Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Ed:
I looked for a weak circulation near or in the area of 16.N, 68W But couldn't see anything maybe it's my old eyes, the GOM of W Carri seems to settle down tonight.
Dave
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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What was 97L doesn't look like much at the moment, and it has very little (if any) associated convection. Maybe it will flare up as it moves into the GOM. As Steve said, it's about seeing what this wave has got. Notice that as far as SSTs go, the Gulf is extremely favourable for development. Since there's been no upwelling by other storms, the water has been allowed to warm undisturbed, and as a result there are now some pockets of 32-33 degree water - the kind of temperature that can support a hurricane of any category. The GOM may well prove to be a very dangerous area this season. Interesting to note that just a couple of months ago people were saying that nothing would happen there because of below average sea temperatures.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, 98L is not ready to give up yet! Check out the latest :-
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH OF MONTAUK LONG ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULFSTREAM. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
MPH...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THEN A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY..AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
INITIATED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED LATER
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT BY TONIGHT.
ESLEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
If it develops it would obviously be short lived, but it would be a tropical entity nonetheless!  Looks like July may get a tropical system after all. It is unlikely that it would reach tropical storm status, but who knows, maybe it will surprise us.
As earlier posts have mentioned, this does bear some similarity to Henri in '85.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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James:
If this was the fall or winter this system looks like be a good classic "nor'easter storm, in some ways it just maybe one depending on how 98L combines with the low coming off of the East Coast.. Just wait and see.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Woke up this morning..
put on the wxr radio ... haha Phil gets his storm
I mean thought I was still dreaming. Did the really say they expect development? Winds already 25-30.. and potential to be... then again they did hedge and say possibly a subtropical low.. but wouldnt be surprised if they sound so bullish at 5am for it to be Alex* subtropical.
Somehow sort of perfect, like to get that name over with and officially will be a July storm and... can we move onto Bonnie in the Atlantic?
Sort of reminds me of a skater in an old vaudeville skit.. skates on the stage, does some trick and joke and keeps skating off stage.. in between acts... waiting for Bonnie to come on stage. Here today...gone tomorrow... but officially on the books.
Is that the way its going to be?
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 28 2004 01:04 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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What was left of 97L is now in the BAY OF CAMPECHE , and part of the wave that broke off is adding to storms with a front coming off of Tx, La.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Looked at your loop... the GOM loop. Hard to not notice the showers in the GOM.. BOC... low ..not buying into too much but still.. has a swirl of funny look. Like a blue lava lamp turned sideways. Another year I'd pay attention but my eyes turn eastward, still wondering.. is there any possibility?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Maybe this will become Alex, it depends on how well it holds together. It's looking good on imagery at the moment, with plenty of deep convection. Funny how a system can suddenly come to life again in a matter of hours.
As Old Sailor said, the low coming off the East Coast could be decisive. Looks like Phil may get his storm a little closer to home!
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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26/1145 UTC 38.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 98 -- Atlantic Ocean
Well according to SSD yes but at 11 AM we will know for sure if the advisory comes out.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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bobbi
Unregistered
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So...okay, does it have a chance at anything or not. That was my question. And.. you answered the one about whether or not its part of the other wave before they became seperated.
thanks
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Not long until we'll find out, then. I wouldn't be surprised if it did get uprgraded, but I doubt it would last very long at all. The convection already seems to be weakening, but then to quote a much used example, TD #4 in 2000 had hardly any, so this system has a few things giong for it. Let's wait and see...
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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hey guys, posting this off a mobile device as i'm at work, so not sure if it'll work. 98L certainly looks good, wouldn't be surprised to see it classified as a TD or STD at 15z today. Unfortunately i cant update my site til i get home at 1930z! typical. hopefully by then we'll have our first classified but short-lived system.
Regards as always 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Looks like Phil may get his storm a little closer to home!
Wow, you stay away from the computer for 36 hours and lookie what happens. Haven't really had any chance to check out the models, just looked at some ir loops. 98L could actually develop!
As far as my "wish" or my "storm," nah. That was my June 14 first guess, and then 97L (which could somehow, incredibly, come back to life).
No...the first storm is going to be EVERYBODY's storm. Let's get it out of the way already. Be nice to get something named in July, but at this point, I'll even take a TD.
Namtheun really bombed out in the WPAC and two new Invests in the EPAC. And how did Celia hold on for so long?
Can Alex be that far behind?
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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no..not mine, I'm all southern but.. figure you may as well watch from where others up there might be watchin
nice view of convection building, but is it enough for a name?
http://www.wmtw.com/Global/link.asp?L=1705
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Apparently this system is moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, so it doesn't have a huge amount of time left, but I still think it will develop. The first tropical system doesn't form in this area that often, but is does happen. I doubt that this will get named Alex, but it may surprise us. It will be nice to get that name out of the way, there have been so many false alarms. Even so, hopefully the name will get attached to a worthwhile system.
Regarding the 2 invests in the E. Pacific, I think that one may well be upgraded to TD #5E today, and then possibly Darby.
A lot of activity today, it seems.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Like I said the other day, my feeling is that 97L lost it's chance in the West Carri.... May just bring some rain to Mex orTex.
Dave
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Not sure if 98L will be classified at 11AM, probably would have switched 98L invest to 01 Noname. Correct me if this is incorrect. But as previously mentioned by Cycloneye, according to SSD winds are estimated at 30kts.
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jul 26 2004 02:44 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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it will not be classified; they didnt classifiy the other two or three depressions this year
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bobbi
Unregistered
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http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/AT/2xpxIRSatellite.html
Whats with the area out there east of Bahamas/N of PR.. is that an upper low that is beginning to catch some moisture? Keep trying to ignore it but its making me look. Have looked on a few sats this morning.. just playing here for now.
Not sure if there is enough deep color in that invested system to warrant a name vs depression status but.. will know soon. Doesn't look all that good but does have the rating and its not really tropical in my opinion.. more subtropical so they do look different, don't they?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Tend to agree Dave. I've been holding out hope for the last buncha days, but it doesn't seem like it's gonna crank. It was a wave I enjoyed tracking, but it never could get its act together. I'm tending to agree that it should be Mex/Tex moisture (some models over the last few days have it moving up NNE-NE through Texas once inland a couple hundred miles in Mexico. Weather's weird here today. It feels like fall almost. Temps are 84 and sunny - not bad for a late July morning.
98L seems to be enjoying the Gulf Stream. It's either the 2nd or 3rd Depression of the year in my book. Whether or not chooses to classify it or not remains to be seen. It could go either way, but with up to 2.0/2.0, one would think they'll at least consider it. The Bermuda High is pretty far west and this most likely kept the coast dry.
For this week, the thing to watch will be the wave NW of Puerto Rico as it retrogrades into the North Central Gulf. The UK Met and especially the (European Model) like a fairly substantial wave moving into Texas later this week. That would teleconnect nicely to what's going on in the WPAC with the Typhoon moving west at 30 North.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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