MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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3PM
Ivan is left of the forecast a bit, and models are starting to trend more westward... again. It will be a long week folks.
2PM
Reports of heavy damage in the Cayman Islands as well as storm surge flooding.
Noon
Just in case you wanted a bit more dash of confusion, the global models have shifted a bit east around noon. I'll wait on the trends and the motion of the storm. And at the same time, the storm has wobbled left of the 's track a bit.
11AM
Tropical Storm watches are up for the Keys, the track remains the same. Watch for the turn today, model guidance suggests it. Intensity forecasts are equally as problematic as the track.
There really isn't any overwhelming reason to doubt the 's track, although it hinges on a Northwestward turn later today.
Original Update
Hurricane this morning is Southwest of the Cayman islands, again going south of and west of the forecast track from yesterday. The slower motion also adds uncertainty, and pushes out the possible timeline. Assuming it does turn north, we’d be looking for a US landfall Wednesday night or Thursday.
Ivan is still sneaking westward now, and the slower and further west it goes the more of a monkey wrench it throws into the 5 day forecast. It already has thrown it off a bit. The cone of error due to it’s slow movement is huge. It’s possible for the storm to get very close to the Yucatan now before it might make its northward turn (if at all).
We’ll be looking for gains in latitude today, for the future track of . It’s persistently been left of the track so far, and the trend may continue. However, once it does make a northward turn it could head back east some, so the entire Gulf still needs to watch it. is being a pain and I can almost guarantee a few more surprises before it’s over with. Look for movement northward to begin before the day is over with, and if it does not, all bets are off.
Large storms on this scale (strong Category 5ish) tend to do what they want at these latitudes – “ignoring” climatology, so it’s not too surprising that the forecasts have been off. It’s great news for Grand Cayman. But the slower the forward motion the more uncertainty where it will go. Today, the future track of is still shaky at best. But the most likely landfall remains the Florida Panhandle, but the confidence in that is so low at the moment, it’s hardly worth mentioning.
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Event RelatedLinks
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Seele
Unregistered
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This is great news for the Caymans as I wake up this morning. Hopefully this damage will be minimal for a storm of this power and distance to them.
Strangely enough, I think the current weakening due to an eye wall replacement cycle may have happened at the worst time for the Caymans. The latest vortex message reports a 70 mile (60 NM) diamater secondary eye wall with the max winds on that, I think you can even see it in the sat photo on the intro post. This would put the Caymans in the worst part of the hurricane right now.
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spook
Unregistered
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I noticed on wv images dry air north of ,is this caused by him sucking up all the moisture?Also I thought women where the most hard to predict.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Ivan should start it's northward turn very soon, the good thing is that since the storm has grown in size, much more shear will be affecting it then opposed to a small storm. Hopefully it will get torn to pieces but that's not that likely, I wonder what the recon is going to report.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Seems everyone is uncertain about 's future...I just read this in AOL's headline news...
"Millions more people are in its path, with projected to go between the Cayman Islands, make a direct hit on Cuba and then either move into the Gulf of Mexico or hit South Florida."
I was thinking that south Florida was pretty much in the clear...
thoughts???
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spook
Unregistered
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TheTpc says weak steering currents inlong term,tells me they have no idea what will happen once its enters gulf?
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Of course it is. We have bought all the plywood and generators available and the tourists may leave next so sure, Florida is in the clear. I am afraid I am getting very cynical
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I don't know where they got that South Florida was going to be hit, even though the says it's going to the panhandle. It's not like AOL has there own TPC, or do they!
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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...and since they don't have a whole lot of confidence than that is why they are not moving the track even though they say it is because everything is on schedule. No since in moving the track if you don't know where to move it to; best just to leave it as is.
ShawnS
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rd522525
Unregistered
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the latesy hasnt changed much!
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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tend to agree with you on that.. if this happens it should turn north, if not it stays west. been waiting on that northern turn for a few days now. i don't think they expected it to slow down either. personally not to wish bad luck on someone else but i hope it keeps going west and never makes that northern turn. i think a few others have done the same but a few have made that turn. so we still don't know
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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No one is in the clear until is permenantly on land. I have seen storms in the past do strange things like go in cirlces, go backwards, then forward. Hurricanes are just plain unpredictalbe creatures.
Quote:
Seems everyone is uncertain about 's future...I just read this in AOL's headline news...
"Millions more people are in its path, with projected to go between the Cayman Islands, make a direct hit on Cuba and then either move into the Gulf of Mexico or hit South Florida."
I was thinking that south Florida was pretty much in the clear...
thoughts???
-------------------- "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Well, AOL is usually the first place I go for my tropical information. Then if still in doubt I come to this board.
AOL ??
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lois/bobbi
Unregistered
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someone warn them fast
watching sats
whole set up is so e/w here its beyond words yet we are still expecting a move to the north
yesterday there was a weakness in the ridge to the north of , he didnt bite..
hard to believe he is going to climb
see the front but its a dry one so far and storms like wet warm water... wet big trofs racing down..
not sure this isnt going into the yucatan..
you be the judge
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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belleami
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Well here on the island I am packing, just in case. Happy to think that it may go farther west than yesterday's track (no offense meant to all west of me).
The uncertainty is maddening.... but we're packing anyway to be on the safe side.
No hotels seem to be available in Tallahassee to Jacksonville; Dothan and points south either.
-------------------- hang on!
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spook
Unregistered
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I wish I was in the keys today nopeople.No Storm!!!
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rd522525
Unregistered
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my thoughts too! well see.
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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We've got hotel rooms in Naples, where I am nervous but optimistic. At least, I think I am optimistic?
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spook
Unregistered
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The TPC is the experts,the last time I listened to an expert I lost money in the stock marketGo figure!.
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jamserve
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
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http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm
Here's an interesting link to current wx in the Cayman's. Check out the rain rate.
J
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