LI Phil
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Bobbi: It's probably Hillary Andrews, she & Bob Stokes usually occupy the 10-12 time slot, although Jon Nese usually handles the trop. updates in the morning. Also, regarding sheer, I never said it wasn't encountering some shear, only that it's moving towards an area where shear is low...
So they're sending in two planes tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what they find. Wondering if the T numbers will be bumped up at the next update.
There are now four sets of models posted on Hurricane Alley. What a spread. Some take 97L into Central America, while others take it across Hispaniola to the Bahamas.
Models 1
Models 2
Models 3
Models 4
Also, if you look at this track of the storm so far, you can see the west-north-west track it's "taking".
97L Track
I realize some of these models are old, so it will be interesting to see what the updates bring.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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andy1tom
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Tallahassee Office Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement (Radar: [ Long Range ] )
this link is up on the important weather statements. a bunch of garble is all it is. is someone thinking something that they are not saying yet??
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Steve
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Joe B is weighing in on a southerly track into the Gulf. He's on vacation today but dropped in a post. He said that any weather off the east coast (NC to Coastal New England) could be ugly, but the sources of that weather would be the big high to the north, trofy weather currently off the South Atlantic Coast, and at most a bit of the energy from 97L. So he's moving his area of concern back to the Gulf and NW Caribbean. The way he put it, is that the high (behind the coming cold front I'm assuming) will turn the winds west of New Orleans to Northeast, while they will stay Southeast further east, leaving a natural alleyway over the central gulf for something to track into. This is mostly derived from the pattern itself, so we'll have to see what comes up. With a big cold high (cold for July anyway) in place, you always need to look south of that for potential development.
He's looking at this from 4 different angles - the tendancy for the Artic Oscillation to create blocking (though neutral right now); a negative NAO pushing highs further south (currently positive, moving toward neutral) and allowing the SW Atlantic Ridge to fire instead of trofs despite the backing of the longwaves over time; the western Atlantic Ridge as a dominate feature; and what kind of western component forcing due to the negative as the warm water in the Central Pacific is starting to take hold.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
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Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 21 July 2004 - 12:00 PM EDT
A vigorous tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea has flared for the third morning in a row. Dry air is encompassing the wave, but the subsidence appears to be having only a limited effect on thunderstorm activity. In all likelyhood, the remaining wind shear aloft is causing enough divergence to enhance convection. Additionally, a surface circulation may also be triggering bursts in activity. Latest Satellite Analysis Branch estimates are 1.5, the highest the estimate has been for this wave.
Morning visible imagery reveals that the overall structure has become much better organized over the past 6-12 hours. This is a clear indication that upper level winds are becoming more condusive development. Shear levels in the low levels of the atmosphere are now fairly light, with only moderate winds aloft. The mid to low level circulation is located along the western side of the strongest core of convection. Visible imagery also suggests that a surface circulation may be in the beginning stages of development. There is some evidence of more turning at the surface based on low level cloud features. Regardless, it may not be long before the first tropical depression of the season is classified. A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area late this afternoon. If the recon can find a closed LLC, we could very well have tropical storm Alex, since winds may already be stronger than 39MPH.
Looking down the road, conditions are expected to become more condusive for development. Over recent days, the tropical wave has had to contend with dry and and moderate wind shear mainly due to a strong upper low situated over the western Atlantic. An upper level anticyclone will develop over the western Caribbean within the next 72 hours. Winds in all levels are expected to decrease, which will make ventilation a lot easier. Therefore, the potential for development increases as the wave enters the western Caribbean. Some dry air will still be in place, and that could become a problem, only if sinking air is entrained into the surface circulation. But we don't expect this parameters to completely inhibit development. The SHIPS model takes the low up to 76 knots, but SHIPS forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt, at least until we have a classified tropical storm. Tropical depressions are not included in the SHIPS database, so these forecasts are not very reliable.
It is rather obvious that the wave is not taking a northerly track into the Bahamas or southwest Atlantic. The low level steering flow is pushing the wave west. This general movement should continue for the next several days. However, the amount of latitude gained over the next 48 hours is crucial for the long term. The BAM models keep the developing low on a westerly track. At 96 hours, the BAM models place the system over Belize. The 5-day 500MB forecast shows similar results. While the does not pick up on the wave very well, it does show that the easterly flow will remain in place. The main steering feature is a mid to upper level ridge currently in place over the Florida Straits area. If you take a look at a water vapor loop, you can see faint signs of the ridge. The ridge is expected to remain in place over the next few days, causing the easterly flow to remain strong. Based on this data, the most reasonable forecast is a track into the Yucatan peninsula. But what we have to watch for, is if the wave can gain enough latitude, it may have a slightly higher chance of moving into the central Gulf. It must be noted that none of the global models have been able to grasp the wave very well. Model data should become much more reliable within the next 24 hours.
http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html
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Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Saw that also. I think its just a test in Tlh. But the timing might be good. Bobbi, watch the visibles when you have them, the IRs are deceiving sometimes, though I agree that a circulation at low levels is forming....looks like west/northwest movement will continue, and I agree with Steve, if there is an LCC its in the western portion with the convection tagging along as best it can.
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I'm probably looking too far into the future here, but if 97L gets classified and moves into the GOM would there be much to prevent it from becoming Hurricane Alex? There is warm water, fairly moist air and not much shear forecast. I know I'm getting ahead of myself and this system has a long way to go yet, but it's food for thought. Anyone have any thoughts?
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LI Phil
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>>> Ok, for the actual date I'll say...July 22.
These guys from IWIC really know their stuff, huh?
Jason, excellent post (again). Must have read the recon schedule wrong, I thought they weren't sending in the plane until tomorrow. I can't imagine they'll find Alex today, but you never know. Wonder if the #s will be bumped up too.
As far as the track, I'm tending to agree that this is not going over Hispaniola but west.
Can Alex be far behind...from MY little wave that could? 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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No there wouldn't. Funny though that the 12Z doesn't recognize the wave, but does develop a low off the SE Coast. It also reconizes a low SW of the CV islands, which should develop over time. Funny Rabbit, I've been tracking storms for over 40 years, and I don't consider myself an expert.....seen a lot of things though
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bobbi
Unregistered
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I see that was impt enough for to get a good reading on IF there is any surface low pressure where exactly it is.
Without the exact pin point of surface low pressure and possible LLC the models are basically worthless and for entertainment value only. If you have the wrong starting point you end up at the wrong end point with models and tropical forecast predicting.
Convection has died down noticeably... most likely temporary considering how moody this system is. It does seem to be able to get convection up but.. doesn't seem to be able to maintain it. Being real good here, hope someone appreciates that.
So.. want to say Jason M does an unreal beautiful job of forecasting and respect his ability to write and keep whole sentences going at the same time. Bet he got As for grammar.
I was always better on content than grammar.
See what you are pointing to on visible.. just not ready to buy into any one thought on this system other than I still think it's west bound with the slightest pull to the north.
Waiting to see what the recon finds. But, if it peters out the rest of the day like it's doing now.. they are going to be real pissy when they get there. doesn't like to be jerked around and have waited along time so far to finally take a close look at it. Either way.. nice to get the planes in the air I suppose.
Bobbi
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rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Now 97L looks like it is heading west; it is interesting how unpredictable it has been and apparently has stymied even the best of the forecasters.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Am sure someone here knows exactly which site I mean.
Can you post the Unisys long water vapor loop.. 12 hour one.. shows ALL of America (upstream) and the tropics including our wave.
Please.. want to look at things up stream and the one I'm mostly using is too close in.
Thank u.. yes the Invest blown up is real nice but I want the Unisys site I like best. please.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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The latest quickscat posted on showed a 1011mb wind with 25knot winds. There is no circulation in that photo, but you can see the beginnings of a twist on the W side of the system. There are a bunch of 35-40knot winds in the center or eastern side of the system, mostly blowing from SE to ENE as would be expected from an open wave. If you go to the Homesite, click on 97L, click on Scat, and then click again on the picture to change it from a 35k jpg to a 920k jpg (closer in, high resolution). NRL Home
Scat was from 1017z.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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For Bobbi
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Not real good news. Looked at that site ..blown up REAL big.. if that is the center its out in front of the convection and might be outrunning itself. Just a thought..not sure, need more frames.
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Steve
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not bad news either. It shows the ingredients are there if not the actual twist. Btw, the link I posted, you'll have to click on Loop12, here's the loop 12 in force:
Unisys WV Loop 12 Hour
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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bobbi
Unregistered
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appreciate it
time tells.. lets wait and see
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ticka1
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Loc: Southeast Texas
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Thanks for the link Steve. Interesting loop. As Bobbi said tell will tell.
:?:
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LI Phil
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In checking the site, I notice that the last "post" was 11:45 UTC. The next post should be 17:45, which equates to 12:45 EST. Is there a "lag" in posting these numbers? I'm just curious. Anyone know the deal?
Thanks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Why wanted to send a plane in just in case.
If it developed would most likely be pulled more NW.. WNW.. but only IF.. otherwise ... a wave will go west.
thanks.. like a long lost old friend 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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No problem y'all. Here's the 2:05 TWD. It addresses the lack of a west wind and the apparent LLC that popped out west of the system earlier today. I'd say wait for the 5 o'clock . I don't think they'll classify it today, but it's getting close. Put me in the blue state column that this (if not the trailing wave with the low pressure behind it) will probably be Alex by the time it's all said and done.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
POPPING OUT WEST OF THE CONVECTION FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT THE
FEATURE HAS SINCE MOVED BACK UNDER THE CANOPY OF THE ASSOCIATED
TSTMS. WHEN THE CIRCULATION WAS EXPOSED...IT WAS NOT CLEAR THAT
IT WAS AT THE SURFACE AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING
AGREED BY NOT SHOWING A WLY WIND COMPONENT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 15-20 KT OF WLY SHEAR COURTESY OF A
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SHEAR
MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER W OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3
INCHES...ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.
Steve
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 22 2004 02:56 AM)
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