Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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More convection firing over water with the disturbance south of the CV......we shall see 
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Cocoa Beach
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Thanks, it was a interesting read.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Maybe the system will be mentioned in the next - if it survives. Perhaps it will even be assigned an invest if it maintains itself.
Starting to get the feeling that any potential system that appears will be doomed to dissipate soon after. Of course, the time will come when one of these disturbances makes it to named status. The anticipation will make it better when it finally happens.
P.S. Thanks for the link Phil. An interesting article.
Edited by James88 (Thu Jul 15 2004 07:20 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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my thoughts on these
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0405/23/04052320_gevis.gif the system in may looked alot like the unnamed 2000 subtropical storm while in the Caribbean, and winds were sustained according to buoys at 40mph, so it was very likely a subtropical storm
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0405/25/04052520_gevis.gif
when it got into the atlantic looked like a depression
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0406/13/04061320_gevis.gif
gulf system may have been a depression; i have my doubts because the surface center on loops appeared to be west of the main convection
the Atlantic system was probably a subtropical storm either here
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0406/14/04061420_gevis.gif
or here
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0406/17/04061720_gevis.gif (look closely at tropical appearance in center)
the Bermuda system may have been, but again, i have doubts, because the center was not all that organized
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
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The 'read latest comments' is not working, only goes to 2nd page.
Heads up on the  system in the islands, it has potential in W Carib.
sc
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Old Sailor
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The wind shear is still strong in the carri, this system just looks like a rain maker as the wave heads west.
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JasonM603
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Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 15 July 2004 - 8:05 PM EDT
The only area worth noting this evening, is a tropical wave that pushed west into the eastern Atlantic earlier today. Upper level winds are favorable for development. However, a lot of dry air is still in place. The main parameter that is still inhibiting development is the Saharan Air Layer. None of the global models show any indication of future tropical development. But the does clearly show the wave and associated surface low pressure moving westward toward the Lesser Antilles over the next six days. If the wave still appears to be fairly well-organized by 30-35W, then things may begin to get interesting.
Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.
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Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
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LI Phil
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Looks like the wave that entrained itself off of Africa is really holding itself together well. I think if it can keep itself together towards 30-35W, we may have a legit shot at our first TD!
It's really impressing me to this point (and others..Steve H). For those of us Jonesing for our first storm, this may be our last best chance till Mid-August....so...let's follow this one.
I won't go ga-ga for another day or so...but...this could be "THE ONE"
Peace y'all,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Hey Jason,
Didn't even realize you posted moments before me. Interesting we're mentioning the same things about this wave. Yeah, let's give it some time, but it has certainly surprised to this point. This am, it was "just another wave" but this evening it's something to watch, and maybe even get excited about (relatively speaking). I mean it's not going to become Isabel or anything, far from it, but it could be Alex...woo hoo.
Talk to me 24 hours from now...
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
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http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/tropics.html
Very interesting comments from the squadron about the wave at east atlantic that at least tonight it is holding some convection.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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Luis,
Probably as much from boredom as from any true meterology, but....this has ALEX written all over it. Just imagine if this were late August early September. We'd be calling for the second coming of ...well... any number of CV storms.
I could be wrong (lord knows that wouldn't be the first time) but I think this one may finally have the stones to crack the SAL. I mean, think about, except for that, we've got lower pressures, lesser shear, everything that portends development except time of year.
Since climo IS (yes Bobbi) dictating SOMETHING either in the basin or in the MDR, why not this one.
Hey, my 6/14 "guess" was just that, but I'm gonna climb aboard this bad boy and either ride it into the sunset (or, ala "How I learned to love the bomb and....") or ... well, wait for the next impulse on August 8th.
A'ight [tm HF] that's it for now. Maybe, just maybe, this is NEO=the one.
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
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A lot of stuff rolling tonight. Hong Kong is getting hit by a 40k Tropical Storm (far west track, north of Taiwan). Watching the WPAC can occasionally yield clues about future events in the Atlantic. 99W is also up, and correspondingly, the Southern Oscillation Index has been slightly negative. That portends nothing extreme for the WPAC, but shows the energy in the area. In the EPAC, Blas is history and 91E is making up its mind. I don't see much out of it.
On our side, the Gulf continues to boil. If you go to the OTIS Model Actual SST's , you will see that the Gulf of Mexico has the hottest water temperatures of the basin. A closer look at the High-res SST's reveals that there is plenty of Upper 80 degree water off the LA, MS, AL, FL, West Cuban and Bahamian Coasts. It's interesting how close the hottest water is to land. If there happened to be anything threatening, there would have been some juice available near some of the potential landfall areas.
I'm liking the overall look of the GOES-12 IR tonight. There's a lot of color /Bobbi out there. The trof movnig into the SE, the interaction of the wave-entangled ULL with the leading edges of the trof, the wave moving by Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (saw a report by Cycloneye where he got some showers but the pressures stayed around 29.97-30.00 with the passage of the ECAR wave), and the new wave with the low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic. There's a lot of heat buildup and energy heading toward the SE Coast. A potential rogue storm blowing up off the Carolinas or VA coastal waters would have some energy to work with.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
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Okay...first off.
Thank you Cyclone in PR for that incredible site..sent it to my brother in Greece..he'll love it. Funny how we can pass sites around the world like some relay race wand. There he is in Thessaloniki sitting in his dolphin tee shirt watching the tropics.
You can take the boy out of Florida but you can't take the Florida out of the boy.
Thank u.. love that wide angle.
Secondly.. love that wave.. not going to lose my heart to the wave ..not yet but.. hard not to smile and get a cheap thrill
Third.. What happens (HF?) when the wave gets a bit further west under that ridge.. there is a ridge building out there.. trying to build bit by bit..it hasn't reached it yet.
Think we need to look at SAL sites more than water temps now.. but.. well..
Has my heart beating a little faster and yeah..
Second Coming is a good thought, Third or Fourth even better.
Nice site.. nice wave.. too soon to tell but a pretty visual for all you who need visuals.
Bobbi
oh and steve.. been watching subtle changes in tropical atlantic more than overall but have seen some changes too
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Steve hirsch.
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Bobbie, keep an eye on the wave approaching 50W.....loks to have some potential. Eastern wve convection is being pushed out ahead of the wave axis, but still looks fairly impressive. More waiting 
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James88
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The convection is still being pushed ahead of the wave axis but it is holding together - for now. Does Joe B. have anything to say about it?
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LI Phil
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Oh yeah...things are definitely afoot. As Steve H. pointed out, the wave at about 50W may need to be watched, but what I'm pumped for is the BIG wave crossing 30W. Looks even better than it did last night. And with the ridge building across the western atlantic...well...things could get mighty interesting. is back negative again and the African wave train has probably only got one more pulse left (last one is over central africa now). So, while things may heat up in the short term, these few waves look to be our last hope for probably 3-4 weeks.
As Steve (the OTHER Steve) pointed out last night, the WestPAC typhoon is dumping tropical juice on Hong Kong...maybe teleconnecting, but probably not.
And JB's still keen on the rogue storm forming late Sunday night and bring tropic-like conditions (but the storm will NOT be of tropical origin) up my way Monday: "The call is to jump the center to just east of Norfolk Sunday at midnight, then take it up through Long Island. This raises the spectre of gales for a few hours on beaches from the Delmarva to New England as the storm comes northward, the chance that we will really see a show with the radar pics, and what people would have mistaken for a tropical storm 100 years ago. While this is not a lock, it is my current thinking."
So I may be in for a bit of mischief as I grudgingly return to the office Monday am.
We could be in for some action (I sure HOPE so...so quiet), 'cause it sure looks like the tropics will be shutting down for a while in a week or so.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
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Ongoing discussion of it slowing down (didn't know it could slow down from a crawl.. stop?) and instead if it heated up. Somehow would be just about perfect the way this summer is going.
Last week in July think something will develop.
As for the wave.. watching.
No E after the Bobbi Steve, E-less okay ?? 
and.. like that wave closer in.. but will take a bit for me to really believe ..
watching tho
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Colleen A.
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Just posting this to get some feedback: right below Cuba, there's a complex of t-storms firing up. Looking at it a few times, there seems to be a little spin to it, but I'm not sure.
Anyone have any thoughts on whether what I'm seeing is there and if it is, what is the environment around it? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That wave does look a little better than yesterday. It's hanging on to its convection more stubbornly than 95L did a short while back. Also, still develops a closed low heading towards the Caribbean by next Thursday. Time will tell with this one - persistence is definately the key. I wouldn't be that surprised to see an invest sometime in the next couple of days. Fingers crossed with this wave.
It's currently encountering some slightly drier air and dust, but as others have said, there is more moist air out there now than there has been of late, so the system may have more of a chance than others recently. If this wave does develop, it seems that Alex will be doing just what he did 6 years ago.
Colleen, there does look to be a slight spin south of Cuba. There is plenty of moist air in the vicinity with warm SSTs.
Oh and Phil, if it happens, enjoy the action in LI this weekend/Monday!
Edited by James88 (Fri Jul 16 2004 03:13 PM)
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Anonymous
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ULL.
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