DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Loc: Pensacola
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It was me who expireneced the tropical storm force winds last night, but as you probably know it was within an intense squall line, so it doesnt really count because there wasnt any area around the gulf coast reporting sustained winds outside of any of the storms up to TS force. So the sustained winds I recieved was probably very isolated, Winds at the most yesterday were sustained at about 20 or so with higher gust. So maybe a TD but most likely not.....Hope this made sense Phil as you probably already knew most of this. Good Day
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Actually, thanks for qualifying it. I was trying to do it from memory from having read your post at 10:00 this morning and basically forgot what you said other that the wind strength. Yes, winds in a squall line can reach tremendous speeds. I see what you are saying about winds from the LLC.
My point wasn't actually argue whether it was a TD or not, but rather to ask if (or some other agency) ever go back in time to reclassify systems, or is it just for the big ones that they do that for.
Thanks for answering though,
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it's a different basin and all, but check out typhoon dianthu. the official guidance has it at 165kt tomorrow. i don't think i've ever seen that on a system that wasn't already at cat 5. bad news is that down the road, it has a chance at japan.
on our side 94L looks a good bit better than i'd expected. must mean it's demise under heavy shear is REAL close.
HF 2155z15june
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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HF,
check the other basins forum. Rob & James have been all over it.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I suppose they could reclassify systems posthumously. They don't only do that for the big ones - Andrew being upgraded to CAT 5 after 10 years is probably the most famous. Remember, last year, Erika was upgraded to a hurricane several months afterwards, and Claudette was admitted to have attained hurricane status in the Caribbean. I would think that reclassification would account for systems of tropical storm strength that did not get named in recent years, for example Tropical Storm #6 in 1988. Well, that's my opinion, anyway.
As you said, wind gusts in squalls can reach tremendous gusts - sometime in the last 24 hours, somewhere on the Great Plains (I forget where) recorded a gust of 113mph in a squall. I found that on Accuweather, so if anyone wants to try and find it that's where it is.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Phil, your beating a dead horse, we have thunderstorms in Florida that have caused lot more trouble, As for 94L if it does anything be a TD and run up east coast area.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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94L being blown apart by shear, looks like we won't see alex anytime soon there or elsewhere.
TG
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The says that conditions are ''EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.''
Does this mean that it could perhaps develop into a tropical depression sometime down the road? A tropical depression doesn't really seem like significant development.
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Well if you look at the visible pic, there is a surface circulation at 16N/59W, albeit weak, but persistent. Check out the loop. There is some convection popping around the weak circulation. Check the floater vis.
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Well, the shear has gotten the best of that wave! Maybe a chance to refire later. Now there is a wave amplifying under the ridge in the central atlantic. We'll see. Any Joe B. paraphrasing this morning? Cheers!!
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As I think most of you know, JBs been on the road, so his missives are fairly short, when he does get to post. Basically he mentions there is a strongly negative (which is responsible for the supertyphoon). There will be a trof split next week, and he feels the tropics will need to be watched (when DOESN'T he say that), even with the negative . "The gulf is open for business" so any of those waves getting sheared still have to be monitored as they enter the west carib/GOM.
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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thanks!
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I suppose that these waves really do need to be watched. They can develop fairly quickly when they reach a favourable environment. Speaking of favourable conditions, it seems that SSTs in the East Atlantic are beginning to warm. This means it will probably be only about 4 or 5 weeks before a storm will be able to form further east than the Gulf and the W. Caribbean.
Real Time POES Imagery - Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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It will be a matter of time when we will see the first tropical depression and storm but anyway june and july are normally slow months.In many past seasons the first storm has formed in early to mid august and those seasons haved turned out to be active ones.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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This definately seems like one of those years when we have nothing in June - although there is plenty of time to be proved wrong. It really was very unusual for us to have had 7 systems before the end of July last year.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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we have had active seasons with slow starts recently:
1998--we didnt have our first storm until July 28 and had a total of 14 storms
1999--we didnt have our second storm on August 19 and there were 12 that year
2000--the first storm was on August 4 and there were 14 storms
2001-there were two storms before mid-August and there were 15 storms, oddly enough 7 formed after September
2002-first storm July 15 and 12 that year
a slow start is somewhat boring, but is by no means a precursor of a quiet season
that said, and the fact that the Eastern Pacific has had no storms yet this month (quiet pacific normally=active atlantic), i am re-upping my forecast to 12/7/3
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Perhaps this will be one of those years where we have very little happen for a long time, and then all of a sudden the tropics will explode into life. For example, in 1998 there was little until Alex formed in late July, and then once Bonnie formed on Aug. 19, 10 systems formed within 35 days.
Similiarly, in 1999 there was very little since formed in June, but then from the 18th of August 2 major hurricanes, one CAT 2 and a tropical storm formed within 6 days.
I know that we have yet to see a named storm this year, but perhaps this could be a scenario for later in the season.
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Hurricane
Registered User
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Hi
Where can I find archived maps from the atlantic basin (for example from last year) to learn about the steering mechanisms of past storms? Are there any websites which are good for learning how to read surface and upper level maps and their influence to tropical storm tracks?
cu...
Hurricane
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If you are looking for archived storm tracks, Unisys is quite good, as it has data going back until 1851 for the Atlantic basin. However, as Phil warned me, it can sometimes be a little inaccurate, but it is mainly OK. Wunderground is quite good, and the have yearly storm tracks going back a few years. If you wanted to know about some of the mechanisms that directed these storms, the has a detailed analysis of each storm going back a couple of decades at least. They also have archived advisories for the Atlantic and E. Pacific basin going back to 1998, and these would have forecast positions and the conditions these storms were facing. Hope this helps!
Edited by James88 (Thu Jun 17 2004 08:28 PM)
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Late start in the season could mean a late finish. Wasn't it Dec. last year when there was the tropical storm that hit S. America?
As we have all noticed, there seems to be subtle changes in weather paterns happening as we speak. 
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