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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Frank P
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18063 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:32 AM

Yeah Cuban radar doesn't show much convection with this system, but that's was also apparent on the IR pixs too.... Bottom line, at least we have a "weak" circulation at the mid levels, moving toward the GOM, which might be able to support a developing system better than what the NW Car had to offer the past day or so.... still need to get the convection, and get the Mid level down to the surface, but we all know how these things can pulse, it just needs to get kick started, maybe this will be initiated in the GOM, maybe not. I'm just not ready to put a fork in it quite yet... but its not a sure thing by no stretch of the imagination....

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LoisCane
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: Frank P]
      #18064 - Sun Aug 08 2004 12:14 PM

its okay Frank.. it pulses better than my food processor..

its there, gone, comes back.. depends what hour you look at it

pouring in miami, sunshower pouring

so much tropical moisture and nothing will spin

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Frank P
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: LoisCane]
      #18066 - Sun Aug 08 2004 01:46 PM

Well Bobbie, this hour our ExTD2's pulse is on the increase, and it looks just a tad bit more organized than it did from earlier this morning. Evidence of the mid level circulation still apparent, and convection is on the increase the past hour or so in the southern quadrant. I just hope to see it make it to the GOM without falling apart, which this old system tends to want to do after getting our interest every other day or so... my opinion is that the system is trying to develop a LLC and having a hard time getting the mid level circulation down to the surface at the moment, but its in the process of trying to make that happen, and its strugging, but if it does..... we will see our little TD back in the picture for the upcoming week... jury still on this one but at least its trying to make it interesting for us...

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Cycloneye
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93L will send bad weather to the islands [Re: LoisCane]
      #18067 - Sun Aug 08 2004 01:47 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

But will it be more than rain and some squalls or it will stay as it is now? Pressures are not falling at the islands so I guess that nothing will develop from there but the tropics has always surprises so I will be watching from PR.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Anonymous
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Re: 93L will send bad weather to the islands [Re: Cycloneye]
      #18068 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:25 PM

Looks like a low forming right over South Louisiana. Interesting. Troffy and hot today with grey skies but no rain.

TPS


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Frank P
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TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: Anonymous]
      #18069 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:09 PM

TWD at 2:05 indicates a weak LLC trying to form south of Cuba... I think I've been saying that this has been in the works for a little while myself... hehe

Convection also continues on the upswing.... for the moment


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Frank P
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91L invest back on NRL [Re: Frank P]
      #18070 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:13 PM

getting a little more interest from someone other than me I see...

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi


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teal61
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Another sign of the NHC's interest in XTD2... [Re: Frank P]
      #18071 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:13 PM

91L is back on the NRL site, FWIW

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Sorry Frank, you beat me to it. Also from the 2:05 TWD...

TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...CROSSING CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W/85W S OF 22N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE FRAGMENTING
OFF THE MAIN AXIS...MOVING NW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 82W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO EXTENDS FROM E
NICARAGUA SEWD TO W PANAMA. A FEW SHIPS S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
REPORTED SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURES RELATIVE TO THEIR SURROUNDINGS
AT 1200Z...WHICH MAY INDICATE THAT A WEAK SFC LOW IS TRYING TO
FORM ALONG THE TROF.

Edited by teal61 (Sun Aug 08 2004 03:17 PM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: Frank P]
      #18072 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:16 PM

Did you say anything about that It is really trying... maybe the next TWO will provide more and maybe the NRL will change it's screen! Frank P& Teal61... just saw that too late..Thanks!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 08 2004 03:19 PM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18073 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:22 PM

T1.0/1.0???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Frank P
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18074 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:22 PM

coop, this thing has had my interest all morning....

teal, glad to see you on top of it with me...

I'm off to the show for a late afternoon break from watching this thing basically all day... interesting to see what happens this evening... will the trend continue, or will it revert back to its old mode of dying off... Me thinks we might have an interesting player coming to the game this week... funny thing, you just never know do you...


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Anonymous
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Re: Cuba Radar [Re: Anonymous]
      #18075 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:29 PM

Cuba Radar wont show...but this 1 does ...cheers from Cancun http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

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James88
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: Frank P]
      #18076 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:33 PM

This system could finally be pulling itself together. If it does manage to remain intact, it will be entering an area with high pressure building up, very warm water and little to no shear. This is a system that needs to be watched, at least for now.

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Anonymous
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: James88]
      #18077 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:51 PM

Ok. I am not exactly the first (for example, the Navy beat me to it, followed by NHC, Phil, Steve, Coop, etc)., BUT, I'll be the first who said 91L was dead to say it----IT"SSSS BACCCCKKKK!

I logged on just to take a look, had that feeling....salt with my crow please, and a little picante..

Very interesting weather day here in the Bend...raining now, gone from cool and fresh this am (low here 66.5 degrees) to muggy, tropical....like something is in the works,,,,and that is the only possible fly in the ointment.

Will 91L make a go, or will a competing system in the NE Gulf spoil it's day??? TWT. Or, will the energy combine and we will have a REAL problem???

Yo, shout out to Jason K, you around???

sc


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javlin
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: Frank P]
      #18078 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:54 PM

Let's see if it holds together overnite if it does it's for real.the system is still being steared in part by the feature to it's W..This will move it for a while WNW and maybe W if it remains close enough to 91L.The next feature and I have not checked is there another frontal system coming?

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DroopGB31
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: javlin]
      #18080 - Sun Aug 08 2004 04:42 PM

Judging by some satellites I've looked at I'd say there is definetly a LLC out there, looks nice and even some banding becoming evident? I'd say this has a chance, if it doesnt do what others before it have done and totally fizzle after I say this. LOL Anyways, coldfront supposed to come down Weds/Thurs. time frame, So I dont know where it might go if it develops, If it gets stronger fast, look for a NW, more poleward type of motion, if it stays weak, WNW towards Mexico, is my best guess right now. Add the coldfront/trough in and it could be a pain like always to figure out. Anyone wanna take a guess or go out on a limb?

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Storm Cooper
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18081 - Sun Aug 08 2004 04:50 PM

I'm not going to try a guess just yet. It all adds up to at least a mess right now and I bet interesting local Wx newscasts tonight all along the Gulf coast

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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DroopGB31
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18082 - Sun Aug 08 2004 04:52 PM

Nevermind, I take that back. Im getting ahead of myself we dont even have a named system yet.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18083 - Sun Aug 08 2004 04:57 PM

RECON is on for Monday..... for now?

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin
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Re: TWD - weak surface low trying to develop south of Cuba [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18084 - Sun Aug 08 2004 05:11 PM

Droop notice the little circulation S of LA. might explain that sea breeze all day.It is really really easy to see on the visiable.I agree with our system further S you can see clouds at the surface coming in below the higher cloud tops.

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