MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane remains a strong Category 5 hurricane, actually the 6th strongest ever seen in the Atlantic, with a pressure at 910mb. And it still has potential to strengthen even more. The strongest recorded was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, with a pressure of 888 mb.
The future track continues to slide west, the Panhandle being the highest probabiility. But I've noticed that the models have still been too far right ever since was a depression. This trend has been interesting. Note, that a US landfall would't be until tuesday or wednesday night and the track could still change.
Until starts making a definitive move, the confidence in any of this is low. Hurricane Mitch is a good example of why.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The and models do not do well in the gulf. They never have.. Hurricanes seem to misbehave once they enter the gulf. I am not saying that the storm will misbehave, but I caution anyone to not take this track literally.. Take your precautions, but watch this storm carefully. We are still 4-5 days out from a landfall (maybe soon depending upon how well behaves)... The hurricane is about to enter the playground.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Well Im surely getting nervous up here in the Western Panhandle. Me and the family are probably going to start getting prepared tomorrow buying some essential things like water, food, batteries etc. Still have 3 bags of ice left over from last week as we prepared just in case came to visit. Tomorrow should be intresting. By the way, Clark, JK what are ya'll thinking right now? Love your posts.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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what are your thoughts on s landfall? do you truly think we might be out of the woods? Im just south of tampa, kinda in your neck of the woods.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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With the path projected above, it seems like won't have much land to cross over when it hits Cuba, therefore, isn't it possible for him to not weaken too much as the eye passes land?
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Kelly
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Current track makes me happy. (sorry) This is 24 hours of forecasting AWAY from me, so I'm starting to believe it.
I see finally "wobbling" off of West at the moment. Anyone have a current strength?
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Kelcot, shouldnt weaken to much crossing Western Cuba but once he gets in the Gulf shear is forecasted to hopefully weaken a bit, also the TCHP isnt as high except in a area south of Mobile. So to answer your question, conditions wont be perfect like they are now to sustain a Cat5 in the gulf but maybe a strong 3. just my opinion and things could change so just watch it carefully.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike, gotta be on the ball for all the new forums: here's a repost from the last one:
Tick...tick...tick...getting close to 9/12
Never thought I'd say this, but I tend to agree with y'all that the 5 day has been a good experiment gone awry...too much uncertainty and not enough ...what...confidence? It's hard enough to do 72 hours, but 120 is really pushing it. I vote with the board on this one...scrap it. Or don't include it in the cone, because that cone is like 750 miles wide...
Anyone else with me?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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To Mike or whichever brother or moderator started this thread. Best words I've seen written anywhere. Almost didn't check in tonight because as far as I'm concerned until starts to move... and all the official tracks deal with his extremely slow movement which is just barely occaisionally north of due west..everything is all speculation.
Good quote.."Until starts making a definitive move, the confidence in any of this is low. Hurricane Mitch is a good example of why."
Very good, well written, well said.. congratulations.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Posted in the last thread, reposting here:
I have a computer program that I use for tracking. I just pulled up my extended forecast from the 5pm discussion yesterday. The forecast just over 30 hrs ago was for the eye to pass just west of Montego Bay, right over Cayman Brac (the island to the far right) and just east of Havana. They had the US landfall just a little to the east of where they have it now. As far as timing, it was supposed to be over Cayman Brac right now. Obviously, none of that has come to pass  Just goes to show how inaccurate hurricane forecasts can be.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I think the 5 day is just bad. It's a nice idea, but we're just not able to forecast such a complex event yet.
Go back to the 3 day. It will cause less trauma.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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I understand that it is extreamly difficult to maintain a storm of that intensity..........however......
1. is like no other storm I've seen in my 25 years of life, everytime I think "O.k., this is it, he's going to loose some of his power", but he gets stronger.
2. The GOM waters are almost like bath water now.
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Kelly
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I'm not liking this one bit.... Looking at the IR. if it continues on its present course, it misses Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
If if misses Cuba (unless it continues west, my wishcast, actually), it's way too west into the GOM. This is in line with the trough in the GOM moving slight westerly. I am beginning to really worry about New Orleans and the subdeltas....
Where's the AgI (an alternative to the always mentioned) when you need it????
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I have to agree with scrapping the 5-day and just sticking to their knitting and do a 3-day. I have to agree with Phil and they should re-name the 5 day cone the "Cone of Crapola" because that's where it usually ends up more wiggles and waggles than Sergio Garcia.....
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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repost:
Quote:
But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.
The last couple of forecast did not call for it to be north of the northern edge of Jamaica until sometime after 2:00-3:00am EDT. 18.7N 80.5N was the 2:00am forecast from 5:00 PM. I think it will be just a tad off at 18.6N 80.6W around 2:00am.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Before enters the Gulf. Take a tracking map, of the GOM region, and throw a dart at it. You've got a 50/50 shot at getting it right.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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I was just watching the 6 hr Sat loops, and 's over all size has decreased. Is this a sign of maybe more strengthing? I would think the small he becomes at his current 165 mph would only increase his wind speeds. Is there a something I'm missing?
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I think the studies show that the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts used to be, that's why they now include them. Storms like this will always present a problem, but I don't think their previous 5 days' were that bad. It is just something we have to get used to. In fact, Isabel was nailed I believe. So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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I just looked at my "historical" files of the track. I use a computer program and keep the forecasted tracks to compare them to what actually happens. Even on 24 hr forecasts they have been way off with this one. See my earlier post in this thread regarding yesterdays 5pm
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Wellll... I've been saying it's going West all night, but I see a wobble to the WNW already. Probably going to scrape Grand Cayman and smack Cuba as scheduled.
My head hurts.
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