James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If the system to the north continues to develop, we could have Alex or at least a tropical depression fairly soon. Also, note the wave to the east of the Windward Islands. The latest says:-
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME.
Looks like they are not writing that one off. If they were they would probably say that development would be slow to occur or tropical cyclone formation is not likely. Looks like 2 areas to watch.
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
The spinning water vapor leaving Texas entering the Gulf, is that a LLC?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Can anyone answer why they are sending a plane out to the gulf this afternoon? If they didn't find anything yesterday they sure as heck won't find anything today. It's a waste of time. The upper low sitting right around us here in Texas would kill anything trying to develop anyway.
ShawnS
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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no, unfortunately. it is all in the upper levels. you will likely not ever (to the best of my knowledge) be able to see the LLC on water vapor, which just shows the upper level moisture. there is a low there, and it is producing tremendous shear over the disturbance
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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See above wv link. What happens if it exits the coast and emerges into the GOM? Could any development occur or is this thing simply a rainmaker for now?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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its pretty strong, so it could either kill development, or seeing the intensity, spin up another surface low
i would have to go with the first one
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The low is still firing up down in the Gulf, but it's chumpy. It appears the worst of the weather will be over lower Jefferson, Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes in LA and perhaps Hancock & Harrison Counties in Missisippi. Several areas around the metro (mostly just NE and WNW) have gotten upwards of 5-8" since they reset the storm total Sunday morning. While we all know Doppler Radar can overdo rainfall estimates, it is also known to underestimate rainfall estimates sometimes as well. I think a general 3-6" will be legit when all is said and done. There's a nice training band that appears to be moving due north and lining up due south of New Orleans. If that sucker held together, it would be a 4" boost EASILY. But tropical rains usually peter out once they get inland and away from the center of circulation as new showers/bands form over water. We'll see if that pans out, because that's all my last 4 Abitas have riding on for tonight.
Otherwise, skies are grey and it's a little breezy out. It's certainly comfortable here for a June day. I was hoping we'd get some flooding rains so I could upload a picture, but it didn't happen.
Of further note, Joe B did mention that there's a shot that the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles could become a gulf concern in 7-10 days. He said it probably won't develop in the next few days though. He's got his hurricane forecast ready and delivered it today to the natural gas symposium he's speaking at down here. The only hints he gave were that it will be a "very active landfalling year." He'll have the details on-line when he gets back to PA in a week or so, so if you're interested in their 30 day free trial, check it out. He did note that he needed "Rock You Like a Hurricane" for the delivery of his forecast.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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New Invest for the disturbance approaching the islands, 94L
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
TG
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Lou's Weather Page
This is the newest one of these to come out. Can someone explain why it says that there is a possibility of something forming right on my back door if the plane is going to somewhere around 90 degrees west? I'm totally confused!!
ShawnS
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/04061419
Here are the first model plots for this invest that has to survive the shear ahead.If it survives that area then it might have a chance later in the western caribbean.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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replacement finally decided on for lili in 2002--laura
2003
fabian replaced with fred
isabel replaced with ida
juan replaced with joaquin
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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C-eye (or Rabbit or anyone)...
The shear zone seems to be strengthening. By the time this wave reaches the antillies, does anyone know if the shear is forecasted to be lessening at that time? As it looks now, I don't think it could survive...guess we'll know more in 48 hours or so.
Thanks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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I believe with the ridge building west, it will provide a decent environment for this to develop. Looking pretty good on the waning visible loops of today....a definite turning, didn't know they put up an invest. Think this has a shot at Alex. Cheers!!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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if it doesnt dissipate in the next 24 hours, it may make it to at most a depression, as the last two have
i doubt it will ever reach storm intensity
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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It's very early in the season, and if you add the wind shear, Looks at thebestt to be just a rain maker or be pulled up the mid Altantic .
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
TOMORROW MORNING...IF REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN
AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
Looks like we won't be seeing Alex anytime soon...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i have found a total of 8 unclassified tropical or subtropical storms since 2000, when the hurricane center apparantly got lazy not only with their forecasts, but with classifications.
had they been doing their jobs, we'd likely be on bonnie now
(first in may, second current in ne atlantic)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Sometimes you win other times you lose, I sail in the Far East for 10 years, their a place you don't want to be in season.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i am very puzzled as to why either is still on the site. the says the atlantic system is not developing, and the gulf system has apparantly dissipated completely
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Well, the area east of the Lesser Antilles looks more organized now than this morning. The difference is you had Stewart doing the 11am . He looks ahead at potential. The environment is improving as high pressure builds west. Anyhow, its something to watch. We have all summer to get upset with the ! Cheers.
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