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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: unpredictble [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18425 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:30 PM

Well, Just as I thought. A large blow-up is occuring over the center of TS Bonnie. Looks to expand the CDO a bit and possibly cause some intensifying. Steve Lyons said earlier she could be a hurricane later on tonight. If this blow up continues and wraps in with the center, the pressure will lower and we could possibly have a hurricane tomorrow morning. As for the track, the longer it moves west, or NW the better the chance of landfall near SE LA, Miss, Al. If it changes direction faster, on a more Northerly course, look for somewhere near Destin/FWB, too Panama City. Thats my best guess for now. Goodnight Ya'll

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Rasvar
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Re: Models [Re: Clark]
      #18426 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:33 PM

I would not worry about the GFDL this far out on TD3. I think Bonnie is going to be the more immediate concern. GFDL has a bad habit of blowing up a still unformed storm to cat 3. Cuba always seems to take a little more out of a system then what the GFDL takes into account, IMHO. I'm not sold on those dynamics for it curving so rapidly. If anything, I think the system that is suppose to cause this turn will not arrive as early as predicted. The models have seen to be a little agressive on moving troughs in and seem to back off that after a few days.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: unpredictble [Re: SirCane]
      #18427 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:34 PM

Some models differ but most are becoming fairly tight in direction and I don't see a reason to dispute the NHC track at this time. Everyone along the GC needs to watch this and if the NHC track holds true as of now Panama City looks to get the most she may have. The track in the end very Opal like.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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andy1tom
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Re: unpredictble [Re: DroopGB31]
      #18428 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:35 PM

does anyone have any info on the front that is suppose to turn bonnie to north east? is it a strong front and is it still coming south east as predicted?

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Storm Cooper
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Re: unpredictble [Re: andy1tom]
      #18429 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:38 PM

As far as I know the front is still on track and reflected by the NHC forecast track.. but as always this could change.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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SirCane
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Re: unpredictble [Re: andy1tom]
      #18430 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:42 PM

She sure is a small storm! I'm sure as she continues to organize, she'll gradually get bigger.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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Re: Models [Re: Rasvar]
      #18431 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:43 PM

TD#3 is looking more healthy but it is a long way out...

I don't get the feeling that Bonnie will do an Opal, too early in the season, but I guess the morning will tell alot. I guess the pressures were falling earlier in the afternoon, but it could just as easily fizzle.

Wasn't NHC going to be using a new intensity forecast model this year?


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andy1tom
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Re: Models [Re: BabyCat]
      #18432 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:49 PM

remember what alex did though.. it was just suppose to be a weak storm also. if that thing had been a direct hit instead of a graze it would have caused major damage

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Models [Re: andy1tom]
      #18434 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:56 PM

I was just reading the latest update that just came out and it says Bonnie is moving to the NW at 6 mph. I lookes at all the sat. pics and to me it looks like moving almost due west :?:

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BabyCat
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Re: Models [Re: andy1tom]
      #18435 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:56 PM

Hurricanes are fascinating....until you are under the gun.

Stay safe


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie [Re: andy1tom]
      #18436 - Mon Aug 09 2004 10:59 PM

Dr Lyons just said Bonnie had cloud tops in the minus 100C area. He said that was nearly 60,000 ft. Gulfstream5 turf!
This one needs an overnite watch!
0254Z

NEW track fcsts from 00Z are available here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR&version=0


Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 09 2004 11:02 PM)


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BabyCat
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Re: Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #18438 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:01 PM



AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BONNIE IS RATHER SMALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO ONLY 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


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going out on a limb here... [Re: danielw]
      #18439 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:02 PM

Bonnie will be a 75 mph hurricane in 72 hours at landfall
TD3 will be Charley tomorrow, and will be a 115 mph hurricane in 4-5 days and hit Cuba
Low off of Florida will be a Subtropical storm Wednesday

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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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Clark
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Re: Models [Re: Rasvar]
      #18441 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:15 PM

Rasvar - I definitely agree. I remember the days when the GFDL was the greatest thing around; then, a couple of years back, they tinkered with it and it's never been the same. It's still the best purely tropical model, however, and never too early to start preparing. But, that said, track errors (yet alone intensity errors) are so large at 5 days that the model is almost not worth looking at.

A note on TD #3 - over the past few hours, there has been a flare up in convection near where the LLC should be, even accounting for a slight reformation a bit to the north. After the convection died away earlier today, a band began to develop on the west side (just before 8p ET), worked it's way to the south (~9p), and now has consolidated around the center. If it only slowed down a bit, we'd have something; even still, it's slowly getting it's act together. The outflow appears to be very good in almost all quadrants and waters are certainly warm enough.

As a couple of quick, related asides - it's interesting how every person you ask has a different "feel" on a storm. I've heard a wide range on TD #3, both here and in person with people and around here, ranging from Allen to Gilbert to Lily and a few others. Heard the same with Bonnie, too. It's likely these two storms will be the first Bonnie/Charley and not the next anything, but it's interesting where some of the comparisons are drawn from.

And, I'm not sure if anyone else caught it earlier, but seeing Steve Lyons try to explain the four-quadrant jet model (from quasigeostrophic theory, favored regions for synoptic-scale ascent and descent) in layman's terms was rather interesting. I'm not sure that it's terribly relevant with TD #3, however - the "jet" he showed only had a magnitude of 20mph at it's strongest and it's more dry air ahead of the storm (albeit retrograding) that will impact the storm as opposed to rising/sinking motion.

Definitely a couple of things to watch for now, though.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: going out on a limb here... [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18442 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:16 PM

Bonnie looks to be moving almost due west right now, although the NHC says moving nrthwest? Which is it

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Models [Re: Clark]
      #18443 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:19 PM

I have to admit, I keep wanting to call them Bonnie and Clyde. Neither one is up to any good!

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HanKFranK
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11pm adv/commentary [Re: danielw]
      #18444 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:25 PM

reading over the 11pm stuff, just a couple of thoughts. watched bonnie's puffing but locally intense convection, still think the house of cards idea applies, but since the system is slowing to a crawl and over the high heat content of the gulf.. once it starts intensifying i expect it to do so prodigiously. if you care to opine on where you think bonnie will end up, head over to the forum and drop a post on the t.d. 2 forecast.. and take a moment to note how remarkably bad and remarkably good some of the forecast ideas were from last week.
t.d. 3.. one change of note. the system appears to be consolidating. of course there is uncertainty... the system is racing along, and no recon or reporting stations can fix the center (assuming it isn't deciding to open up into a speed wave). but then, the banding convection from earlier has decayed, while a core of convection has formed near the old convection center.. appears to be a CDO. not sure on the recon schedule, too lazy to check.. but if this is the start of a trend then we'll see Charley by Dvorak rating and not direct recon.
elsewhere in the basin.. weak lows on the old front need a watchful eye north and east of bonnie. the east atlantic doesn't have anything terribly suspect, but the sluggish look of the trades near the ITCZ and retrograding upper lows peeling back under the ridge tell me that waves that happen by will find opportunities a couple days past dakar.
aside from that, quick note of reinforcement to ed's earlier comment.. stay on topic. the board is going to get morey active/crazy if significant strengthening takes place in the gulf and/or caribbean. none of the moderators here really like to have to run around taking down posts--the less we have to do, the more fun the board will be for everyone.
HF 0325z10august


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Models [Re: Clark]
      #18445 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:27 PM

But, since it may be slightly relevant, I'll go into a bit of detail on that jet model and why the Western Caribbean may be more favorable for development for T.D. #3 for yet another reason other than the fast forward movement of the storm.

Essentially, what you have in the Central Caribbean is a low-level easterly jet, with winds about 20mph in low levels moving from east to west. At the low levels, you want converging air for rising motion - as the air comes together, it rises - with corresponding diverging air at the upper levels. Note that the upper-level jet is the more common model of the two, but the low-level jet is the one Dr. Lyons discussed and is thus the one I'm talking about as well.

The simplified equations of motion, which I will spare you all from, say that if you go from a region of lower winds into a region of higher winds as you move to the west, there must be a transverse wind to compensate going from north to south. Thus, you have winds diverging in the north and converging in the south. Similarly, on the western end of the jet, going from a region of higher winds to lower winds, you must get a transverse wind (called an ageostrophic circulation in both cases) going from south to north. This creates divergence on the south side and convergence on the north side of the jet axis.

So, here, picture the NW Caribbean and SE Caribbean favored for rising motion - at least at the low levels - and the NE and SW Caribbean favored for sinking motion (again, at least at the low levels). Thus, the so-called four quadrant model. But, there is an important consideration to take into account - curvature. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts are enhanced in the northern half of the jet and diminished in the southern half. To some degree - and for simplicity to the general public, what Dr. Lyons did on TWC - you can just consider the impacts of the northern half.

What this leaves you with is a region favored for synoptic-scale (~1000km length-wise scale) descent in the eastern/central Caribbean and a region favored for synoptic-scale ascent in the western/central Caribbean. Again, I should note that this is just one piece to the puzzle - the low levels - and that the broader picture of upper-level flow and many other non-related (and some related) factors must be considered. Also, it's not something you generally see applied to the tropics - it is more of an idealized midlatitude theory - though it does have some application in the tropics. But, as one piece of the puzzle, it is one that can be useful for gaining *some* insight into the picture.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: going out on a limb here... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18446 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:28 PM

Our local met and fellow board member(JK) noted that mvt also @10 tonight .... just a "jog" as systems will do I think. I would stick w/ the NHC track and watch close.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Aug 09 2004 11:39 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: going out on a limb here... [Re: Anonymous]
      #18447 - Mon Aug 09 2004 11:30 PM

The two advisories available on Bonnie have a north component of 0.2 degrees and a westerly component of 0.5 degrees; essentially, a WNW motion over about 6 hrs. However, the forward speed has dropped greatly, suggesting that any direction of movement, for the time being, may not be terribly relevant. It'll make a difference of a few miles at landfall, but nothing that can be accounted for this far out. Things are happening as predicted, it seems, though the NW movement has been roughly more WNW than NW recently.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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