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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18173 - Mon Aug 09 2004 07:13 AM

This link is really good for keeping an eye on where the storms are in relation to the US and PR if you have as much trouble as I do with our position in the atlantic.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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LoisCane
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #18174 - Mon Aug 09 2004 07:28 AM

Last image or so on gulf loops shows a real round system that could be making that transition to defined system and not just a wave..

however lost its pretty red dress that it had earlier over what definitely seems a center of circulation, would like to see it find the red dress again and not wear yellow.. think the hurricane hunters would prefer to see her in red not yellow

but does look better

i disagree btw that there are no signs of development with that wave east of islands but for now will watch remnants of 2 try one more time to go for the gold medal, or at least silver

right now she hasn't even won the bronze

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Frank P
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: LoisCane]
      #18175 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:07 AM

The system has continue to improve with time since yesterday morning... storm2K had a great radar loop of the system going thru the yucatan channel... most impressive for a non named system... but still rather compact in size too

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071/Cancun.gif

Its satellite presentation is also rather impressive so far this morning for a non named system... we'll see pulsation of the convection throughout the day as it continues to progress... but from where it was two days ago, what a comeback... it's come quite a way in the past 24 hours... not there yet but sure is getting close

system appears to be moving due west the last hour or so... I'm not sure I can buy the west Florida event delineated by the GFDL....


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Frank P]
      #18176 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:10 AM

I think the GFDL is counting on the remnants of that cold front to be still retrograding north and pulling the TS/hurricane a long with it. However, we both know that big things tend to end up in Texas.(right) however, those catchy names like Betsy, Opal, Andrew, Kate, Fredrick, Erin, all come to mind.....

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Frank P
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #18177 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:18 AM

I don't argue with that but I also think the GFDL is factoring in another cold front that is due in the northern GOM by Thursday, and will shunt the system off to the NE, as fronts are expected to do.

The question that begs to be asked... where will it ultimately go the farther west it goes???... its already past west and south of where the GFDL had it initialized... so that model is crap... I'm not saying it will not go to Fl, I'm just saying the more it goes west, the more it could affect the models and where it ends up... and as we all know they will change with each passing update....


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James88
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Frank P]
      #18178 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:21 AM

The TWD says that shear in the area has increased overnight, which may produce a less favourable area for tropical cyclone formation. Of course systems can and do form in areas that are less than favourable. Any thoughts?

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javlin
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T # 2.0\2.0 [Re: Frank P]
      #18179 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:26 AM

They continue to go up 93L 1.0\1.0 now.Does it make it to the BOC and sit waiting for something to move it.I definitly thought it would be more N this morning.It needs to move out from land to develop fully.

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Frank P
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: James88]
      #18180 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:28 AM

I tell you what else bothers me about this system at the moment .... it is so very small.... it needs good upper air support for continued development and any shear will be quite hard on the little system... the latest radar pix I saw out of Cancun is NOT as impressive as last night... winds out of Cancun at the moment does not support a LLC with this system... unless the LLC is so small and far enough away from cancun not to have an impact there... but I doubt it... I'm not sure if it even really had an LLC... hard to say without recon...

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James88
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Frank P]
      #18181 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:32 AM

Storm floater 1 is now positioned over the Gulf, so we can keep a close eye on it. There is a rather intense blow up of convection currently occuring, so that will provide the red Bobbi was asking for.

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Anonymous
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Frank P]
      #18182 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:35 AM

go look at the first visible sat storm floater at NHC satelite photos and the picture looks like a small hurricane with an eye, just an illusion, but cool looking

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Frank P
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Frank P]
      #18183 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:35 AM

Latest IR loops still hints of the west movement.. maybe just north of due west... convection building up near the center again... it does not have much of a northerly component in the loop.. ...

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Old Sailor
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Frank P]
      #18184 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:41 AM

Latest IR looks to show maybe some shear maybe hurting it, last IR system gone down hill, and as you said all most due west, this morning it's acting like a strong wave.

Dave


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Anonymous
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18185 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:50 AM

I posted this earlier as an IR link. Sun is up and the TNRCC VIS shots can't be beat.
Here is the Gulf VIS latest. Updates hourly.
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GOES/GULF/vis30/latest.jpeg


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Anonymous
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Re: Bonnie???? [Re: James88]
      #18186 - Mon Aug 09 2004 08:51 AM

Morning all, I really am not here to distract from this forum,I find all of you very informative and have learned a great deal from visiting here. I am actually a member here as of last year(canman32) was my name,but I have lost my password to that name and have yet to reregister. I will soon.

Anyway,I live on the gulf coast (Crestview Florida) and have been thru many years of this stuff. I am too old to follow some of these models and maps you all bring up,although I do find them interesting and enjoy when you all talk about them and especially provide links to them.

I suppose what I am trying to say is sometimes a gut feeling is all you have,but even that gut feeling comes from experience from being thru this before. I by no means am saying I am always right,far from it actually. Its just that sometimes there are different ways to get to the same results.

My prediction is a long way from coming true,but I think it is coming closer and closer. It appears the time frame may be off,but I still feel TD 2 will be at the least a strong TD or a Cat 1 before it hits anywhere.

My earlier prediction ...............................

"If it survives thru Friday,I believe a strong tropical system,or maybe even a cat 1 Hurricane will be in the GOM this weekend.


Alabama/MIss could be in for a very wet beginning of next week.

Of course I have no explanation for this,just a gut feeling."

Thanks again for all the interesting reading and links,even an old fool like me can learn fsome of this new stuff.

I mostly read on here so please dont take my postings the wrong way,I only participate when I feel something may be coming close to my area,and wont be bothering you with anything other than my thoughts on potential storms.

Other tha nthis post that is

Hope you all have a good day and will be back this evening to see what we have in the gulf.

Thanks


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie? who knows? [Re: Anonymous]
      #18187 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:04 AM

Nice post canman32.
Seems NHC and everyone has aimed the birds to watch the Yucatan storm.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N86W ALONG
THE SURFACE TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO 25N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RADAR
IMAGES FROM CANCUN MEXICO SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS 6 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N87W.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM E OF BARBADOS
ALONG 56W/57W S OF 18N MOVING W 20-25 KT...WITH A 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD AND S LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS WAVE/LOW IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WHICH IS PRODUCING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 54W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N FROM E OF 66W TO
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON AUG 9 2004
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
9/1215 UTC 21.7N 87.3W 300/10 6.0 IN 4.3 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.5 TO 4.1 IN 0.6 TO 4.3 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.1 TO 0.9 IN 0.0 TO 1.1 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.8 IN 0.0 TO 0.7 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.0 IN


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: TX, LA,MS AL,FL heads up [Re: danielw]
      #18188 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:10 AM

WHXX01 KWBC 091251
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20040809 1200 UTC
link good for 6 to 11 hours only!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR&version=1

Main link for all storms. NOTE the Time Of Issuance. The latest update is the lowest number. Storm numbers are AL912004 and AL932004.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR


Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 09 2004 09:13 AM)


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: TX, LA,MS AL,FL heads up [Re: danielw]
      #18189 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:32 AM

And complicating things a low HAS formed over S. la.....not sure what this means for future Bonnie...or even if, IT might be future Bonnie???

sc

Edited by summercyclone (Mon Aug 09 2004 09:33 AM)


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WeatherNLU
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Re: Bonnie? who knows? [Re: danielw]
      #18190 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:41 AM

Well I got a couple hours of sleep and awake to what still presentation wise looks like a Tropical Storm. I agree that it is a very small system and may have some trouble in that regard, but it looks like it is trying to fight through that with some decent convection trying to re-fire right now. I guess I was a little excited at 4AM so I am trying to reel that in, but still I think we have a developing T.S. on our hands.

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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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jth
Storm Tracker


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link to current conditions in Barbados [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #18191 - Mon Aug 09 2004 09:45 AM

Does anyone have a link for this? While I do beleive that bonnie will form today, I do not beleive it will be in the Gulf. We may yet get a storm in the gulf, but I think it will come tonight or tomorrow. The system in the islands today has the set up (if it can get north of S America) to be a historic storm. Just a thought.

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bobbi
Unregistered




agree in ways on system before islands [Re: jth]
      #18192 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:02 AM

IF that could pull itself together..has potential to be a really big system. Has a beautiful look on visible and ir and everyone is drooling over the small yucatan system that isnt showing low level circulation yet from nearby weather obs

Do think it will regenerate mind you but can't believe people around here would rather obsess endlessly over the remnants of TD 2 and totally ignore the wave going into the islands. Do we have to wait for it to be TD3 and have it fall apart for people to root for it to come alive again?

hmmn?


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