tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Area
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The has been saying that it would either hit the eastern edge, or run just barely south of Jamaica for awhile now. Actually, in some ways going just south seems to be worse, since that would make a huge storm surge problem for the whole island. Either way, from the latest Tampa NWS discussion, it would appear it doesn't matter since the ridge appears to have stopped moving west. That seems to be making a panhandle strike more unlikely.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Its almost Friday evening and about 72-96 hours away from landfall due to uncertaincy in where abouts in the the state of florida it will make landfall.
This what I came up with so far now on . First off I dont have a 3 day landfall yet cause I think its still just over 3 days out but Ill give ya a spot where abouts. Looking at all the data that I can recieve from model trends, physics of dynamic layers of the atmosphere up to 60 levels, weather balloon data over the region, buoy reports, recon data, and water vapor data trends I will try to make this forcast up to 3 days out. I find very interesting that this is going to be very simular to but bigger in size and though slower movement then him,,faster then (but not by much). The expansion of the ridge off in the Bahamas has stoped. A trough coming off the Se U.S will help erode the western side of the ridge (though only some). In the first 60 hours expect a path over or very close to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands on Saturday evening then up NNW to N over Cuba on Sunday night. This is in agreement with the majority of the models but east of the as it doesnt recoginize the end of the western expansion of the bahama ridge. By Monday morning I see as a Cat 3 just sw of Key west moving N. By later in the day a N to maybe just NNE path will ensue as he goes along the western side of the ridge to its east based on the data I have seen right now. I dont expect a big quicker turn like the Tropical suites say and what did cause a stronger trough had was digging already into the Panhandle and N Florida making a obvious turn to the NE. Bonnie was the best insight of what was going to happen when she went more ENE showing the trough had already hit the Panhandle by then. So after 72 hours? Well its still uncertain on where exactly it will make landfall, but I dont see this going past 85W, infact maybe not 84W. Somewhere around 25N and 83-84W by later Monday afternoon. Movement should begin the NNE direction during the afternoon or night time hours. So landfall in Tampa? Sarasota? Cedar Key and Big Bend? well sure but that is at least 84 hours away or more if farther up the coast. Models we all look at will change from run to run so we cant say we are going with a certain model, just that model run at that z time. The has done well this year and so far with in the near terms. They will adjust postions with the data they recieve.
Anyways this should be a cat 3 when it makes landfall on the west coast of florida although a path closer to the big bend will be maybe down to a cat 2. There will be cooler waters from up near Tampa north and shear once it enters the gulf. One thing for sure that we all do know is that this will cause alot more wind and rain then did in a expanded area as this is alot bigger in size then . Also to note Miami to the keys and Naples isnt out of the woods yet. I do expect hurricane force winds in the southern Keys even if it does move on a path along 83-84W. Also Panama City- the Big Bend isnt out of the question yet since that is still 4-5 days out, especially the Big Bend. Anyways I will post more later and try to pinpoint a area of landfall on Saturday. scottsvb
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I agree the eye looks like it may go South of Jamaica.
this is a good thing for the Island.
I think this is just a wobble west due to reformation of the eye. If it is going to pass south of the island at this point, it would have to really be moving west. That would change the track entirely.
-------------------- Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Yeah, it could be an eyewall rebuild. However, I see it as a wwnw heading for certain. I may be wrong..(probably)...but we will know in a few more frames..about two hours from now oughta tell us what is happening....
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Scott, thanks for the forecast. Looking at the WV loops and the ridge/trough I can see where the has gotten its current track. If you extend the ridge southward it would "end" around 83W, right about the line where the has tracking north along. Also, remember when looking at WV loops, etc they aren't flat like tracking maps, instead they're more like a snapshot of the globe.
-------------------- Check the Surf
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Kingston in the South.... pass south... hit south..shirt south.... is very very very bad... so please don't make it seem that it will be good for the island.. as it stands right now... Jamaica is in very bad shape.
oh and btw.. the "mon" thing is getting to be annoying... (sorry i am from the caribbean and it just sounds hollywood fake)
-------------------- -----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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i agree.
Here is the extended forecast discussion link:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
Its almost Friday evening and about 72-96 hours away from landfall due to uncertaincy in where abouts in the the state of florida it will make landfall.
This what I came up with so far now on . First off I dont have a 3 day landfall yet cause I think its still just over 3 days out but Ill give ya a spot where abouts. Looking at all the data that I can recieve from model trends, physics of dynamic layers of the atmosphere up to 60 levels, weather balloon data over the region, buoy reports, recon data, and water vapor data trends I will try to make this forcast up to 3 days out. I find very interesting that this is going to be very simular to but bigger in size and though slower movement then him,,faster then (but not by much). The expansion of the ridge off in the Bahamas has stoped. A trough coming off the Se U.S will help erode the western side of the ridge (though only some). In the first 60 hours expect a path over or very close to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands on Saturday evening then up NNW to N over Cuba on Sunday night. This is in agreement with the majority of the models but east of the as it doesnt recoginize the end of the western expansion of the bahama ridge. By Monday morning I see as a Cat 3 just sw of Key west moving N. By later in the day a N to maybe just NNE path will ensue as he goes along the western side of the ridge to its east based on the data I have seen right now. I dont expect a big quicker turn like the Tropical suites say and what did cause a stronger trough had was digging already into the Panhandle and N Florida making a obvious turn to the NE. Bonnie was the best insight of what was going to happen when she went more ENE showing the trough had already hit the Panhandle by then. So after 72 hours? Well its still uncertain on where exactly it will make landfall, but I dont see this going past 85W, infact maybe not 84W. Somewhere around 25N and 83-84W by later Monday afternoon. Movement should begin the NNE direction during the afternoon or night time hours. So landfall in Tampa? Sarasota? Cedar Key and Big Bend? well sure but that is at least 84 hours away or more if farther up the coast. Models we all look at will change from run to run so we cant say we are going with a certain model, just that model run at that z time. The has done well this year and so far with in the near terms. They will adjust postions with the data they recieve.
Anyways this should be a cat 3 when it makes landfall on the west coast of florida although a path closer to the big bend will be maybe down to a cat 2. There will be cooler waters from up near Tampa north and shear once it enters the gulf. One thing for sure that we all do know is that this will cause alot more wind and rain then did in a expanded area as this is alot bigger in size then . Also to note Miami to the keys and Naples isnt out of the woods yet. I do expect hurricane force winds in the southern Keys even if it does move on a path along 83-84W. Also Panama City- the Big Bend isnt out of the question yet since that is still 4-5 days out, especially the Big Bend. Anyways I will post more later and try to pinpoint a area of landfall on Saturday. scottsvb
that sums it up very well and i am glad to see you are leaving options on the table and that is fair...this forecast is tricky and few miles and 1/2 degree of movement will make all the difference. i dont thinkw e will have a better idea until it gets up over cooba. nonetheless it will be a big rain event..this is a very different system than even though the track is similiar.
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Chopper Dave
Unregistered
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Sorry to jump in the middle of the discussion, but does anyone have any idea what the chances of a Miami-Dade/Broward hit is? I know it's taking a path towards the west coast, but are there any indications that it could hit further east? I'd really appreciate any response.
Thanks
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lois
Unregistered
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is a twelve on monday
15 total
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Chopper Dave
Unregistered
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Quote:
is a twelve on monday
15 total
Now would someone like to actually answer my question, please?
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
this forecast is tricky and few miles and 1/2 degree of movement will make all the difference. i dont thinkw e will have a better idea until it gets up over cooba. nonetheless it will be a big rain event..this is a very different system than even though the track is similiar.
I don't think we'll know landfall until it makes landfall. sure didn't give up his secrets until the very last moment. No reason to think , coming in on a similar angle will do so. Everyone ought to stay prepared, I don't think we can pinpoint it within 100 miles either direction more than an hour before it lands. At which time it's too late to do anything but take cover.
-Bev
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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that data comes from the strike probability table. Scroll down to Miami...for the %s
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I think she was referring to the strike probabilities put out by the . 12% chance on the eye passing close by on Monday, 15% chance overall. They are giving the chances of the eye passing within so many miles (I think 75) during a particular time span.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Latest email:
Looking at the 1011 am EDT/1411 UTC visible satellite image from Monterrey CAT 4 's eyewall has collapsed. He is currently experiencing a some unexpected (by me) WSW shearing and is also over a large patch of cooler ocean water. Of course this latest weakening development is a good development for Jamaica. He continues on an approximate WNW heading at 13 mph but I think we "may" see him begin to turn more NW and slow down within 12-18 hours.
This slowing of his forward speed will "possibly" allow to turn NW-N along 80-81 deg. west longitude instead of 82-83 deg. west longitude. So at this time I'm revising my landfall forecast, something I rarely do!!!
I place a CAT 4 hurricane strike at 50% along the southern coast of Florida between Fort Lauderdale and Naples.
I place a CAT 3-4 hurricane strike at 55% along the gulf coast of Florida between Naples and Tarpon Springs.
I place a CAT 3 hurricane strike at 45% along the gulf coast of Florida between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key.
I place a CAT 2-3 hurricane strike at 40% in the big bend area between Cedar Key and Panacea.
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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SOFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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Does anybody have the link for entering your coordinates and you get the distance of where the eye will pass? We had it for
Thanks
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This is from StormCarib, but I believe it will work for any location if you have your lat/lon coords...
http://stormcarib.com/distance.htm
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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limerboy1
Unregistered
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Amen to that. I was in Kingston when the eye of Gilbert passed over, almost 16 years ago to the day. I do not wish for the destruction I saw that day to happen again.
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G8R
Unregistered
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Nasty rumor here in Tally is that Jeb is about to announce a gas ration.
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Kruz
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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Here in Marion County alot of stations stopped selling gas at noon so there will be enough for emergency vehicles....
-------------------- Dunnellon, FL
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