MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The 11PM Advisory out and it shifts the track slightly left, GFL is what the hurricane center is favoring now. One disturbing trend is that the models slow the forward speed of the storm as it approaches the Florida coastline. However, the more southerly and Carolina tracks are still not ruled out, this time tomorrow evening we should have a better handle, that is if models and other aspects behave. Still more to come later.
This graphic (Thanks ) represents the possible wind swath of Hurricane Force winds based on the current wind profile and current track over Central Florida as of 11PM Tuesday. The main point of this is to show that is a larger system than was (as far as diameter and windfield) and if the track holds could cause a wider area to see hurricane force winds.
My best guestimate for landfall as of now is the range between just south of West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. This could change.
has trended back left with the models and we'll be updating more later tonight.
New graphic Model plots animated over time to help see trends. Source images are from the South Florida Water managmenet District webpage.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane startiing tomorrow night at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the new thread, Mike. I'll herd them over here...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HurriK
Unregistered
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is it me or does the ULL of the keys/cuba appear to be weakening? if so will this allow for a more west track?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I pray for the inhabitants of the Bahamas...this is a Floyd redux (not to say this takes the path of Floyd). This could reach CAT V strength and then it's more than likely on to Northern FL for a direct hit. More prayers go out there. Tomorrow will be the crucial day in terms of landfall ideas. Everyone get some good rest tonight and tomorrow...Thursday and Friday will pose some sleepless nights for A LOT of people.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The ULL seems to be taking a pounding right now looks to be weakening for sure.This I would think if the ULL gets dissolved lead to a more W track in the long term.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Edited by javlin (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:38 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Well, the new (00z) Eta is a breath of fresh air...pulling up almost immediately and out to sea in less than 48hrs...too bad it doesn't look realistic..
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:40 PM)
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Here's the latest spaghetti - lookin bad for Florida
http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
-yeah, the only deviant on the map
Edited by ShaggyDude (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:42 PM)
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BillD
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Earlier I used the technical word "squashed". I think the ULL is on its way out (JK/007 mentioned this possiblity last night), and this will allow to continue westward uninhibited. But will still move poleward when and where the ridge breaks down. The ULL was an interesting diversion, but the status of the ridge and what impact the approaching trough has will make all the difference.
Bill
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BillD
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I don't know about that, there are some key players there that have moved right and east. This looks better than the 18Z that had them all bunched up between WPB and MLB.
Bill
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Latest discussion, brilliantly done and very scary - and, by stewart i might add
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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also, forecast track continues slightly southward towards vero beach again
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_5day.html
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I concur...Mr Stewart really delivered tonight...this is a brilliant piece of writing...
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Jason Kelley
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Anyone have any trouble getting on Storm2k tonight? Im not a member just a lurker, I find this a better site to post at. But anyways, everytime I've gone there today it tells me to log in. Have they closed the site to lurkers due to a overload of people?
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The man is the bomb. Although, I don't think have ever given three such divergent possible end game scenarios...SC/Central FL/GOM. It almost appears my crow munching forecast for hattaras might have a last breath of air...tomorrow's the day, people, tomorrow's the day...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Add my name to the Stewart fan club list. Well written and concise discussion, with explanations. But what he is describing is not going to help me sleep tonight.
Bill
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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i agree my friends, his ominous discussion brings many more questions than answers, but tomorrow will shall see so much more - good luck to all
hopefully, we will have an optimistic chat tomorrow, though... (sigh)... we shall see
peace to all of you, and good luck once again
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sullynole
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I thought the Stewart fan club might enjoy this... http://www.hurricaneville.com/stewart_interview.html
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Exactly Bill....i was afraid of that scenario he described....that makes me VERY concerned now...tomorrow is probably going to give us even more questions considering the possible slow down and shift later in the northern bahamas
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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I agree, awesome write-up.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Jason, I have a question for ya. I know your probably busy but what are your thoughts about where she'll landfall? Im really begining to think S Fl to C Fl. Also are you concerned about maybe a second landfall on the gulf coast? I dont understand how will turn due north once it makes landfall according to the 11pm Track map. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated. Thanks
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