MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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At 11PM, was a high end Category 4 storm (1 MPH more would put it into cat 5 status), and it's current deepening cycle makes it an almost certainty that it will reach category 5 before it reaches Jamaica. Jamaica right now is feeling hurricane force winds, but the eyewall is still offshore by about 30 miles.
Folks, there will be huge devistation and death in Jamaica. Prayers are definitely with them tonight.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Once again, Mike, thanks for the new thread...and the possible CAT V threat to Jamaica...they really need to keep abreast of things.
PM me about the breach of the site..I can't find it...could be that it's late Friday night...let me know...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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The pressure is about as low as it was when it was a 5. Unless it weakens soon due to proximity of Jamaica, the stronger winds should spin down to the surface by morning, and push it past the 155 it now is. 90 deg. water north of Jamaica is not too far off. The next Vortex message should be interesting.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
Still, looks like the eye may miss landfall.
However, that's like the difference between "really bad", and "super bad"...
Must be a freakin' wild ride down there
My hopes are with them.
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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It looks to me like it is going west. Just plain west.
Is that all wrong?
Susie
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hang on!
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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I thought I was seein' things on that little west hop...
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just heard on WXIA 11 Alive that the Ga Department of Transportation announced that they may make both I-75 and I-95 Northbound one-way if needed for evacuees from Florida. I-75 will run at least 100 miles northbound with the southbound lanes reversed.
GDOT Press Release
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Like I said earlier, a (hopefully) wobble to the West might make it miss landfall. That is still holding, evidently. I can't see it making any difference in U.S. landfall, but just to spare Jamaica a little.
Man, must be really, REALLY bad there right now... 
Edit: I Googled topographical info earlier. I think the SW to W of Jamaica has tons of rivers coming out of an E to W spine of mountains... going to be tons of flooding in the West from what I learned... Only hope is that it's moves through quickly.
Edited by rule (Fri Sep 10 2004 11:14 PM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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It maybe moving slightly North of West, but it looks like the ridge is eroding.. so like the will most likely turn more northward maybe tommorow or so..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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This is absolutely incredible to see strengthen in an environment of increased shear - obviously not enough to counter the higher SSTs.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Is there any possibility that is will turn purely west?
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hang on!
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Loc: Canton, Ga
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Holy S%&t, Man! We think we have traffic problems here now? Not to mention HERO can't do things here in a reasonable timeframe, let alone dealing with a ton of evacs.
I spoke to my mom today (Vero) she said that there were power crews, etc. there from all over the country (Or, Wa, NY, Ky, etc) She still is without power. They said they HOPE to get it on by tomarrow.
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Kelly
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I agree. has just BOOMED visually the last few hours. Scary how it's reformed so easily, especially at night.
Maybe the extended ridge I think I'm seeing will interfer with on a (hopefully) down-cycle in the morning.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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Ivan is approaching that critical phase of curvature. Forecasts and movement have been so consistent, so expect to continue "stair-stepping" northwestward toward Cuba.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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We've got people here in Ocala with power-restoration timelines in the late next week.
Just Imagine if walks through....
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Quote:
Ivan is approaching that critical phase of curvature. Forecasts and movement have been so consistent, so expect to continue "stair-stepping" northwestward toward Cuba.
Thanks.
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hang on!
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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While I'm not a forecaster by any means, I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night...
Ummm... *NO*
it's going to hit from the Everglades to the Panhandle... Stay tuned...
Don't worry too much. We'll get through this as many have before us..
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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God Forbid....but, if were to hit the west coast as a cat v, and it scooted across the state into the Atlantic, how much would it weaken by the time the eye wall hits the other coast? (I mean the E coast of Fl not NC, SC)
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Kelly
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I'm a little confused tonight as to where the forecast is going with this Hurricane. I see the sticking with a track to the panhandle, and then I see Joe B insistant on a West Coast landfall, along with the Accuweather forecast. I do respect both forecasts but each has different implications for the peninsula. What is it that sees that JB doesn't or what is it that JB sees that doesn't? What do the other Mets thing about this? (Ed, JK, Clark and others).
And as for this " A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK COULD BRING INLAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA." I think that kinda shows the uncertainty in the track and implies that the Hurricane could landfall anywhere on the west coast.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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There is no way it's a Cat V. I would guess II to III. As far as how much it would weaken, see . ( i.e., not much)
To be honest, I'm hoping it will go ANYWHERE from me at least 80 miles away as a Cat II. (Wishcast # 2407)
Just get some sleep tonight. It's a LONG way off, and many things can change in the next 48 hours..
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