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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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andy1tom
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #24787 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:08 PM

yes but the longer it takes the greater the chances.. then if it takes too long it may move west of here.. still not calling for rick to abandon ship yet and i don't think tampa is outta of the woods but by the 5 advisory we should have a better grip on it. guess what i am saying is "i don't know"

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LI Phil
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ERC [Re: andy1tom]
      #24788 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:12 PM

Ivan seems to be undergoing another Eyewall Replacement Cycle which, depending upon the timing of it's completion, could spell even worse news for Jamaica-mon. Also, I don't see him missing Jamaica to the south...looks to be straight across the island...

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tenavilla
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Re: ERC [Re: LI Phil]
      #24789 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:16 PM

I agree. I just looked at the latest loop with the forecast points overlay, and it seems to be right on track for Jamaica. Plus, the eye is looking much healthier in the last hour.

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javlin
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: jth]
      #24790 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:16 PM

I was using the same guide lines myself but I think that bucket has holes in it.I do think Ivan might just clip the SW edge of Jamaica.I think Ivan looking more WNW lately.Still the slow down in forward speed says alot to me anyway.The ridge is weakening some and a change of direction is to come.The site FrankP put up early kinda of shows the WNW motion.

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rmbjoe1954
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Re: ERC [Re: LI Phil]
      #24791 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:17 PM

Then I see the entire peninsula of Florida in its direct path, but the only saving grace is that Ivan will more than likely trek across eastern Coobah that would potentially reduce its strength. The 800 pound gorilla could look like a tired 200 pound weakling- but still with potent energy unfortunately.

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

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Eagle_Ed
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Re: ERC [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #24792 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:30 PM

Don't count on a 200 lb. Chimp. The air temp around Jamacia is about 82F. As Ivan approaches 86-88F temps on the way to coobaa, you'll see Ivan intensify back to a Cat 5...
30 mi across coobaa is NOT enough to slow him down now, as his Eye will cross coobaa in 2 -21/2 hrs... Then it's MORE warm (86-88F) air until Fla...
Yea, I believe he could turn East, but anyway you look at it, it's time to batten down the hatches, and then say "I'm outta here, baby!


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Steve
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Re: ERC [Re: Eagle_Ed]
      #24793 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:34 PM

Models have merged around the point of impact for Charley. This is going to be a mess for those of you in Central and south Florida. If the Japanese typhoons telegraphed the movement of this system, look for a long slow crawl north after landfall. Looks to be a 1-2-3 punch for Florida with the Gulf season still yet to begin. If there's one thing I can be thankful for it's that my insurance was just renewed in July. I can't wait to see what 2005 has in store!

Steve

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LI Phil
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Ivan Damage Photo-Grenada [Re: Eagle_Ed]
      #24794 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:34 PM Attachment (351 downloads)

See attachment

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Takingforever
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Closing time [Re: Eagle_Ed]
      #24795 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:35 PM

Lets see right now...MSNBC has a loop of Ivan on the bottom right on their channel and talking about the last fight out of there(FL). TWC is in Tampa talking about leaving and taking cover, and Fox is talking about Jamaica, Cuba, and mud slides and flooding.

Nothing on CNN yet, but, I see that coming when it his Jamaica.


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HCW
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Re: Closing time [Re: Takingforever]
      #24796 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:37 PM

Hold the phone boys and girls


The FSU Super Ensemble Model takes this storm west with a landfall west of Pensacola .

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schmaa
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some input from outside FL [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #24797 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:39 PM

The local met in New Orleans just posted this on one of the New Orleans boards
Could be better news for peninsula FL? (I sure hope so)

BTW -- I cant seem to login -- not sure whats up

NEW INFORMATION - The FSU Super Ensemble Model Trends WEST.

Contacts tell me the FSU S.E. model (probably the best model out there) has trended west with the 7pm run from last night, now showing a landfall west of Pensacola, FL. It seems to be picking up on a ridge which is decaying less than what was previously thought. This means the panhandle is certainly still under the gun.

As stated in my previous discussion below, for this thing to do what the models are saying and go up FL proper, a bunch of variables will have to come together just right and the uncertainty remains pretty high that will happen, imo. NHC has their track right on top of the GFDL model now.

Based on this new information about the S.E. model, and my gut feelings all along, I feel as though this track may be too far east. Look for a possible shift in the track eventually if the FSU S.E. continues this trend.

What does this mean for us? Well, it means we are certainly not out of the woods altogether, nor have we been. However, *nothing* I have seen even suggests it will make it this far west and there is new model evidence to suggest that may be difficult. Like David said, the models are a little stronger on this little mini trough coming our way which would tend to keep Ivan away from us. But anywhere along the FL panhandle to Miami appears to be the highest risk at this point, with perhaps the risk increasing for the FL panhandle.

Even though it looks like a strike somewhere in FL is the best bet, there's still the posibility it could come far enough west to get everyone around here nervous.


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Fletch5150
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Re: ERC [Re: LI Phil]
      #24798 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:40 PM

I totally agree on the ERC occuring right now. I think this is whats causing some to see a more WNW direction. The last IR Sat appears to show the eye make a western movement, but the center of the central dense overcast continues on that 300 to 305 bearing. I think we will see the newly formed eye pop out in the CDO within the next few hours.

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ROB IN PA
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Re: ERC [Re: LI Phil]
      #24799 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:41 PM

This is first post on site. Have been on site for 2 weeks now and just want to thank all for info and to keep up the good work. My questions is if Ivan goes over eastern Jamaica wont the mts there rip storm apart. If im right mts are as much as 7500 feet high there. It just seems like that terrain would do quite a bit of damage to storm. Again thanks to all who help site as good as it is.

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Bev
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Re: Closing time [Re: HCW]
      #24800 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:45 PM

Quote:


The FSU Super Ensemble Model takes this storm west with a landfall west of Pensacola .




Oh my! That is news. Not good news for the folks up there, but I have to admit just the tiniest flicker of hope from the Tampa Bay area here.

Does the FSU Superensemble show it scraping along the FL West Coast or staying further offshore?


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ShaggyDude
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Re: ERC [Re: Fletch5150]
      #24801 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:46 PM

I'd have to say Ivan is getting it's act back together. The latest visible shows an eye trying to pop out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg


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Ed Hinman
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Re: Ivan Damage Photo-Grenada [Re: LI Phil]
      #24802 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:46 PM

For those looking for Grenada Pics.... Check out...
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml


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Kal
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Re: Closing time [Re: HCW]
      #24803 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:48 PM

I thought the FSU Super Ensemble might be pointing at something other than a SW Florida hit. That's the only explanation that I could fathom as to why the NHC track shifted slightly to the left at 11am (though I think the SW Florida scenario is most likely at this point). I suppose we'll see just how much weight the NHC folks put behind this model when the next advisory is issued.



Edited by Kal (Fri Sep 10 2004 12:56 PM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: ERC [Re: Fletch5150]
      #24804 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:48 PM

The FSU has been a western Outlier since the 5AM forecast.. So this is not new news.. They even mentioned this is in the 5AM..

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Rasvar
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Looking at the Jamician radar [Re: Fletch5150]
      #24805 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:50 PM

It really looks like it is on a collision course with Kingston. I know there is distance issues. However, the presentation seems pretty good. Plus the radar site is up higher, so they can probably aim lower. Does not look good for the island.

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AgentB
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Re: Closing time [Re: Kal]
      #24806 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:51 PM

Just got back from lunch and started checking the loops and models again. Only thing I can say right now is "wow" because the high pressure ridge to the east of Florida has impressively built further south and west, touching the southeast coast of Florida. Now whether this continues building further west or not remains to be seen, but it definitely bears close watching.

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