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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: IVAN...nothing else! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24950 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:29 PM

Agreed. Ivan is the story. It does like like he's encountering some northerly shear, but he has regained a robust eye...

wv loop

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: IVAN...nothing else! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24951 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:30 PM

I don't think it is shear as much as Ivan appears to be having some interaction with the land mass. Getting close to the island and there are some frictional issues with some mountains. Not as bad as what Dominica would do, though.

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tpratch
Unregistered




Re: Rumors and the danger [Re: Colleen A.]
      #24952 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:31 PM

Quote:

I honestly think the world is going nuts. This guy might TRY to rent a tanker, but first he's going to have to get the "thousands of pounds" from wherever he's keeping it, bring it to an airport and file a flight plan. I highly doubt that the FAA is going to let someone put thousands of stuff on a tanker plane when they don't know what EXACTLY that stuff is. Ain't gonna happen.
Nice effort on his part, though.




True story.

The folks at Dynomat were (by proxy) clients of mine once upon a time when I ran a design studio. They were working with a company that had B-57 Canberras that were loaded with some of the stuff and then dropped onto storms.

I'm sure they have material data safety sheets for the stuff or else nobody would be able to work around it. Consequently, they would be able to tell folks exactly what was in the stuff.

The company that owned the Canberras have since *snicker* evaporated from this town (I hear that they are being sought for defrauding their investors). I'm sure that's the only reason they haven't dumped anything on a storm this season and why they're trying to find a tanker to rent now.

/true story.


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Gerald
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Colleen A.]
      #24953 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:33 PM

I'll bet this one will veer off the W Coast and move north past the Tampa Bay area. Steering currents will cue it up.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: IVAN...nothing else! [Re: LI Phil]
      #24954 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:35 PM

In the last 25 posts or so, I hear about shearing, more easterly tracks, and slowing down. This is all what Thomas' email said in my post about one hour plus ago. He may be right on the money again.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Mozart
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: IVAN...nothing else! [Re: LI Phil]
      #24955 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:36 PM

The way he's elongating, it appears to my untrained eye like he's ready to make a turn, but it's way to early for that. However, can someone explain to me exactly what feature is preventing that? Isn't there a ridge in the GOM that would encourage a turn now?

Still learning...

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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5:00 PM discussion [Re: Gerald]
      #24956 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:38 PM

I really don't understand the logic in this. I'm guessing it is more political then scientific reason for not moving the track.

From the 5:00PM discussion:
"However...models are becoming in better
agreement on a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although
the official forecast could have been shifted a little westward due
to the new guidance...it is not prudent to make a change at this
time. The official forecast is now basically to the right of the
guidance envelope...and keeps the hurricane on a northward track
very close to the Florida West Coast."


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Gerald]
      #24957 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:38 PM

By the way it's slowing down, though, i'm not as sure on it's track anymore. I agree that the eye is much more distinct than earlier today and Jahmaica is in for a rough ride. I wonder how a slowdown would affect a timetable and forecast track for Ivan? I've also seen how less symetrical Ivan has turned and on the WV, it looks to be due, in part, to outside atmospheric influences rather than island interaction.

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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 5:00 PM discussion [Re: Rasvar]
      #24958 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:40 PM

Hmmm. Based upon the new update, the NHC is making this a panhandle/big bend hit.

wunderground 5 day

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 04:41 PM)


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Shear [Re: Rasvar]
      #24959 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:42 PM

I thought it looked like he was getting sheared by the upper low to the ne of him.

ShawnS


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Overall Water Vapor [Re: Terra]
      #24960 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:42 PM

I expect I'm interpeting this incorrectly, but based on this:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none

It looks like the Atlantic Ridge weakens to me. (as of now)

I can't help but have some healthy NIMBY wishcasting in that as well, so your mileage may vary.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Posts: 571
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Re: Shear [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24962 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:46 PM

It could be shear. It just looks like some of the disruption pattern correlates with the topography if I remember the topography correctly. Not all that certain, though.

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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


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Posts: 112
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Re: Shear [Re: Rasvar]
      #24963 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:47 PM

New Topic Up

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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
Re: 5:00 PM discussion [Re: Rasvar]
      #24964 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:47 PM

Stupid question, how do you get the discussions, maps, etc... a half hour before its on the website? I see the weatherunderground stuff, but I don't like there maps..
Thanks,


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: 5:00 PM discussion [Re: Cane Watcher]
      #24967 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:48 PM

I got it from weatherundergournd.com. They always seem to have it posted before other sites.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




WV Loops [Re: Rasvar]
      #24969 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:50 PM

Again, I'm not that good at looking at the wv and telling what will effect these storms so bear with me but it looks like to me that Ivan may want to go on a more northerly track much sooner than expected and miss Florida altogether. Please correct me if I'm way off here, but please be nice...LOL!

ShawnS


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Shear [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #24970 - Fri Sep 10 2004 04:51 PM

Dangit. So much for my Easterly turn. (flogs self with wet hurricane tracking chart)

The Big Bend track makes me SO nervous. I *might* stay if that's the case, but if it pulls a Charley to the right I'm going to get flattened.

It's just too far out yet to tell. (sigh)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: 5:00 PM discussion [Re: Rasvar]
      #24978 - Fri Sep 10 2004 05:01 PM

Ok, I'm stumped on this one. The models & the discussions we have seen and read would have you think that they would have shifted it to the right. But..
in the discussion they say it wouldn't have been "prudent" to move it more west, and it's to the right of the guidance envelope."
The only thing I can say is that they know something we don't. Like what the FSU ensemble is telling them.

I'm gonna watch Steve Jerve at 5 to see what he thinks. Interesting.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: 5:00 PM discussion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #24988 - Fri Sep 10 2004 05:07 PM

yeah well it beats the flip flopping.. I think they would rather not move the track as it could deter people from preparing, people who could be possibly be effected by Ivan 36-48 hours before the panhandle could. Guess they do not want another Charley situation..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Overall Water Vapor [Re: rule]
      #25011 - Fri Sep 10 2004 05:33 PM

Quote:

Personally, I'm hoping for a Charley track out of Ivan........




I considered letting that pass, but note my location. Let's think about what we post! Geez.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


Edited by Sadie (Fri Sep 10 2004 05:35 PM)


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