jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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TD2 looks fairly impressive this morning. I think the models are out to lunch with this one. She has not strengthened like they forecast and therefore is staying well south. Should she strengthen soon, then maybe she will turn north. That said, she is entering the graveyard. I would not expect strengthening for a day or two. By that point, any influence from the trough will be minimal. She may slam straight into Central America. Best guess though is that she crosses Cuba instead of between DR and PR. from there, who knows.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Not much happening in Trinidad:
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TTCP 041200Z 12012KT 9999 FEW015 BKN300 29/25 Q1014
Grenada doesn't look like much either:
Wind from the S (170 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TGPY 041200Z 17008KT 9999 FEW018 BKN038 BKN280 27/25 Q1013
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It's looking less and less likely that TD #2 will remain a classified system at 11:00. Maybe a very small and weak circulation will be found, but I'm not sure at the moment. A question though - if the system is found to be a tropical wave, what are its chances of regenerating? It is well organised and may slow down today, giving it a slightly better chance. Any thoughts?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hello James: I'd think if the wave proceeds to turn NW as influenced by the trough it may regenerate in the vicinity just NE of Cuba/Bahamas and threaten the SE coast again before turning N then NE; or, it may simply follow the route taken by Mitch (Hopefully not) and become a wicked storm slamming into Central America!
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I think you could be right about development if it turns NW. Alternatively, if it tracks further west into the E. Caribbean (which seems to have some reasonably strong shear values) it might get torn apart. Whatever happens, this system is sure making some good topics for discussion!
Meanwhile, Alex is still looking impressive as he wanders out into the North Atlantic. Let's see if he makes it all the way to Europe as an system (thanks for the heads up HF).
Cheers
Edited by James88 (Wed Aug 04 2004 01:29 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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An observation and a question.
The plane made a NW to SE pass earlier. Flew back NW, then W and is now flying NE, across what looks to be the path of the center. Last report it was just before crossing where the center should be. I haven't tried this before and it's not easy.
Question: If they find a closed wind field with less than 34kt winds, does it reamin a depression, or revert to a wave?
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Looks more and more like Rabbit has the call on TD#2. He gets due credit if his prediction comes through but then again he also has those college text books and fancy programs...
Nice to have a textbook opinion on this forum. We will see.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Can't comment on Ed's argument, as I have no way to refute the lack of a west wind, except by visually interpreting sat. pics, which seem to suggest a closed lowythis morning...but who knows. Flight data will tells us all soon.
I still believe the argument on the trough is off in this case. Water vapor shows the trough rapidly advancing but it also confirms the tropical moisture plume expanding northward across the entire Florida and south Alabama area ahead of it. This northward advance seems enhanced by a (according to me) developing ULL over the northern GOM and a resulting flattening of the base of the trough. Thus I argue that the trough while strong will no infiltrate the Gulf Coast areas significantly enough to influence this system which has persisted in a 20kt westward motion, and that seems to be continuing.
This resistance to a more northward pull could be because it has no definite circulation at this time, as discussed by the . But in any event the two models 90 and 98 are calling for a more westward solution, and those assume a definite circulation.
I still foresee development and a deep penetration into the Carribean before recurvature.
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doug
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TLPC 041200Z 16013G26KT 3000NEKM -SHRA FEW015CB BKN017 OVC080 24/23 Q1014 RMK CB SOUTH
TLPL 041200Z 13015G25KT SHRA SCT010CB BKN015 OVC080 24/23 Q1015
TBPB 041300Z 13014KT 9999 -RA FEW010CB BKN140 27/26 Q1015/A29/9 9 CB--DIST ESE/S
TVSV 041300Z 00000KT 6000 RA SCT010CB BKN012 OVC080 25/24 Q1014 CB SE-W
Here's a nice point and click map of the Caribbean from San Juan NWS.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/sju/caribm.html
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for posting your thoughts, Ed. When it comes from a met, I take a forecast with more than a grain of salt.
I don't want to see my hopes for Bonnie dashed, but thus far, it's lack of development is a good thing for the Islands.
Others have said it, but if TD2 doesn't slow down, it will definitely miss the trof and head toward the graveyard...but I'm not convinced it will meet that fate. Once this gets into the w carib, watch out. By morning light, I'm less and less convinced the trof will pick it up, slow it down, and strengthening will begin.
We'll see, Bugsy could be right on this one too.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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11 AM AST WED AUG 04 2004
..WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED AS POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION
CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI LATER TODAY.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARTINIQUE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH AS THE
DEPRESSION PASSED BY THIS MORNING. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF IT
CAN MAINTAIN A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IF THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ITS PRESENT MOTION...IT COULD
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
SQUALLS IN THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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TD #2 is still with us! This could become Bonnie within 24 hours if it can maintain a closed circulation - BUT IT NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN! if it continues its present motion, it may well dissipate. Talk about a persistent storm.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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The recon plane has found no evidence of a closed surface circulation in the depression..
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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So technically they're issuing advisories on a tropical wave?
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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James:
Read the 11:00AM Discussion it explains why they are keeping it for now as a TD>.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I guess they are betting on a slowing down scenario together with a W-NW turn that would suggest development of tropical storm winds by the time it reaches Hispaniola/Cuba.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a link for the discussion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/040842.shtml?
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Oh, I see. Thanks Old Sailor.
BTW, Alex is looking pretty impressive as he zooms off into the great blue yonder.
Edited by James88 (Wed Aug 04 2004 03:22 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The discusion did not mention the considerable SW shear that seems to be effecting the convection.
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doug
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Kind ladies and gentlemen of the boards...
You should all check out the Storm Forum, where HanKFranK has set up a challenge on TD2. Rules are all there...prizes TBD but may involve a ride on HF's pickup and a six pack of beer.
So take the TD2 challenge today...entries will only be accepted until 10pm tonight.
Cheers & Good Luck
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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