Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_40/anis.html
Looks huge there but as we know the sal is awaiting it however as the days go by the time for the CV season to show it's teeth is comming soon so let's see what happens with this new one.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Hey Phil...
Right now the or other global models don't show anything that raises an eyebrow with the later-to-be TW over continental Africa. Can't go completely by what the models show when we're dealing with something 5+ days out...but I assume they're picking up on a continued dry environment due to SAL and ridge-forcing subsidence. In that case, it'd be basically just as hard for this upcoming wave as the one in progress. Since it's still a ways out I'm not going to say yes or no as to whether it'll become something...but as it stands now, don't hold your breath.
Another thing I want to add...the negative pulse currently over the ATL should be moving out in a week or so, making way for the positive . When a positive is over the region, conditions tend to be less conducive for TC development...as you probably already know. However, it does NOT completely prevent TC development. Even if a positive is over the region, it doesn't mean there's no chance of Alex until the next negative ...just makes it a bit harder more or less depending on the other environmental factors. It certainly prevents multiple storm outbreaks, but we can see a lonely TC when the isn't enough to stop favorable conditions in a certain area. So I wouldn't look at it as "no Alex now, no Alex until mid August when the next favorable comes." Indeed if we don't see Alex within a week or so that may very well be the case...but if the dry air and SAL subside enough and couple with the already-favorable factors (W QBO, warm ATC, no El Nino, lower than normal shear, lower than normal SLPAs, slightly warmer than normal SSTAs)...then with the right TW that exits Africa, we could still get a TS, regardless of .
In any case, what is likely is that when that negative DOES enter the basin...all will break loose. Timing still suggests it'll reach the ATL in mid Aug...perfect time to coincide a big bang (if you will) in TC activity. Going to be interesting to see what happens.
As for the system in late May over the DR...I wasn't paying much attention to it at the time, as it happened when Jason and I were busy polishing our 2004 forecast. However, from the satellite images I did see, and ones I found archived...there definately was a low pressure (no doubt), but I don't think it was strong enough to be classified as a TD/TS. Yes, there could have been observations of TD/TS force winds in some locations...but 1)that's to be expected in squalls associated with any strong low, and 2)as I recall they were well away from the center. Plus, convection was being enhanced in part by upper level divergence/shear...so it wasn't a very barotropic system. This would explain my second point about the winds recorded. A very deadly, heavy rainmaker it was, but TC it was not...IMO.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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It seemed much the same way last year in the E.ATL. with the SAL.Nothing would develop till it hit pass about the 70W mark.Even this this year seems impossible for the time being.I would not get ot strung out though.I do believe that this season will take off soon enough.The heat and humidity here along the GC has been tough this year.Interesting thoughts springing up though in the forum.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Luis, Jav & (especially) Rob,
Thanks for the insights. Not trolling on-line at the moment so not looking at sat pix or commentary.
Yea, Rob, I know that it's not inconceivable that something could fire up during our expected reversal, just not expecting it, 'das all [tm HF].
I guess I should be happy if I get JBs rogue storm this weekend...since there's not really anything else out there. And yes, James88, in another forum, I'll give you a report, IF there's anything to report.
Rob, as far as your pointing out (in the storms' forum) the correlation (or lack thereof) between named storms and season totals, I'm also aware, and not at all concerned (still sticking with 14/8/3). Just wish there was SOMETHING, ANYTHING, to give us a tease.
All us weather nuts have been following the tropix since mid-May only to be diasppointed.
Of course, that will make the August fruit that much sweeter.
N-E-who. G'nite all. Still clinging to that vague, slim chance for july action.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cary, NC
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Yeah Phil, I know exactly what you mean...this wait really IS getting boring. Longest period during the season with no systems of at least TD strength since from Jun 1 to Jul 27 in 1998 (when TD1 finally formed and became Alex...ironic eh?). But I'm pretty confident that we'll be bogged to overload mode come the peak of the season.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nothing new going on. JB still keen on the rogue storm and says the southwest Atlantic, Eastern GOM and western carib will be ripe for development mid to late next week (though he was short on specifics -- only calling it his "idea" and that some of the models are starting to "sniff this out.")
Looks like the last african wave is getting ready to exit the coast tomorrow...probably meet the same fate as all its predecessors. 
That's all folks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Also note there is a LLC with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles. SOme shear from the south is occuring, keeping development at bay. Maybe this is the feature that comes into play. Either that or development of some of the spillage from the SE trough 
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Rain from it when it gets here by monday is the only effect from it but I am watching it as it is at very warm waters west of 50w however upper shear is fairly strong in the eastern caribbean sea so let's see what happens as it gets closer to the islands.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sat Jul 17 2004 12:28 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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My "little engine that could" wave is now located around 38W and 15N, is getting better organized and is showing some signs of convection. It's certainly not going to develop where it is, but will be moving to a more favorable region as it chugs westward. Not saying it will develop, but not ready to write it off either.
Lots of indoor chores for me tomorrow, as the low moves off the NC coast and tracks up the northeast coast, dumping anywhere from 1-3". Now, if Bastardi's rogue storm forms, with 40+MPH gales, then I may have to head to the shore and watch the show. Already issuing Special Weather Statements up here...
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Your wave still has a heartbeat Phil. The TWD says "THE WAVE HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER DEVELOPED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM MET-8
INDICATES THE WAVE IS FARTHER W THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THERE ARE
ACTUALLY DISTINCT SWIRLS NEAR THE ...BUT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
CIRCULATION AND TSTM COVERAGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN SWIRL."
It seems that the Atlantic may not want to go quiet just yet.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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wave around 40W does appear to be getting better organized, now a definate turn with it, but appears to be just a tad elongated SW to NE, and looks like the actual low center is a bit far to the south, at around 8N or 9N. wave to the west also appears now to have an LLC, but is being sheared; I think the eastern one has the best chance at development
bw, is anyone else besides me debating on weather or not to lower the predictions?
also, some kind of low with an upper high appears to be entering the gulf from Mississippi
doesnt show up well on radar, but mid-level circulation is better for development than none
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
alos, how do you all hyperlink the words so I don't have to put these site addresses up??
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Bugs,
When you "copy" a web site address (URL), simply left click on the "URL" choice below your post under "Instant UBB Code". When the window pops up, you'll see "http://" in highlight. Right click in the box, then "paste" your copied link. Click OK. Then simply type whatever you want to "nickname" the link.
Das all dere is!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
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Quote:
bw, is anyone else besides me debating on weather or not to lower the predictions?
If you're talking about season predictions, lowering your numbers would in all likelyhood be a major mistake. I was having a debate with another poster on a different forum in 2000. We were having a big argument about lowering predictions right before all hell broke loose. The person I was talking to lowered his numbers and he busted terribly. June and July do NOT reflect what the peak will be like, and all of the parameters ARE in place...it's just a matter of time my friend. 
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Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Rabbit and Jason read an articule that I posted at storm forum about this.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sat Jul 17 2004 08:31 PM)
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Long shot, but interesting....from Miami NWS afternoon discussion...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE A PROBLEM FORECAST IF THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION GET LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH AND SIT OVER VERY WARM GULF WATER FOR DAYS. SOMETIMES SUCH SCENARIOS CAN LEAD TO UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Any Trough sitting in the GOM for an extended period of time, with water temp between 84 and 88 could be a problem but looks like most of the heavy thunder storms are moving into Florida, and forecast to have 15 to 25 Mph sw to w winds next 2 days.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Wouldn't lower any predictions until after about Aug. 11th or so.
Many very active seasons have nothing early on and many slow ones are busy in may and june.
Til then.. hang in there and wait it out ..
sweat it out?
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I agree LoisCane... don't lower yet and I would say don't until the end of August..... a lot can be packed in a few months! BTW did anyone catch Dr. Lyons (TWC) this am on his idea for a slim chance of formation in the GOM shortly?
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jul 17 2004 10:52 PM)
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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We have been watching the rotation of water vapor for days now. 30N/55W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
You can now see "popcorn" type clouds appearing in the center. Does this depict a ULL making it's way down to the center or surface?
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GR FLA
Unregistered
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I think development will happen within the next 10 days or so...
Possible areas 1. the Gulf, if the low pressure goes down and sits there, as expected and the wave approaching the northern windward islands seems to have a nice rotation, although is very small.
any comments???
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