wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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This was what I was worried about...we COULD be seeing the beginning of rapid intensifcation.
Can Bonnie get to Cat 3? Yes. Will it? Maybe. Will it be at landfall? Doubtful...the end of the track will be marked with some significant SW shear at landfall, so Bonnie may weaken a bit right before landfall. BUT...
If you live on the Northern Gulf Coast, take this very seriously. Finish your preparations as soon as possible. Even if Bonnie falls apart, we still have to deal with possibly in 5 days.
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Jason Kelley
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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latest models trend off the east coast. Do you think this is an error that will correct itself with the new data?
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Alex L
Unregistered
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it looks like the LLCC is running away from the convection lookls like its heading NNE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 102001
97779 20014 31237 91608 15400 30023 17169 /2527 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 13
URNT11 KNHC 102019
97779 20194 30140 71700 03500 08018 24233 /0007 40615
RMK AF966 0103A OB 17
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James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Bonnie is down to 45kts in this advisory, but it is still forecast to become a 70kt hurricane before landfall.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I remember Opal getting up there in intensity just to be weakened by SW sheer and dropped in intensity before landfall.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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We NEED the G-IV data before I start believing anything that the models say about ...I'll reserve comment until then.
However, the is looking really good right now with Bonnie...Your Mileage May Vary....
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Jason Kelley
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I have faith in the models only within 48 hours of targeted landfall but I always have faith in guys like you, Jason from the getgo!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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I don't want to downplay this system but I do remember a similar scenario when the tropical storm was speeding along the carribean and suppose to be a hurricane and ended up an open wave. If Charlie doesn't slow down soon the same scenario could happen.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for posting on these boards JK.
Quiet time and joke time are over. Listen to what JK says, he's the pro.
Most of you guys/gals have made great posts and kept on topic. That will make my job easier and Ed's and HF's too. For the most part the anons made good posts too, though there are a couple who made EXCELLENT posts -- wish they'd id themselves in some way.
We have a potentially very serious 48-72 hours ahead, so heed the preparation advice and know your evac routes. Let's hope that's not necessary (although I know a few on this board would welcome a CAT III in their backyard...most of us wouldn't).
Keep up the great posts folks 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 102026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2026Z
B. 24 DEG 35 MIN N
90 DEG 34 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1455 M
D. 25 KT
E. 241 DEG 17 NM
F. 324 DEG 34 KT
G. 246 DEG 014 NM
H. 1003 MB
I. 18 C/ 1543 M
J. 24 C/ 1535 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT14 KNHC 102034
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01160 10718 10010 12622 07039
02158 20716 20008 22523 06036
03156 30714 30008 32523 05034
04155 40712 40007 42623 04033
05152 50710 50007 52422 04030
06151 60707 60006 62323 36029
MF159 M0717 MF042
OBS 01 AT 1915Z
OBS 06 AT 1942Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 06035
01150 10707 10005 12323 32012
02148 20708 20006 22422 99005
03146 30710 30008 32523 06010
04145 40712 40008 42522 05015
05143 50714 50009 52423 06015
06141 60716 60008 62522 07019
07140 70717 70007 72423 09021
MF140 M0717 MF021
OBS 01 AT 1954Z
OBS 07 AT 2019Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 06015
RMK AF966 0103A OB 18
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James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Charley is up to 45kts. I thought he looked weaker. Satellite appearance really isn't everything with these systems.
Edited by James88 (Wed Aug 11 2004 08:01 AM)
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
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Does anyone have any recon info lately on the size of the eye on Bonnie? In my opinion, this small 10 mile dia. eye (if it still is)...would seem to play a role in how compact and fast the winds can get. I say this because Andrew was a little buzz-saw. Not large in overall size, but packed a wallop....you know....a category 4 by the hurricane center, that was later upgraded to a 5....
This small eye on Bonnie...has NEVER happened before in this particular stage of development...which lends me to wonder....
any comments? ideas?......
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mikeG
Unregistered
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NOTICE DATA IN AT 15.9 71.7 42 KTS?
MF159 M0717 MF042
OBS 01 AT 1915Z
OBS 06 AT 1942Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 06035
MF140 M0717 MF021
OBS 01 AT 1954Z
OBS 07 AT 2019Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 06015
RMK AF966 0103A OB 18
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/05. THE LAST RECON POSITIONS
INDICATE BONNIE HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTH THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SUBSEQUENT
SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THIS MOTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT
EAST OF DUE NORTH MOTION. THIS NEW MOTION IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN EXTENSION AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BONNIE
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24-30
HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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rickonboat - the last 4 vortex messages from Bonnie no longer indicate an eye feature, leading me to believe that it was more of a transient feature yesterday than something signaling a period of intense strengthening to come. It could still happen, but I don't think it'll be quick.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Looks like that NOAA has switched GOES-12 into rapid scan mode for Bonnie...getting some good imagery right now...
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Jason Kelley
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Sorry to post on a Bonnie thread, but is collapsing!! Not looking too organized at the moment....looking ill in fact. Maybe he found out he was going to Florida and didn't want to pay the impact fee!! 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Interesting that the winds are down, but the pressure is down as well...some real conflicting signals there...interesting stuff going on...
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Jason Kelley
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