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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Could something brew? GOM [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18014 - Sat Aug 07 2004 07:02 PM

My last look at the loops for GOM made me take a second look at what appears to be an upper level low on the tail end of that Glob of the cold front.. It is in an extremely volatile place in the gulf in terms of storms kicking it up a notch before landfall. Some that come to mind are Kate, Josephine, Erin, and Opal. Not all in the same year but worthy of words none-the-less.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sat Aug 07 2004 07:05 PM)


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HanKFranK
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dunce cap [Re: LI Phil]
      #18015 - Sat Aug 07 2004 07:07 PM

worked all day, hoped there would be some real activity to talk about once home.. denied. 91 and 92L seem intent on not developing, so i'm about ready to rest my case and let my clients go receive their judgment. 91L is a classic case of losing any semblance of surface organization just in time for the upper environment to improve, 92L the classic case of great little surface system, greater shear. i'll consign them to their fates, call 91L a very marginal development risk that is bound for a yucatan/BOC trajectory, and give 92L up to either the upper shear (the jets seem to be almost overlapping, and plenty of robber convection is persisting NE of the actual system), or the deep trough which is not too far ahead. likely to lose its identity by monday. i guess shooting at rabbit's feet isn't going to pay this time. varmint was dancing to another drummer. apparently being a moderator doesn't beget any new forecasting talent.
new entries/mentions. alex's new embodiment as a north atlantic gale is as mentioned about to cross the u.k. and ireland, and i'm sure rich and james will keep us informed on exactly how significant the effects are.
low latitude system, low amplitude wave with a low/mid swirl located around the ITCZ. seems to be moving just north of west, but racing. shear environment ahead looks good for a couple of days, but it has to separate and decelerate before it can do much.
gulf low.. should just hang for a while. environment not great, but this sucker could occlude and switch teams. time is on it's side. it might take days, but already some models have suggested significant cyclogenesis in the area.
nothing imminent or terribly impressive right now. quiet sabbath on this side of the atlantic, stormy on the other.
HF 2311z07august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 07 2004 07:11 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: dunce cap [Re: HanKFranK]
      #18016 - Sat Aug 07 2004 07:14 PM

>>> varmint was dancing to another drummer. apparently being a moderator doesn't beget any new forecasting talent.

Or in my case, any forecasting talent a'tall.

Think the GOM needs to be watched, something could be trying to get going south of pensacola. 92L appeared to be really getting it going earlier today...just too much dry air and sheer. Couple of other waves, HF touched on them, probably just meander along. I think we're gonna be quiet for a week-10 days while the basin prepares to release more heat a la Alex, this time from a CV wave.

Varmint's been missing for almost 48 hours...now I don't know what's going to happen

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
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Re: Quiet for Awhile [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #18017 - Sat Aug 07 2004 08:24 PM

Ed if your right about your cordinates for 91L then it looks like we might have some regeneration going on.How long and how intense remains to be seen.I personally was about to peg it further N some.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Regeneration [Re: javlin]
      #18019 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:40 PM

Good observation javlin. Indeed 91L seems to once again be on the upswing. At 08/01Z a weak circulation center is near 18.2N 81.9W. Movement is to the west northwest, however if the convection can hold, the movement should become more northwesterly toward the Yucatan Channel. The system is entering an upper air environment that is more favorable for additional development. This one sure is tenacious.
Cheers,
ED


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Accuracy [Re: javlin]
      #18020 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:40 PM

As of 8pm, W Caribbean tropical wave...the remnants of T.D. Two...is along 82w S of 21n moving W 10-15 kt. Wave has weakened with a less pronounced wind shift than yesterday and an elongated appearance on satellite.

Check the accuracy in the storm forum. 4 of us were quite accurate with at least the location of TD2 for Saturday at 8p.m.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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SirCane
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Re: Accuracy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #18022 - Sat Aug 07 2004 10:33 PM

Former TD #2 seems to be firing up once again tonight !



--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Edited by SirCane (Sat Aug 07 2004 10:36 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: Accuracy [Re: SirCane]
      #18023 - Sat Aug 07 2004 10:40 PM

TD2/091L, some flaring up but looking at Pressures the in the area about 1014. But like Yogi Berra says "ain't over till it's over". Looks like going to hit Yuctan Peninsula.

Dave


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Quiet for Awhile [Re: javlin]
      #18025 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:02 PM

Haven't had a look at 91L yet. Though NHC is still feeding info to the models. 00Z (A98E-only) takes 91L to 21.9 and 92.0W in 72 hrs-8/10 00Z. SHIP and DSHP are split between 62 kts and 43kts respectively.
As for the Northern GMX, haven't checked all buoys, but this one caught my Eye. Steady pressure, building winds from the E. Last hour,02Z, sustaines at 28kts gusts to 34kts.
http://buoyweather.com/wxnav.jsp?region=FL&program=BuoyMet&zone=-5&buoy=42036

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 07 2004 11:26 PM)


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TropicsGuy
Unregistered




Re: New Invest 93L [Re: danielw]
      #18026 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:33 PM

Here's the numbers for the latest invest east of the windwards:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 080238
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932004) ON 20040808 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040808 0000 040808 1200 040809 0000 040809 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 44.7W 9.3N 48.0W 9.8N 51.4W 10.2N 54.8W
BAMM 8.7N 44.7W 9.2N 48.3W 9.8N 51.8W 10.4N 55.2W
A98E 8.7N 44.7W 8.8N 48.6W 9.2N 52.1W 9.9N 55.3W
LBAR 8.7N 44.7W 9.1N 48.7W 9.8N 53.0W 10.6N 57.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040810 0000 040811 0000 040812 0000 040813 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 58.0W 12.2N 63.7W 14.0N 68.8W 15.5N 73.7W
BAMM 11.3N 58.2W 13.5N 62.9W 16.0N 66.8W 17.9N 70.9W
A98E 10.4N 58.1W 12.2N 63.0W 13.9N 67.6W 16.3N 72.1W
LBAR 11.2N 61.4W 13.1N 67.6W 17.1N 70.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 44.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

TG


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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: Quiet for Awhile [Re: danielw]
      #18027 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:35 PM

Yea Dan it seems to be expanding quickly hard to tell if a rotation per say seems maybe a loose one.The wave looks impressive on the WV loop.I have to agree with Ed looks like a possible weakness in middle of the GOM.Not sure about the steering currents though.I just notice that seems to be seperation in the middle..
pressures 1011 in guito most other spots 1014>1018

Edited by javlin (Sat Aug 07 2004 11:46 PM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Accuracy [Re: SirCane]
      #18028 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:44 PM

Yes TD #2/Who has showed some spunk! That did try to catch my eye today but I focused possibly too much on the GOM area. May be a great call for all who did not dismiss it just yet. At least one of our local famous mets thinks it may be a rain maker north FL

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin
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Re: Accuracy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #18031 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:54 PM

Lately it looks to be moving in a more NW direction going to make it through YUC pass or just over the tip of Cuba.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Accuracy [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18032 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:55 PM

It is rather calm so what the heck!


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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Anonymous
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Re: Accuracy [Re: javlin]
      #18033 - Sat Aug 07 2004 11:58 PM

Looks to me going to hit Yuctan most of the wave is south, part of the wave is in Central America.

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javlin
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Re: Accuracy [Re: Anonymous]
      #18034 - Sun Aug 08 2004 12:10 AM

Correct but an ULL is still to the W pushing it NW depending on how fast it moves out it should hit the pass.

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Cycloneye
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Re: New Invest 93L [Re: TropicsGuy]
      #18036 - Sun Aug 08 2004 12:15 AM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Here is the invest 93L at the backup site of NRL.Moving fast now so it will take it's time to organize more but let's see what happens.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New Invest 93L [Re: Cycloneye]
      #18037 - Sun Aug 08 2004 12:21 AM

Why do they base their fcsts on 1800Z surface data?

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 07 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
POORLY-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 27W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED
ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS. THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE
WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED IN SURFACE DATA OR THE GFS
MODEL... THOUGH THE LATTER SHOWS WEAK TURNING AT 700 MB IN THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 8N-13N.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 NM E OF BARBADOS ALONG 42W/43W
S OF 16N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING WESTWARD
WITH A STRONG 700 MB JET TO THE N. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE WAVE HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED W-E ALONG 9N AND
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRRUS PATTERN. DRY AIR/AFRICAN DUST IS LOCATED
NEAR AND TO THE N BETWEEN 35W-50W... SOMEWHAT LIMITING TSTM
FORMATION. HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DOT THE WAVE FROM
10N-13.5N BETWEEN 45W-51W ENHANCED WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT MON WITH THE MAIN WAVE AXIS
CROSSING 60W AROUND MIDDAY MON.

TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. TSTMS BLEW UP NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE
IS NOT WELL-DEFINED BUT CAN BE SEEN IN HOVMOELLER PLOTS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12.5N E OF 65W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...IS ALONG
82W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS WEAKENED WITH A LESS
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT THAN YESTERDAY AND AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE
ON SATELLITE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LIKELY FOR THE
YUCATAN AND BELIZE LATE SUN INTO MON. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN W JAMAICA AND 82W.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0408072355


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Did TD 2 survive "Graveyard"? [Re: danielw]
      #18039 - Sun Aug 08 2004 12:57 AM

a reporting station located at 19.3N 81.3W .....reported a wind @ 000 at 0 mph at 11pm.....(noticed tstrm just passed on radar pics).. and 12hrs earlier at 11am reported winds @ 140 at 10mph..... according to reports....winds in last 6hrs have changed from due south to to due north and winds have picked up.... pressure has changed very little....

did the TD #2 survive the "graveyard"?.....
will be an interesting sunday morning if she holds til sunrise..... NHC didn't even mention in there outlook.....
looks like cancun will see a lot of rain sunday/monday


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James88
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Re: Did TD 2 survive "Graveyard"? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18041 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:07 AM

The former TD #2 still has quite a good presentation on satellite this morning. Maybe it will get a mention in the next TWO. We also have the another wave to watch - the one approaching the Caribbean. It could be an interesting day.

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