Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
POPPING OUT WEST OF THE CONVECTION FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT THE
FEATURE HAS SINCE MOVED BACK UNDER THE CANOPY OF THE ASSOCIATED
TSTMS. WHEN THE CIRCULATION WAS EXPOSED...IT WAS NOT CLEAR THAT
IT WAS AT THE SURFACE AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING
AGREED BY NOT SHOWING A WLY WIND COMPONENT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 15-20 KT OF WLY SHEAR COURTESY OF A
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SHEAR
MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES FARTHER W OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3
INCHES...ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.
Let's now wait for recon to see what they find.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
Does that sound familiar? Hopefully someone will warn those folks so we don't have a repeat of the May system, albeit this one is further south.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Looks like it's movement has slowed down, maybe a better chance at development.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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LI Phil... your T #'s remain the same for now.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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bobbi
Unregistered
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I really don't like doing this but am tempted to do so. And, especially because I don't like this system.. think it has an irritating, annoying temperment. Fickle or flakey not sure which but it's been consistently so either way so...
I'm going to "predict" its going to be upgraded to Depression status. Not sure if on the first run trip in or second.. Suppose if it makes it through the night again (though its not showing signs of going to sleep again.. i don't trust it).
I dont see it on the various sites that show wind direction and loops.. more a gut feeling here. Something is going on and think more so something has changed.
I could be wrong.. rarely make a decision early on though.
Obnoxious little brat will probably fall apart now just to spite me.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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T-numbers are still at 1.5/1.5, it will be interesting to see what Recon find, guess we will know by 5pm or 5:30pm
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I'm sure 97L isn't trying to annoy you on purpose Bobbi. It's probably just a little annoyed at what it's had to contend with the past few days.  Maybe it is beginning to become more stable and consistent. I have to say I think this system may be upgraded later today.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Upgraded or not, the system (according to the most recent quickscat), appears to be an open wave (albeit a vigorous one with lots of wind)
Latest Quickscat
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I agree w/ all who think this will be upgraded soon... keeping a mostly westward track for the next few days 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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bobbi
Unregistered
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really think there is a strong twist there.. haven't read discussion..too much to do and only so much i can do.
think its not beyond realm of possibility that something can form at the tail end of that front.. seems to be an upper level feature but not sure and curious
as for the A storm.. if this is it.. fits the bill.
Agree..not yet there.. usually expect planes to find something and they don't..this time I hope they will find something to explain whats going on better.. who knows..
Think its outrunning itself.. may do that and then pull it together again and therein become the system we are waiting for..
Maybe that twist kept going and no one told it that the rest of the wave was about to slow down.
will see..taking late lunch
surprise me when i get back.. please!
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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97L still looks like just a strong wave with thunderstorms, it may form later but don't think it will today, I think one reason is sending Recon out is because history shows nothing ever form before in this area in July. Who knows.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve,
Good call on the Quickskat. I was actually viewing this one from the Navy, and wasn't quite sure what I was looking at (thought it was an open wave). Then I saw your post which confirmed what I thought. Couple of 45 kt. readings there, and a lot at 40 kts.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Guys, I've come out of my summertime hibernation since there seems to be a potential player out there. My thoughts are about the sameas everyone elses. The storms associated with the wave will continue to blossom then fade away until a LLC is firmly established. I dont think it will be to long befoer a LLC comes out of this system, it just needs to slowdown a bit. I dunno where its headed, but I'd watch out if it gets in the gulf and has a better enviroment to work with...This could pop fast with such high SST's in the Gulf. Anyways I'll be watching, Hope ya'll have a good day...and by the way is RECON going into the storm now? or is that scheduled for tomorrow? Thanks Alot
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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RECON Plan Map
Droop,
As you can see, Recon should be out there about 21Z (4ish CDT).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Current Vortex Message
If you look at the previous two, the plane is headed NW. They turned around for whatever reason (presumably because the system is obviously still a wave).
We'll have to see what blows up tonight and what type of pesistance it has. I'd expect a "little more" than today and then on Friday.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Looks like it's going into "fizzle mode" again, we'll have to see what it looks like when it refires again, maybe we'll see some development tomorrow, probably won't happen today.
Old Sailor was right again!
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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At least it's moving into a more favourable area for development. I sure hope that this wave will become Alex. This system has been up and down like a yo-yo the past few days. Hopefully I won't get up tomorrow morning to find it has disappeared from the satellite imagery.  With any luck it'll cling on like it has the past few days. 
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Would they fly all the way back to __________? Or would they stay based down there somewhere for later? I know sometimes when there is an Atlantic system they stay down in the islands ..right?
How does that work?
Did they really turn back?
Guess pissy was a good use of the word afterall.
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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James & TG,
It's still a pretty robust wave...but unfortunately it is still just a wave, going thru phases of intensification. It'll still be there tomorrow. Unless of course the sun doesn't rise tomorrow.
Will be interesting what says at the 5:00 .
As far as the plane turning around (are you sure it did?), I have a couple of questions. I'm sure had quickskat data as well as #'s remaining at 1.5/1.5. Wouldn't that data be enough NOT to send out recon to begin with? I'm not questioning the decision...they must have had something to go on. Just seems that from all the available data, it should be apparent it's not a TD yet. Right?
Thanks to anyone who can answer.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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The reminants of the center that was discussed by the earlier are still visible at around 16.29 74.04. Well to the west of the convection. This corresponds to the wind shift present on the Quik Stats. Tomorrow may be more likely, or even Friday, but for now, the environment is still a little too hostile.
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