James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The classification is up to 1.5 from too weak. This means that 97L is currently packing winds of 25 kts. This is getting even more interesting...
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Last night I watched the TW update on and the lady pointed out that this system (97L) is moving into an area that would be more favorable for development because there is practically no shear at all. She said that there has NEVER been a storm that developed there this time of year. Dr. Steve Lyons pretty much wrote it off the other night because "there has never been a storm that developed there this time of year". Well, it looks like 97L just might be the storm that "THAT NEVER DEVELOPED THERE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR" .
Just have to keep watching .... and waiting...patiently. A storm won't develop just because people are arguing about it. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
can see cloud tops being blow off away from the storm from the shear and the signs of shear to its SW ...suppose if not for that it would have clearer sailing
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Southeast Texas
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Patience is a good term to use. Typical tropical system with ups and downs that keep us guessing. Definitely on the upside this morning and the T-numbers increasing could be a positive sign. Let's see if it can maintain its convection longer than 12-24 hours. 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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They have test models up now for Tropical Depression Invest 97L.
Here's the general link:
WREL Hurricane Center
Here's the 9:00am posting: 9:03am 7-21-04
This one was posted around 5:40am. It looks as though the models decreased the winds in the latter model.
97L 7/21/04 5:38am
There is no Text Model up as of yet.
Any thoughts?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Well, I guess we'll find out sooner or later, huh? I believe the exact wording she used yesterday was something like, "If it can stay together it will be entering a more favorable environment with PRACTICALLY no shear" which sounds like "light shear" to me.
Just repeating what they said.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Quote:
Well, I guess we'll find out sooner or later, huh?
Definately. This sytem seems to be the best candidate for TD #1 so far this season. It has been persistent, tenacious and is moving into an area more favourable for development. It is a strong wave and it will probably not take a lot to allow a LLC to develop. Hopefully the outflow will become better in the near future. When the centre begins to get wrapped in the convection and the wave starts to slow down, it will probably develop. Even so, it may develop before those things happen. The next few hours will be very interesting.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a tropical system sometime in the next 48 hours. I hope so anyway! 
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I wonder if there is that possibility of the system moving more NW than w-NW? It appears to be doing just that in the sats.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Southeast Texas
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Can someone please post the link to the site where they show a system as an invest? I don't have the link here at work.
Thanks,
Ticka1
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Edited by ticka1 (Wed Jul 21 2004 10:35 AM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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MY little wave appears to be growing up a tad this morning. I'm wondering about the direction, too, as it does appear on sat to be moving in a more northerly direction, even though it is still chugging west. The area to the immediate west is definitely a low shear area. Still no LLC, but as James said, that may begin to form as the day progresses. The fact that it's got a rating now is also a plus. Hopefully they'll run a new set of #'s at 1745UTC. hasn't issued a recon advisory yet, but it should be out shortly.
Much to watch today, much to watch...
For Ticka
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Jul 21 2004 10:37 AM)
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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Let us know when it hits puberty, please...
Has a real twist at the center however a little concerned with the last few images.. Seems to be losing its spin. Looked better a few hours ago.
I know.. patience. Have to tell you in case you haven't noticed. I'm not the real patient type.
There is an area of less shear to its west but it's not there yet Phil. I don't think so and the clouds streaming off of SA to its south don't show low shear either.
Also..wondering what is going to blow off of SA today from thunderstorms that might transfer some extra moisture to it.
Is it moving more north or is that just cloud tops being blown off because I'm looking at the central blow ups and don't see much of a northerly component.
Yes..I said central blow offs.. as in CENTER.
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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I don't want to beat a dead horse Phil (and others) especially on this site but if you look at the IR COLOR loop on invest.. you will see that the green area is smallest in the SW part of the storm.. Red is hanging in there pretty much but the green is very small on the SW side indicating effects from shear.
Not rooting against it.. just pointing out the obvious that needs to be watched. Of course when it gets to that spot in SW Carib that has been dying to produce a storm the last month or so.. maybe watch out.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I don't know if it is losing its spin. It's possible, but I wonder whether it may have something to do with the wave slowing down. If you look at the visible loop, 97L does not seem to be moving as fast as it was a few hours ago. Just my opinion, for what it's worth.
BTW, there's a recon planned for this system now.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1045 AM EDT WED 21 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUL 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-053
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...NEAR JAMAICA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 22/1200,1800Z A. 23/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 22/0800Z C. 22/2030Z
D. 17.5N 76.5W D. 18.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1830Z E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF THIS AREA HAS
BEEN TASKED FOR THIS AFTERNOON (APPROXIMATELY 22/2100Z).
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Edited by James88 (Wed Jul 21 2004 10:56 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Let us know when it hits puberty, please
hahahahahahahahaha
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97L's looking a little stronger this morning. I'm assuming any circulation is out front of the system. It's got that classic MLC look where the convection is east of whatever rotation is there. We're all familiar with that over the last few years. Lyons yesterday evening had a chart of winds ahead of the system. It consisted of concentric ovals from 12k to 18k shear. In my world, that's not much of an attack on a wave. Also, the ULL and trof north of the system doesn't seem to be having much of an effect except to pull in a little of the wave's moisture.
The Tropical Models seem to be going with a VERY southerly solution. I haven't looked at any of the updated Globals to see if they're still factoring in a potential Carolinas blowup yet. That's coming. Here in New Orleans, there is a major exercise going on for "Hurricane Pam" where dozens of experts are here in town working on disaster recovery. It was a big story in yesterday's paper and I didn't get much of a chance to read it. If anyone is interested, please click on the link below. There is no registration but it may ask for a zip and gender (lie if you gotta).
Hurricane Pam
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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bobbi
Unregistered
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I'm not sure who "she" is.. truth is I don't trust many of the mets over there on tropical systems besides Cantore, Morrow, Siedel and sometimes Schwartz. Not much on the women there.. liked Jill Brown but she left.
IF Cantore said it was moving into light shear.. I'd believe him.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I consider myself somewhat of an expert when it comes to forecasting tropical events; the best example was my spot-on forecast with Irene in 1999 when forecast it to go west of Tampa. But when I am wrong, I admit it, and this may (hopefully) be one of those times.
look at the lump in Haiti between Cap-Hatien in Haiti and the border with Dominican Rebublic, and look directly south at about 16-17N, something is definately turning, although weak
this could be the circulation, because at 15N the LOW clouds in a very small area are going to the east (I say low level because they dont really show up as high clouds on IR images)
visible floater
Edited by Rabbit (Wed Jul 21 2004 11:25 AM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thanks for the link Steve. Sounds as though you've really got things organised and are prepared for a landfall in New Orleans. Hopefully that landfall will never come.
Regarding 97L, the burst of convection looks to have ended, and the convection seems to be fading a little bit. Still, these bursts don't last forever, and it may flare up again in the coming hours as the heat of the day increases.
Well spotted, Rabbit. This makes things much more interesting (not that they weren't before). Wonder what the recon will discover...
Edited by James88 (Wed Jul 21 2004 11:27 AM)
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
LIKELY REACH JAMAICA TOMORROW AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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My review of the latest satellite pics confirms to me that this system has survived the shear from the sw and will move in the next 6 hrs away from that, putting it behind so to speak, and it has the look of a developing system. Tthe morning pictures show the effect of the shear as it has flattened and elongated the system and actually according to slightly lessened the convection, but the shear will be south and east of it soon...Better outflow north and northeast, consistent movement south of the island so it will not encounter any land friction for the next day or so.
good possibility. EDS.
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doug
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Jill Brown--yes!! Great met, brains and photogenic, a very nice person overall!
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