken wrong.. know everyonel puts a lot of effort in their sites and respect that. I just liked it better when there was a bit more diversity in the sites and that's an offboard issue.

Also... as Steve so well put. We all like different things and feel more at home different places... boards, etc.

Also... would like to see some sites people enjoy who live in places like New Orleans, Houston (neil frank), the Cape Hatteras area.. would be nice to see what everyone here enjoys on a local level .. and which mets they enjoy locally. Maybe thats a topic for another board here vs news.

take care bobbi


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Tropics Guy
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14829 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:02 PM

I agree with Lois, think it'll make it across the Atl for awhile before it hits a more hosite environment. As far chances of development, maybe 20% at best. Anyway it's still interesting to see the East Atl being a lot more active this year than at this time last year because of all the dry air that was entrenched for so long.

AJ

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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MoparMitch
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14830 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:16 PM

I am also VERY impressed with this little system. What is just as impressive are the waves coming of the African coast, especially this early in the season.
I actually think this has about 35% chance of developing, if the environment maintains itself, which it should for about another day or so. Past that, it will be knocking on the Caribbean’s doorstep, where if anything does develop, will be torn to shreds. What would be REALLY interesting to see if this system takes a more northerly track, where the westerlies may not have such an influence on it, but then again the water temps may not support much at this time.

All in all, very interesting and a prelude for things to come.

mitch...


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James88
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14831 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:30 PM

Wasn't it about this time last year that the CV season got started with Tropical Depression 2? I'm not saying that this wil happen this year, but this little system certainly bears a look every now and then - perhaps it will get a brief mention in the 5:30pm weather outlook.

On another note, the system in the East Pacific has not made any progress, and the weather outlook says "THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW." Looks like it will be a little longer before Blas forms, and Joe B's earlier prediction may take a little longer to pan out.


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LONNY307
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14832 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:48 PM

Something is wrong with 92L. It's a pacific storm. The vis. sat shows it off mexico and the lat/long is also in the Pacific.

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Frank P
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14833 - Thu Jun 03 2004 02:10 PM

I disagree, this is in the far eastern Atlantic. You can also see the cloud formation of this system using the NASA Meteosat 7 view, link below. And it sure looks like the west coast of Africa as the nearest land mass.... there is a system in the EPAC off Central America, and its convection is much more impressive than this one 92L...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html


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James88
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14834 - Thu Jun 03 2004 02:10 PM

Well spotted! I feel stupid - how did I miss that?! Shouldn't it be 92E? At least there is an invest somewhere. Right?

Edited by James88 (Thu Jun 03 2004 02:12 PM)


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Cycloneye
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14835 - Thu Jun 03 2004 02:19 PM

92L is clearly in the eastern atlantic as the latitud 8.0 n-21.5w shows up where you put the mouse at the pic.Very interesting this invest and a surprise one as I was away from the internet this morning.Let's see if some models jump on it later on.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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James88
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Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
      #14836 - Thu Jun 03 2004 02:23 PM

I stand corrected. I didn't check the latitiude etc.. Thanks for clearing that one up.

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LI Phil
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92L is clearly off the African coast
      #14837 - Thu Jun 03 2004 02:45 PM

Here's a better sat/ir image of 92L It doesn't look all that impressive, but you can clearly see it is off the coast of Africa.

Compare this to the two WestPac systems. Might there be teleconnections? If so, if this does develop, will it simply spin the fishes? Don't think it's gonna make it across the pond to the Islands & Gulf. from the HurricaneAlley



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lois
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make it across the Atlantic?
      #14838 - Thu Jun 03 2004 03:08 PM

After watching it this afternoon I'm amazed they did an invest. Not a lot to write home about.. thought the one before it looked better and like that mess over Africa still.

Wonder what parameters NRL has before making an invest.

Does anyone know?


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James88
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Invest Criteria
      #14839 - Thu Jun 03 2004 03:31 PM

Information on this is quite difficult to find, but I did find something. A system with a statement of central pressure is often assigned an invest. I don't know how useful this is, or even if it is completely correct, but it seems to be one of the criteria needed. Note that the invest in the E. Pacific has a low of 1008mb associated with it. I'm sure there are other things needed to designate a system an invest, but this seems to be one of them.

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LI Phil
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Retired Names
      #14841 - Thu Jun 03 2004 04:28 PM

This subject came up a while back...retiring names of storms. In 2007 Allison, Iris and Michelle will be replaced by Andrea, Ingrid and Melissa. In 2008 Ike and Laura will replace Isidore and Lili. In 2009 Fred, Ida and Joaquin will replace Fabian, Isabel and Juan.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Retired Names
      #14842 - Thu Jun 03 2004 04:31 PM

Where did you get those names? I've checked the NHC website and they have left the names unchanged. Could you possibly provide a web link?

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LI Phil
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Re: Retired Names
      #14843 - Thu Jun 03 2004 04:37 PM

There are a bunch of places to get the info, but here's the first link I found:

http://www.weathermatrix.net/archive/tropical/summaries/0023.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Retired Names
      #14844 - Thu Jun 03 2004 04:45 PM

Thanks! I don't understand why the NHC doesn't have this on their website, but it makes sense that these names should have been retired. Since when did a hurricane that caused $3.37billion in damage (cashing in at the 4th most expensive hurricane in the US), the worst hurricane to hit Bermuda in over 70 years, and Halifax's worst storm in modern history not get their names retired?

Fred surprises me as a choice, because it is a very similar name to Frederic in '79. I thought they would choose something a little more different, but then I suppose that there are only so many names that begin with 'F'. Joaquin's a name I've never heard before. Still, I suppose we should focus on the coming year, some good names there.


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Jamiewx
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No mention of 92L in the TWO
      #14845 - Thu Jun 03 2004 05:29 PM

The NHC apparently does not consider 92L that important as there is no mention of it in the 5:30pm TWO. Maybe 10:30 update will give it a mention. I am also having trouble accessing NRL, anyone else having the same problem?

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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LI Phil
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NRL
      #14846 - Thu Jun 03 2004 05:36 PM

I haven't been able to get on NRL all day.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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