GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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Hey clark, I for one am glad to see you post that. Cause I was real confused for a while. Thanks! 
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Mobile 
Thanks I may need that
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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RMagic
Registered User
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Posts: 3
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Quote:
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If the course holds true and Venice through Tampa take a direct hit, it might be the $60 BILLION question. :-(
-Bev
You're exactly right. My husband is in construction here in Tampa and we were just talking about that. If the eye comes up the bay like they're forecasting now, we're in so much trouble. caused a huge flooding problem and she was weak by the time she got here. Most of downtown is built to pre-Andrew codes, and all the electric is underground. During they shut down the entire downtown power grid to avoid storm surge problems, although I'm not entirely sure that will completely alleviate the problem. I'm really frightened to think of what a hurricane this size can do to a major metropolitan area.
my parents live in evacuation level 3 in south tampa. During water came within about 4 blocks of their house. If were to give a direct hit....i think everyone can just kiss the city of tampa goodbye.
The thing that really upsets me tho....is all the yuppies in south tampa that think the city has some kind of silver bullet. The night before we evacuated for (i was down from UF b/w semesters at the time), the idiots were throwing PARTIES throughout the area. It's just ridiculous...
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Go Gators! (but ron zook makes me cry like a baby)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ivan and TD 10 really aren't linked...there is an upper low to the NE of that is helping to evacuate its outflow. To the NE of that, there is another smaller upper low, followed by yet another a bit to the NE of that by the Azores. This link will have no effect on the track of ; the only impacts will likely be felt by what the larger upper low and a weaker vortex just NE of the Bahamas do to the subtropical ridge steering the storm, not any link to other systems well to the NE.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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It is run every 6 hrs.
As an aside, confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves, but I'm still sticking to my guns there...as is the Superensemble, like it has for 3 days now.
Clark, my personal psychic ensemble shows it bouncing off Steinhatchee, and ricocheting towards Tallahassee - don't you all have a super-collider over there too? How about trying to boiung! it back out in the Gulf?
Susie
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hang on!
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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good afternoon ya'll. I just got on the site for the first time today. And I'm sure that this question has been answered........ Are we looking at a Tampa hit or around a PCB hit? If he does make landfall in Tampa, any idea where he'll go from there? Is the east coast safe?
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Kelly
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I lost track of former TD #10. Is that the swirl that is now at 30N 60W and racing westward?
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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When I was a kid, I remember seeing a film strip in school showing the people who threw the hurricane party for Camille. Needless to say, what they experienced was far worse than any hangover they ever had.
Note on the new : It is still farthest east, but the one thing it has been consistent on is parking it in the Carolinas. I'm not ready to buy that one yet either.
As far as Jamaica, Gilbert never weakened while crossing it, although it may have slowed down its rate of strengthening. I am not so sure it will have a big impact. As the last day has shown, the storm could weaken like that on its own. It does look like dry air got entrained, possibly a result of the land masses to its north. No new vortex messages out yet either.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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A little later this time. Was out saving the world...
Full size image available at: Skeetobite.com
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Not fun at all. I just moved into my house about a month ago over next to the bay. I've headed to Atlanta for the weekend and probably will wait to see if I'm heading back Sunday night. I'm just hoping my roommate/friend is able to head over to West Palm Saturday via the train, because I really wouldn't want her to be stuck in the house. Ugh. One month in the house. and all of this. No wonder I still consider Atlanta home
Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'll put up as many as I can find...
Collier County
CFHC links...scroll down and look at county info
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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RMagic
Registered User
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Posts: 3
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Quote:
When I was a kid, I remember seeing a film strip in school showing the people who threw the hurricane party for Camille. Needless to say, what they experienced was far worse than any hangover they ever had.
yeah....my parents have told me stories about that storm. I just can't grasp the stupidity of some people..
Also - not that anyone cares but Gainesville got hit pretty hard by . Lots of downed trees. At one point over 3/4ths of the county didn't have power. Sewage problems also occurred as many lift stations for sewage didn't have power. I can post pictures if anyone's interested....
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MO stormspotter
Unregistered
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If passes the Tampa Bays Area offshore what does that mean for the storm surge for Tampa and the surrounding barrier islands?
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://flhurricane.com/links.php
Follow the link LI Phil put up.... he is getting it as fast as he can.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Also - not that anyone cares but Gainesville got hit pretty hard by . Lots of downed trees. At one point over 3/4ths of the county didn't have power. Sewage problems also occurred as many lift stations for sewage didn't have power. I can post pictures if anyone's interested....
My sister goes to UF(Go Gators!...lol) and she said it was pretty bad in some areas. She ended up losing power while I never did.
Anyway, 2pm update just out and has moved much further west than north. .3 degrees north and .7 degrees west. Winds are still 145mph, pressure is 939mb and winds extend out 60mi(hurr.)/175mi(t.s.)
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Check the Surf
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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I'll put up as many as I can find...
Collier County
Thanks Phil! I'm still searching for Manatee and wrote to the EOC here but they are probably far too busy to respond.  I'll post it if I find one.
Thanks!
-Bev
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Isn't the track really a case of walking between the two right now? And, in their own discussion earlier they indicated there was a great uncertainty down the road. Something about it could possibly at some point even go NNE?
Interested to see next set of runs.
And again.. see which model tracks are the most consistent over the long term.
Isn't it possible that as opposed to think the set are garbage in and out that they see something and hang with it vs something the other models discount?
watching a Cane fan in Miami
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>The night before we evacuated for (i was down from UF b/w semesters at the time), the idiots were throwing PARTIES throughout the area. It's just ridiculous...
We've been known to party in New Orleans from time to time when hit by a hurricane. Then again, we've been known to party because it's Wednesday at 3:00
The story about the hurricane party on the MS was somewhat debunked in recent times. Snopes doesn't have anything on it, but I distinctly recall coming across some new information on that whole thing a few years back.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Here's one for your reference, Phil. It covers the entire state of South Carolina.
South Carolina model
Click in the middle where it says "Flood Zones: Do you live in one?" This will give the map for the entire state.
(Unfortunately you have to go this way. You can't just link directly to the map for some reason.)
Edited by Mozart (Fri Sep 10 2004 06:09 PM)
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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This isn't the most detailed map I've ever seen, but try this link:
Florida Disaster Public Maps
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