bobbi
Unregistered
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Good thoughts, elaborate more please on how that system gets into the Gulf.. please.
And, thanks for posting my favorite link awhile back..its like having breadcrumbs.. I can always find it when I need it. Thanks.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I agree, It will NOT be classified.
I'm sticking to the notion that there will
not be a named system in July.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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my forecast for the year:
14 storms will form
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 26 2004 06:12 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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that last anonymous was me; the login page wouldnt come up
I am very close to giving up on this hurricane season and finding something else to occupy my time. do we need a cat 5 hurricane before the decides to classify something??
we have a tropical or subtropical depression in the Atlantic, what are they waiting for?
there is convecion, an LLC, outflow to the east, and a somewhat tropical appearance
just like 2000:
td4 was a TS according to recon, but not classified as one
45mph tropical storm TS on Aug 12 (same area as this one), never classified
subtropical storm at the end of August; well-defined LLC and 40mph winds at NC landfall, not classified
subtropical storm at the beginning of October, looked much stronger than the later one; not classified
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 28 2004 12:05 AM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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98L looks quite similiar to Arthur in 2002 just before he got classified. It was obviously a different situation then, but I just noticed the similar appearance on satellite imagery.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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I noticed that too
why have they not classified anything this year???
the only hope (which will likely be proven wrong when the outlook comes out) is that maybe a recon plane is on the way and maybe they'll classify it at 2pm
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Good thoughts, elaborate more please on how that system gets into the Gulf.. please.
Probably right across Florida. A very strong ridge will be building in from the east and everything in the way will get moved off to the west (retrograde style). likes the idea of a ridge from Utah all the way across the SE (and probably up toward Scandanavia if my map went that far East).
>>And, thanks for posting my favorite link awhile back..its like having breadcrumbs.
Was that the Canadian site with the green background?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I have nothing but respect for the and the good work that they do every season, but I have to admit that they seem to be reluctant to classify some systems this year. They've called some dubious systems in the past, but when one that is quite clearly worthy of an upgrade at some point comes along, they ignore it. Once again, I would like to stress that they do a great job with their forecasts, and that they are very knowledgeable, so I wouldn't expect to see a system with an eye and banding features described as a 'well defined tropical wave' in an outlook this year.
Time for that word again - 'Patience'. 
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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I noticed that the EP system hasnt been upgraded yet, meybe the site just hasnt been updated (hopefully)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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nrl site no longer comming up
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bobbi
Unregistered
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ummmmmmmm don't make me laugh so hard, people gonna wonder what i'm laughing at.. oh Steve..
I meant THIS one .. of course ..
http://www.weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Oh course if you want to send me that Canadian one again, oh I'd be quite the happy tracker too!! Really, really.
And..so like next time someone asks what Andrew was all about I'll just say he was retrograding his way towards Louisianna across Florida.. oh I see.
Bugs.. ummm forgot what I was going to say.. you're right. It has the signature.. really good signature for at least classification as a depression. Even if short lived.
You know.. sometimes something doesn't have to hang around for a long, long time to make a BIG impression.
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James88
Weather Master
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Yes Rabbit, I was expecting that to be upgraded at this advisory, but as you said, maybe the site just hasn't been updated. I think it's a great candidate to become Darby.
Back to the Atlantic, I think that if 98L doesn't get upgraded by 5pm, it will be to late, since it is moving towards cooler waters and may be absorbed later tonight.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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the satellite is still from 10:32am
also, here are the 2000 systems I alluded to
45 mph northwest of Alberto
subtropical storm--NC
sort of looks like Arthur in 1996
subtropical low off of Canada
Edited by Rabbit (Mon Jul 26 2004 03:22 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NHC will not classify according to , as the system is merging with a frontal zone. Also i can't help noticing that almost everyones rating has been reduced to one star, including my own. I guess some don't think too much of the frequent posters.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, I guess we can quit following 98L now. How many systems will fail to get assigned TD status this season? How many so far?
(none & none)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 28 2004 12:09 AM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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ABNT20 KNHC 261519
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK LONG
ISLAND IS MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOW
APPEARS UNLIKELY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADERS NFDHSFAT1 AND NFDOFFNT2 AND
UNDER WMO HEADERS FZNT01 KWBC AND FZNT22 KWBC.
ESLEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Well guys now the waiting continues for the first storm of the season.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Old Sailor:
You kind of called it this morning more like an nor'easter storm.,,,,,,,,,, 
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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...but within ourselves.
>>> Also i can't help noticing that almost everyones rating has been reduced to one star, including my own.
Last week I was busted down from 3 to 2 stars, probably on my way to 1. I wouldn't worry too much about it. In fact, look at it as a 'badge of honor.' You've obviously made someone upset (maybe not you...maybe someone else) and they're taking it out on the board. Who cares?
It's the weather that's important, not your rating. Keep up your excellent posts. 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I am lowering my major hurricane forecast from 6 to 5; this is not a change of forecast
Every chat and forum I have been on I've been saying 14/9/5
I am not sure exactly why i had it so high
and here is the forecast itself
AUGUST 4/3/2
several recent active seasons (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000) have had for storms in August, and 2001 and 2002 had four by the end of August
SEPTEMBER 5/3/2
OCTOBER 4/2/1
NOVEMBER 1/1/0
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I was wondering why people like HanKFranK, Steve and Phil (to name just a few) were down to 2 stars. Oh well, as Phil said, the focus is on the weather.
BTW Phil, you asked how many systems should have been classified but weren't - I make it 4. Just a matter of opinion I guess.
Edited by James88 (Mon Jul 26 2004 04:00 PM)
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