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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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wxman007
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Frank P]
      #18131 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:20 PM

I don't know about value-added...with me you get what you pay for...lol.

This could be a Looooooong 10 days coming up.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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BillD
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Frank P]
      #18132 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:25 PM

Frank, it is worth seeing, I just wish I had an easy way to share it out. One of these days I will get a website up for at least this kind of thing, but that is just not a priority for me at this point.

Bill


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Frank P
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10:30 TWO TD2 Regeneration Possible in 24 hrs [Re: BillD]
      #18133 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:31 PM

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONSIST OF AN AREA OF
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY


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javlin
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Frank P]
      #18134 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:31 PM

The ULL to the W looks to be pulling out at a pretty good clip.As time goes by what shear that is occuring should subside.The system seems to be wrapping from the SW quadarant nicely.I have to agree Frank that until we have confirmation of a closed system and measurements the models are somewhat fallable.Alot of the models do not even initialize it correctly that is because we don't know if it is closed yet.

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Old Sailor
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: javlin]
      #18135 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:35 PM

That area were the low is located ( the low seems very small in size, or is it me? 10:30PM NHC no TD.

Dave


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Frank P
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: javlin]
      #18136 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:37 PM

Jav, from what I read from people who can view the cancun radar loops we definitely have a good midlevel circulation associated with this system.. .but radar is not going to see a LLC that far out due to the curvature of the earth and distance from the center to the radar in cancun...so the key question tonight is there an LLC? No LLC no TD.... no yet, maybe tomorrow

Bill also noted the radar presentation loop he put together is also rather impressive.... I think the critical factor to this thing going tropical is that it remains persistent overnight and tomorrow and then gets into the GOM... then it could get really interesting.....


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DroopGB31
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: javlin]
      #18137 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:39 PM

If you look at the IR loops from GHCC, It looks to me that the system is still under a bit of shearing from the NE. But more deep convection blew up over the supposed center, so its got a great shot if it can keep producing its own convection. To bad I have school tomorrow and wont be able to get to a computer for most of the day. Got football practice after school till 5. I really hate coming home and having to catch up with the 100+ post a day here. LOL Wish I could get this site on my cellphone. HAH Well back on topic, Hope ya'll have a great day of tracking tomorrow. Surprise me with something to track tomorrow eve. Cheers

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Frank P
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18138 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:40 PM

I agree with you Dave as it is a relatively small system at the moment and the NHC discusses that fact in their 8:05 tropical summary....

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javlin
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18139 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:42 PM

It's about half way or one third in BOC moving at a good clip to the W.If you want to see it entirely go to full basin view of the WV loop it shows up good then.
Looks like someone has had there on on Bobbi's little girl and it wasn't me.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/sat/gulf/ir/ir.html
30 frames got it off S2K

Edited by javlin (Sun Aug 08 2004 10:58 PM)


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BillD
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Frank P]
      #18140 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:45 PM

Good point Frank about the distance, I probably should have mentioned that in my earlier post. At even relatively short distances (20-30 miles) radar is "seeing" thousands of feet up, and that is not low level. We'll know a lot more in the morning when we can see some visible sat pix, and hopefully they won't cancel the recon

Bill


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andy1tom
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: wxman007]
      #18141 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:53 PM

jason all week you have been saying we will just have to wait and see about ole TD 2. you never gave up the ship on this one. what did you see that keep you thinking that way or was it a "feeling"

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wxman007
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: andy1tom]
      #18142 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:57 PM

The AVN....

Earlier this week the AVN had a solution which was very reasonable, which is almost exactly what has happened with it. On tough tracks, the AVN (GFS now) for all it's failings, has done me right. It was a bit of instinct, along with a lot of luck.

However, now the hard part begins.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: wxman007]
      #18143 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:34 PM

Great forecast @ 10pm JK! I wish you had gone into the models a little more but I do understand your logic behind that! This could turn out to be a real fun event

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LoisCane
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: wxman007]
      #18145 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:39 PM

okay, i watched the nice long loop
Im still unconvinced..

she/it did the cha cha across the yucatan passage going west pretty fast..

however...is there a real center?
sort of moves west..something looks funny as if it pulls ne and then swirls back down to the southwest back to main center..

sorry too tired to use proper language here, just telling you its very iffy.. looks like something but it does the twist funny

am i the only one that thinks something is odd about the way it moving? sort of shimmies more than moves

will see, planes going into it in the afternoon
sounds like they want to be SURE, really SURE after looking at the visibles before they tell the pilots to start their engines

wave east of island grabs your attention on a wide screen first but looks weak

will see
nite bobbi

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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wxman007
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18146 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:48 PM

It's sometimes hard to balance...if I were doing a weathercast for THIS crew, I could, and would, go really in depth...but the show was designed for the general populace, which doesn't understand modelling as well as you guys do, and I didn't want to incite panic or get a ton of nasty e-mails in my inbox!

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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HanKFranK
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91/93 [Re: wxman007]
      #18147 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:50 PM

a'ite, back to the vigil. 91L/former TD 2 has fairly well busted most of my earlier ideas.. saw the weak/west option with the globals and chose development over it back when the system was entering the caribbean. i've been burned by this one already and am hesitant to want to keep making development forecasts, but in response to it's newfound vigor i can't help but keep calling for it to be bonnie. low level jet is stronger to the south, conditions closer to optimal to the north.. which is conveniently where it seems to be headed (NW at least for now).
think that the northern section will be the part that closes off, and that it wont be getting much further to the west. not ready to develop a timetable, too much uncertainty without a definitive closed low.
93L away east has finally received token notice from ssd, with a too weak. there's an impressive amount of convection and evidence of outflow to the whole thunderstorm complex, but with it's high forward motion and unclear circulation, as well as it's trajectory (going to be very close to trinidad/SA tomorrow), going to play the current organization trend cautiously. speed is the main issue here.. environment is fine except for the deep layer flow ramrodding the whole thing westward. should slowly decelerate over the next couple of days.. so if it's still looking nice by tuesday morning it's development chances rise markably.
interested tonight.. there's a decent chance something will be active when i get off work tomorrow.
HF 0350z09august


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andy1tom
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18148 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:53 PM

hey coop... isn't it great to be here in pc and have jason to tell us what is going on in the tropics.. we are the envy of the board... btw jason make this stuff be gone i got plans this weekend

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: andy1tom]
      #18149 - Mon Aug 09 2004 12:13 AM

NOUS42 KNHC 082030 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
0430 PM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-071 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.............ADDED
FLIGHT ONE.....ADDED FLIGHT TWO......ADDED
A. 09/1800Z ..................A. 10/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A INVEST ....B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 09/1530Z ..................C. 10/0330Z
D. 23.0N 88.0W .............D. 24.0N 89.5W
E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2300Z ...E. 10/0430Z TO 10/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. .........F. SFC TO 10,000FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT. ............................ADDED


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Robert
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Re: Spin off melbourne [Re: andy1tom]
      #18150 - Mon Aug 09 2004 12:18 AM

well Who ever said they saw something off melbourne was probally right. I woke this morning to go check the beach, the forcast said there were suposed to be some knee to thigh high waves today. So as im walking up the board walk of wave land, PSL FL, the first beach i check in few, im think damn west winds its porbbaly going to be flat.....................
\ /
(o) (o)
^
{_____}

My mouth dropped after that face as 7ft Bombers are rolling in out of the NE. So I quickly went to the beach i would go to in that situatuion, and i got to surf some of the heaviest dense waves i think i have ever seen in florida many a people went home with broken boards, cuts, Gashes, grazes, and possibly one Cucusion i think thats the spelling when you slam your head into the reef. But any ways those waves came from something and when i checked the bouys origen was close to home within 250 miles of the coast. becuse no other bouys further away had wave that big excpet for the 20 and 120 mile bouy off the cape wich were NE all night while lake worth station was Sw all night.

Edited by Robert (Mon Aug 09 2004 12:28 AM)


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teal61
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Re: Interesting NHC 8:05pm discussion on exTD2 [Re: andy1tom]
      #18151 - Mon Aug 09 2004 12:25 AM Attachment (182 downloads)

Wow, it took a while to for me to get it but check out the picture of Cancun's radar that I attached. There may not be a LLC but the mid level center is pretty impressive.

Edited by teal61 (Mon Aug 09 2004 12:28 AM)


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