James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The tropical disturbance in the E. Pacific has become better organised over night, and the latest states that a tropical depression may form over the next day or so. The TWD says that deep convection is beginning to work its way to the centre of the system and that some banding has begun over the past few hours. It also says that anticyclonic outflow is taking place over the system.
It doesn't look too bad on satellite imagery -
90E.INVEST
Perhaps we'll have something to track fairly soon.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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NRL now list the system as '03E.NONAME'. Sounds like advisories will be initiated later today since we have a tropical depression out there now.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Finally. Looks like Blas will form in the next 12 hours or so. Forecasted to reach 50 kts. before cool SSTs begin to kill him off. No threat to land and not really much to track, but at least it's SOMETHING.
hurricane alley tracking
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Tropical Depression 3E is looking quite impressive at the moment. It will probably be upgraded to Blas in the next advisory.
Blas?
BTW, Phil - do you think this system has the potential to become stronger than currently forecast? Some people on the web are predicting it will make hurricane status.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I don't think it has enough time to strengthen to Hurricane status. Unless it undergoes a rapid intensification (and I don't see any reason for that) or changes course to hug the coast (don't see that happening either), it will hit cooler waters before it can attain hurricane strength winds.
I suppose nothing is ever out of the question, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Of course, I'm not a met, so I'm not really qualified to give you anything more than my (un)educated opinion.
Perhaps one of the mets or HF/Steve/Rob Mann could offer a true meterology-based explanation.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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James88,
I made the above post before this discussion came out. I think it summarizes what's about to happen about as well as I could.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Yeah...can't really add much to what the has already said on this one. Slowly becoming better organized tonight with a more symmetrical structure and deeper convection near the center. I imagine Blas is just 6-12HR away provided the trend continues. Shear is almost non-existent in the area, but subsidence lies immediately in the direction the storm is moving. This will keep it from intensifying TOO quickly...right now a moderate TS seems like a good bet before it approaches cooler waters.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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