Anonymous
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On " Lou's Weather" he has just changed his color code to "purple" which means "Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely"
ShawnS
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Oh yeah, I drank some of it falling out the sky /ritual
Steve, LOL! Actually more like LMFAO. We weather fans are strange birds, no? Up north here, I always try to taste the season's first snowflake. And I'm glad you cracked open that tasty frosty beverage (mmmmm.it is early, but I could use a cold one 'bout now).
In all seriousness, I really do believe we will have Alex on our hands. And as long as it's just a big rainmaker and no one gets hurt, well then all the better. Wish I could be down there for the start of the season, but I'm vicariously enjoying it up here all the same (so, too, are Rich B. & James88 across the pond, I'd imagine).
What were the #s? 1.0/1.0? Can't get too excited YET. If they get to 2.0/2.5 anytime soon, well then I'm popping that frosty cold one!
Enjoying the show and the banter,
LI Phil 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Definately finding this very interesting across the pond - the way things are going, we may have a classified system on our hands very soon. I sometimes think that the anticipation of a system forming is better than when it actually occurs, but then each have their advantages. Still on the lookout for a STDS.
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Anonymous
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I just watched the so-called tropical update on and they said the plane is not investigating the swirl we have all been watching but the "mess" well to the east. Is this true?
ShawnS
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LI Phil
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Shawn,
The first flight is going to the western blob, the second flight is going to the eastern swirl. I saw the Trop UD too, and it was pretty lame. Seidel is great on location, but fairly lame in the studio. God I miss John Hope. Forbes isn't much better. At least Jon Nese is decent during the weekdays.
Haven't heard if is sending anyone down south to report. Guess we'll find out tonight if JC isn't doing studio shots.
Man, it must be the "season" but this little event is really firing me up. 
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
(From the Moderator: Not everyone that watches understands the weather like we do. Stay focused.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 13 2004 08:16 PM)
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Anonymous
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Is it normally bad news when the plane has been out there for a couple of hours and hasn't sent back any info? Does that mean they are having a really tough time trying to find what they are looking for?
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Loc: Pensacola
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If you ask me, it looks like the dry air is getting the best of the main swirl everyone is talking about in the western gulf. Look at the lastest visible sat. loop and it looks like the area of convection is dying on the west side like it hit a brick wall. Anybody see this? I could also be wrong but look at the movement of the main swirl, which way is it starting to move? It isnt moving NW anymore. Also Dr. Lyons is focusing on the area in the Central Gulf...Could these 2 areas merge? or am I just totally out of it today LOL Well, these are my observation, just wondering if any of ya'll see it.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If they're having difficulty finding what they are looking for, it doen't mean it isn't t there. Remember, with Claudette last year the Hurricane Hunters spent a long time tryng to find the circulation, and then they found one on the way out!
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LI Phil
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>>> From the Moderator: Not everyone that watches understands the weather like we do. Stay focused
I had a feeling you were going to edit that out. My bad.
must....stay....focused....
As you are wont to say, "the topic is tropic". BTW, any idea when we'll get some relevant data from recon?
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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You are correct. Dry air intrusion is eroding the western side of the system. At 20Z I had the weak center at 24.0N 92.4W - movement to the northeast.
Regarding RECON, here is the latest:
URNT11 KNHC 132003
97779 20034 11240 93300 02500 99005 24//8 /0010 49905
RMK AF963 01AAA INVEST OB 15
West of the center - light and variable winds.
Now this one is interesting:
URNT11 KNHC 132015
97779 20154 11240 92600 03500 24012 24//8 /0010 41720
RMK AF963 01AAA INVEST OB 16
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
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Ed,
If I'm reading the RECCO correctly, the winds are only at 5 kts? Is that correct?
Here's a link for anyone trying to understand the RECCO data:
RECCO data
Thanks,
LI Phil
(From the Moderator: That's correct. On the second report the wind was reported out of the southwest at 12 knots.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 13 2004 08:48 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Here's one that is less than a half-hour old and is very close to the circulation center - probably just southeast of it, with winds out of the south southwest at 17 knots.
URNT11 KNHC 132028
97779 20284 11240 91900 03500 21017 24//8 /0011 41420
RMK AF963 01AAA INVEST OB 17
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
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In your opinion,looking at the info that has been coming in, do you think they will call it a depression?
ShawnS
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LI Phil
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000
URNT10 KNHC 130028
97779 00284 10297 88100 56300 99005 56721 /4589
RMK AF963 WXWXA TRAIN OB 05
LAST REPORT
Winds up to 21 knots in this report.
(don't get too excited about this one - its from a training flight yesterday evening - with 5 knot winds. ED)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 13 2004 09:04 PM)
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teal61
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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99005 is the wind field and that means light and variable.
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LI Phil
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"TRAIN OB 05"
Man, I gotta read these things thru. However, I did get that info from . Do you have a link to the most updated Recon info?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sun Jun 13 2004 09:39 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Maybe you meant to post this one:
URNT11 KNHC 132040
97779 20404 11244 91500 03700 19019 23//8 /0011 41825
RMK AF963 01AAA INVEST OB 18
And here is the latest:
URNT11 KNHC 132048
97779 20484 11248 91500 02200 18018 23//9 /0010 41920
RMK AF963 01AAA INVEST OB 19
ED
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Anonymous
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Looks like this one was a "dud". Good practice,though.
ShawnS
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Loc: Pensacola
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I have a question, Is the reason the area of convection near the LLC is so elongated from S to N beacuse of shear? Im just wondering, Im also trying to learn. Thanks
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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latest says that surface winds are less than 25mph and the system is too disorganized to be upgraded to a tropical depression at this time. But still suggesting the potential for development over the next 24 hours, and another plane will be out there tomorrow if needed.
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