Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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OK, so TD 4 is now TS Dolly, the 4th system of the season thus far!
Not looked at much about her yet, but i am betting on a continuing WNW motion with a jog to the NW before resuming a more WNW motion in a few days time.
Also of note is the system persisting in the SW Caribbean. Some outflow and rotation, and we may see our 5th system here soon!
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Posting this, cause well the opening comment by Avila just makes it worthwhile.
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002
THE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL
ESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER
AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
DOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR
WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GLOBAL
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE
QUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR
THE MODEL NEXT RUN.
IF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 9.8N 32.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 9.9N 34.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 10.0N 37.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 31/0600Z 10.5N 39.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 31/1800Z 11.0N 41.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 01/1800Z 12.0N 45.0W 50 KTS
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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dolly is a weak system for now. if it doesnt increase in strength a whole lot, it should just continue west. keep in mind that if it does strengthen and begin to turn more NW, it will run into shear, weaken, turn back to the west. what i'm saying is, have fun getting this one to recurve early.
93L.. interesting that it still persists. it's been firing and refiring all week if i'm not mistaken. now there is a clear turning in the surface windfield, maybe a closed low. shallow layer flow is straight in to central america, but this one seems to be forming from persistent deep convection.. probably get steered more NW with the deep flow if it can get going... just force the inflow upward and get some violent convection going. thats if it can get any inner-core structure together in the short term. shear prospects arent great though.
the combination of a tropical wave nearing florida and existing surface trough in the central gulf might kick off enough convergence to.. you guessed it. surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area for a few days, just have to wait-see what goes down.
BOC.. bill... dont see that doing anything. shear and the fact its an extension of eastpac weather.
system east of florida, from an old trade wind disturbance that has been drifting wsw for days.. around 25/65 now. surface windfield has buckled around the convection some.. shear is bad just behind it.. but maybe supporting convection ahead of it. the upper Low chasing it wont follow it forever. various models are tracking this as a disturbance up to the carolinas. form it or not, they could use the rain.
wave at 53w or so looks fairly perky under all that shear. maybe a bother in a few days.
my fish spinner candidate, just like the one a week ago, refuses to do much. it is retrograding at 40N though.. not something you see everyday.
that is a mouthful, and quite enough. i've been posting on the last thread all day wondering why no one else was. my lovely computer doesnt want to refresh pages, it seems.. so i killed the store page feature.. hope that deals with it.
fin.
HF 2106z29august
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Dolly: Has anyone noticed the tone between the first advisory and the second one? Notice how much more uncertain advisory 2 sounds than 1...but yet it strengthens Dolly more than the first advisory. Dolly may try to recurve, but more than likely will turn back west. This is not an instant fish and nor do I think it will be. What boggles me is that is actually favoring some of the global models right now, but at the same time, the manner in which the globals initialized and have handled this system has been horrible.
93L: This one may try to develop slowly over the next couple of days. It should track NW towards the Yucatan Peninsula. If it develops, things could get interesting after the Yucatan.
Thoughts and comments needed on the model troubles with Dolly.
Kevin 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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As far as models in the deep tropics, I don't trust them until you can actually get some samples from recon...the init is a series of assumptions until you get some interior obs...I'd take all the guidance with a grain of salt at this point.
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Jason Kelley
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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So, it appears that we will be on our own for the the next couple of days because the only things we have to turn to is the crappy model guidence. BTW, what are your thougths (or guesses, as early as it is in the game) on the future of Dolly? How about 93L?
Kevin
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Models at this point are a grain of salt because of the poor data from that area.We have to wait a couple of days to then see more data going in to the computers and also as it gets more close to the islands but it is still early to say that the islands will be affected by Dolly.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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brew
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I will take a guess at Dolly. I say cat3 between Sebastian and Cocca, Melbourne as a hot spot. Worst case I am wrong and it won't be the last time.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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latest dolly discussion thinks along the lines of more west than wnw. also seems to think it may be able to strengthen a bit more and faster than earlier discussions.
she does look nice...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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oops that was me, troy, with above post
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troy
Unregistered
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looks like the train may start rollin.
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200208300000AI3_g.jpg
troy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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BOOM!
"I hear my train a comin'" - Hendrix Version
"Train kepta rollin' all night long" - Aerosmith version
"The train it won't stop rollin' no it cou'nt slow down" - Jetrho Tull
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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"drivin that train..." Hunter/Garcia
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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there will be some monsters comin off africa, cape verde season will not be slow. also why are some sayin el nino is strong saw some sat. photos today, and its weak looking. dolly will become major hurricane down the road.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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new model runs don't have dolly trying to lift north so much.. which goes in line with what i had in mind. i know they keep mentioning that it could intensify quickly.. but here's my take: at such a low latitude, the rate of strengthening will be below the climatological rate. how far north dolly does drift off its westward movement axis will have huge implications for its future. if it stays at low latitude, it can plow into the caribbean late next week, no problem.. but if it drifts north, it will probably miss the islands north as a much weaker system. since it would be about 8-12 days away from possibly reaching the u.s., dont have any real opinion on it at this point.
closer to home there are three areas among which at least one tropical system should emerge.
first is 93L down in the SW caribbean. convection died overnight yet again, but every day when it comes back it looks more and more ominous. there seems to be a broad surface low down there which has a fair chance of developing if it can start sustaining convection.
the system east of the bahamas is now around 25/68, moving w to wnw. convection keeps refiring overnight and the IR2 pics are confirming earlier visibles suggesting that the trades are buckling around the disturbance. this could end up in north or south carolina in a couple of days as a tropical system, but probably a weak one if at all.
the other area of interest is the central gulf. there is a broad SFC low centered near 25/89 that seems to be drifting sw now. convection from the day has gone from sparse to nil, but when it comes back tomorrow it could get the feedback mechanism going and represents yet another tropical cyclone development threat.
other things down the road.. the big low east of bermuda which is causing the nasty shear jet that is waiting for dolly if it goes north.. is forecast by some models to be the focal area for future development. an amplification out near 50w and a tropical wave seem to be involved in this. i only saw late runs showing this, so it may be crap.
westpac.. genevieve is about out of steam, fausto is over marginal waters north of hawaii and may be reforming, ele is getting very strong near the dateline. disturbance 92E south of mexico will probably end up as hernan and harrass the riviera or baja over the weekend.
westpac typhoons are going up near and south of japan.. this teleconnects to atlantic storms threatening the east coast.. doesnt bode well for the u.s. if anything gets through.
HF tallahassee, fl 0452z30august
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Things have gotton off to early start:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn ought to appreciate this - but don't get yer hopes up too high. Nearly every model on the potential genesis site develops a low which moves into the central TX coast at the end of the run period. Early indications are that it would be at most a Tropical Storm, but could bring some 5-8" rainfall if it plays out. It will either be the E or F storm if it develops. Now where does it come from?
a) SW Caribbean?
b) surface low in Central GOM?
c) wave in eastern Gulf?
d) something lifting out of Boc?
e) Combination of SOME of the Above?
I'm not that good. But when 5 or 6 models show you something similar, it's at least a 40/60 bet that something is going to happen. Could it be further SW or NE? That's anyone's guess, but the idea is out there.
Steve
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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As time goes by Dolly has continued to get better organized and hurricane status is more likely now.The track still on a general west one will bring Dolly more closer to the islands and be a real threat.The shear is not that strong and tracking on low latituds it will evade the more strong shear to the north.From here in Puerto Rico I am definitly watching all what is going on with Dolly but still is a bit early to say that we here will have a landfall.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ne one notice that convection complex. its been there scence last night and it has not deminished at all. On sat loops it appeer there might be a circulation forming. We could get another labor storm.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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The more advisories the puts out, the more they are leaning towards a WESTward track...not a WNW track. Now the models are split between the two tracks. I do not think that I would be so quick to call this one a "fishspinner". If it continues on this track, then Dolly will more than likely intensify as it will be in a more favorable environment than they thought it would be earlier. Also, as the has discussed, it stays ON this Westward track for the next 72 hours, it may just bring it closer to the US. All of this is up in the air as far as the models are; however, for right now all we have to do is LOOK at Dolly to see which direction she is headed. I think the models will be more important down the road as (and IF) she approaches any land areas. I just think it's too early for the models to really give an accurate track at this point.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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