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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Closing time [Re: AgentB]
      #24807 - Fri Sep 10 2004 12:57 PM

12Z NOGAPS is much closer to the West Coast of Florida than previous 00Z Model.

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Kal
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Re: Closing time [Re: AgentB]
      #24808 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:02 PM

Latest NOGAPS (12z) trends east of the previous run, though still west (panhandle/big bend) of most models.

Just curious, how often does FSU run the Super Ensemble?


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Ed in Va
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Re: Closing time [Re: Kal]
      #24810 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:11 PM

Looking elongated in this pic:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

What does that mean? Someone posted last week about F. that it means that the storm will be shifting in that direction.

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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alley
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Re: TAMPA [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #24811 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:11 PM

Please give my thanks to Thomas. Do you or Thomas or anyone else know what the storm surge would be for Tampa Bay if Ivan touches the coast while heading north and what the surge would be if we take a direct hit? I've had no luck using Google finding answers to these questions. Local mets do mention storm surge but only that it will occur...of course, I may have missed that info if it was given because I'm channel hopping while surfing the 'Net.

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AgentB
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Re: Closing time [Re: Kal]
      #24812 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:12 PM

Hmm...I think I see what's happening here. The former TD 10 is moving almost due west. This movement has caused the high pressure ridge to the east of Florida to build further west/southwest. I know that this system had been forecast to move more SSE, and probably wasn't going to affect the high pressure ridge too much, but currently it seems to be responsible for pushing the ridge further and further over Florida.

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Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 10 2004 01:53 PM)


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LI Phil
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Tampa SLOSH map from Georges [Re: alley]
      #24813 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:15 PM

This should give you an idea of surge flooding from a CAT III...not good.

Also shows Pensacola & PCB regions

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Fletch5150
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Re: Closing time [Re: AgentB]
      #24814 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:20 PM

The ridge was forecast to build across FL today and tonight. The upper level low between 50 and 60 is going to ride the southern periphery of the high and begin to erode the ridge in 24-48 hours. This is what should start the NW - NNW - N motion. The timing of the upper low arrival is critical. The lates Vapor loop shows some western progress of the low.

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alley
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Re: Tampa SLOSH map from Georges [Re: LI Phil]
      #24815 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:22 PM

Thanks LI Phil. Guess I can kiss my house goodbye before we leave...not bending over to kiss the other.

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Sam33
Unregistered




Re: Rapid Scan Operation [Re: Fletch5150]
      #24816 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:24 PM

WOW......they now have goes east in super rapid scan....looks like every min or two...... amazing sat pics....looks like the will pass over the southern side of jamica....don't think it will miss the island

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Norm in Canada
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Re: ERC [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #24817 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:25 PM

An observation from a fire weather forecaster in the frozen North. There has been some discussion about Cuba's topography and its ability to affect intensity....In western Cuba the highest peaks are 300m (the projected path of Ivan). In central Cuba the highest peak is 1100m. In eastern Cuba the highest peak is 1800m. Bottom line is that there is little to no potential for topography to influence the intensity of this storm. Jamaica is the same story. Intensity will be a function of eyewall replacement, shear and SSTs.

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StormHound
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Re: ERC [Re: Fletch5150]
      #24818 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:25 PM

Quote:

This is first post on site. Have been on site for 2 weeks now and just want to thank all for info and to keep up the good work. My questions is if Ivan goes over eastern Jamaica wont the mts there rip storm apart. If im right mts are as much as 7500 feet high there. It just seems like that terrain would do quite a bit of damage to storm. Again thanks to all who help site as good as it is.




Given the small size of Jamaica compared to the robust size of Ivan, it won't do much to weaken him. The center of Ivan would not be over Jamaica for a long period of time. Cuba has a better chance of disrupting things if Ivan moves more towards central Cuba. If he passes through the Isle of Youth like Charley, Cuba won't weaken him that much either.

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Storm Hound
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LI Phil
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SLOSH map for Mobile [Re: StormHound]
      #24819 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:29 PM

Mobile

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images [Re: LI Phil]
      #24820 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:32 PM

You can almost see where this thing is headed by looking at this... http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sti...amp;overlay=off

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Bev
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Re: SLOSH map for Mobile [Re: LI Phil]
      #24821 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:34 PM

Quote:

Mobile




How are you getting these SLOSH maps? Can someone point me in that direction or provide me with a SLOSH of Manatee County hit? My area is just south of the Tampa info already provided. My home is located directly on Palma Sola Bay.

Thanks!
Bev

Google...I'll try to find one for your area

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 01:35 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Closing time [Re: HCW]
      #24822 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:37 PM

Sorry, but you're getting some wrong information again. The Superensemble has never called for a landfall west of Pensacola; in fact, the 12Z run today is the first one that even brings it to landfall...and I'll tell you this much: it's 200+ miles from Pensacola, and not west.

The FSU Superensemble has consistantly been on the left hand side of the track guidance. The NHC official is almost directly over the GFDL, the ensemble mean, and the GUNA (GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN) consensus. Both have track errors from Frances of just 150mi. at 5 days, a very low error and both by far the best. FSU Superensemble says Panhandle, NHC says Tampa...we'll see what happens.

But I can assure you and everyone out there that it does not say west of Pensacola, and never has.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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AgentB
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Re: Closing time [Re: Fletch5150]
      #24823 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:38 PM

Quote:

The ridge was forecast to build across FL today and tonight. The upper level low between 50 and 60 is going to ride the southern periphery of the high and begin to erode the ridge in 24-48 hours.




The low you are referring to is what I was referring to as the remnants of TD 10. From what I had seen/read it was supposed to track more SSE, and not due west like it is currently doing. From what I see this due west movement has served to build the ridge further south than what I had seen forecasted. Truthfully I am surprised to see the ridge build almost to Cuba as it has this afternoon. Obviously a lot can change in just a matter of hours, and the ridge can retreat just as quick as it strengthened. However, it bears close watching as it will have a firsthand impact on where Ivan tracks.

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Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 10 2004 01:54 PM)


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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: SLOSH map for Mobile [Re: Bev]
      #24824 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Mobile




How are you getting these SLOSH maps? Can someone point me in that direction or provide me with a SLOSH of Manatee County hit? My area is just south of the Tampa info already provided. My home is located directly on Palma Sola Bay.

Thanks!
Bev

Google...I'll try to find one for your area





I used to live on Anna Marie Island. I fear that a at 3 would devastate that island


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Ed in Va
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Re: Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #24825 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:38 PM

Good link. Ivan and TD 10 are connected by a flow. Is there a name for this....what impact on track? Sorry, guys, I have a lot more questions than answers.

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Clark
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Re: Closing time [Re: Kal]
      #24826 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:38 PM

It is run every 6 hrs.

As an aside, confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves, but I'm still sticking to my guns there...as is the Superensemble, like it has for 3 days now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Fletch5150
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Re: Closing time [Re: Kal]
      #24827 - Fri Sep 10 2004 01:39 PM

If my memory is correct, I think they run it every 24 hours. The data collection and input takes between 10-16 hours. By the way the history of the ensemble has a 225+ mile error at 5 days.

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