MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
Hurricane is leaving the Cayman Islands, but now still heading West Northwest toward the Yucatan Channel. It hasn't turned yet. Mexico has put up Tropical Storm Watches for the Yucatan.
is expect to turn north and then venture into the Gulf when steering currents may weaken, adding to the unknown future of the forecast track. The National Hurricane Center expect it to weaken some once it arrives in the gulf, which is some good news, but still remain a major hurricane at landfall.
Low confidence track, do not plan based on this, errors may be 300+ miiles off.
Currently it's category 4, but with concentric eyewalls, one about 40nm wide and another 15nm wide. This indicates it probably will regain category 5 again tonight.
Bottom line, as far as the US is concerned, we still aren't sure where. The entire Gulf coast needs to watch this, with special interest in the Panhandle of Florida. Things may change.... Stay tuned. Surprises still to come. I must say I do think heading westward to Louisiana, etc is very unlikely.
** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.
Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606
Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Satellite (With Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Disaster Relief Information
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the new thread, Mike. Site's been holding up reasonably well, considering the circumstances...
Your new server can't get here soon enough!
I know ALOT of you have been sending Mike contributions and I want to thank all of you who have. If you like the site, and want to keep it due-free & adfree (I think we all want that), please consider throwing a couple of bucks Mike's way...did it myself last night, using paypal...simple, fast and easy...all the contributions are going towards the new server.
Oh, yeah, I guess we got a hurricane going on...
let's talk about that!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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Quote:
BUT looking at the latest water vapor satellite image I see a slight weakening of the large Bermuda high pressure ridge and a strengthening and southward digging of the 500 mb shortwave in the vicinity of SE Texas/SW Louisiana. I think this trend will continue, with forecast models and the official track coming back towards the east with time.
There is still a good "chance" for a further east landfall in the vicinity of Cedar Key with some damaging storm surge in the shallow estuary of Tampa Bay and northward along the Nature Coast.
I'm a greenie at this, a real greenie, but I am seeing the same thing. In the interest of my education, I'd sure like to hear more discussion of this scenario.
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The Models, this season, have in the general sense been too far to the left...Mr. Stewart is well aware of this, and I surmise that this is the reason that the track is to the right of the guidance, and I concur with this completely.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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If only Mr. Stewart could write every discussion.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I agree, and, if I remember correctly, the and BAM are most likely to exhibit this bias. FWIW, the new ETA shows it getting into the Cent. Gulf, then moving east of due north sparing La. This, too, tends to be a leftward model, but I am more accustomed to its biases in the winter time with east coast storms.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Do you see that tropical wave 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands, I now it's early but it's huge. Let's concentrate on , though.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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As we've said before, Stewart writes his discussions really well. They are thought out with a lot of information and easy to follow and understand.
BTW, now appears to finally be moving more NW.
I expect it will continue and possibly even lean toward NNW in the coming hours.
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BillD
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Well, the man has to sleep sometime! 
And to be fair, the others do a really good job. It is just that some explain their thought process more than others, and Mr. Stewart does the most explaining, which is why we like his discussions.
Bill
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Last post on Stewart..
It is, I believe, an art to be such a highly respected met as he is, forgetting more about the weather than most of us will ever know, to "dumb down" a discussion so folks like me can understand it. Not too verbose, but always JUST the right amount of info...in a way, Jason & Clark are very much like that and I'm so glad they give of their time and energies to post here!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It was almost as though he was reading from the last two pages on the previous thread. Maybe we're not so "green" after all.
I have had a feeling all along that the slowdown in 's forward movement changed things considerably. The might be keeping the W/NW movement for now until they see more consistency. Have you noticed that with every advisory since about 11pm last night that they have kept the track to the right of the model guidance? This might be why.
I'm not afraid to put my neck on the chopping block since no one can actually GET to me with an actual axe, but I think (and I stress "I" very highly here) that down the line we may see that track move back to the right ever so slowly.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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TAZRACER
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Latimer MS
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TWC just said that S winds are at 165mph thats not good
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Taz racer
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I agree with you, it is starting to turn to the the Northwest, let's see what happens.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
I'm not seeing NW here. I still see WNW with a little hint of W on the last frame.
ShawnS
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KJJBCr
Unregistered
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I'm very impressed. This is about Jason from website http://www.wjhg.com/station/bios/weather/474432.html: Born and raised in west Alabama, Jason Kelley has known since a very young age that meteorology was his destiny. Jason was three years old during the SuperOutbreak on April 3 and 4, 1974, the largest outbreak of Tornadoes in US history.
"I remember quite clearly the weather that day, in fact, it is the only clear memory I have from that age. It made quite an impression on me that carries on to this day".
Jason attended the University of Alabama and the Broadcast Meteorology Program on campus at Mississippi State. Upon completion at MSU, he began his broadcasting career as Chief Meteorologist at WABG-TV, the ABC affiliate in Greenville, MS. Four years later he left TV for a while to work in several capacities at Baron Services in Huntsville, AL. Baron is the leading supplier of Doppler Radar and displays for the Broadcast industry, and Jason was one of the designers of the system (which is in use at !).
Jason also served and continues to serve as a teacher and lecturer of Doppler radar interpretation and severe weather forecasting at conferences across the country. After Baron, Jason made his way to in the spring of 1999.
Jason is a licensed Amateur Radio operator (KC5JEA) and also teaches classes at Gulf Coast Community College in its Lifelong Learning department. He is a true geek, with interests in computers and home theater equipment. He also leads his Sunday School class at Woodlawn United Methodist Church.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow, reminds me I need to update the about page here, it's fairly out of date now. Next year will start the 10th year of doing this, and it's gonna look a bit different for it .
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Doing best JK:
"Aw shucks."
Yet there are people on this website (not the regulars, usually the clueless drifters) who constantly try to rip him a new one...amazing.
JK rocks, that's for sure.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I see the NW, mark off all the boxes except the ones on the ends and then slow the time down. Put your mouse pointer at the center of the eye in the first frame and compare the two locations of the eye. Hope that helps.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
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agreed. It is awfully nice to have JK and the other mets contributing, not everyone would do that.
The last few frames of NW movement are still going to keep ever so slightly left of the next forecast plot, but with sharpening trough, it needs to be watched to see if it turns into a trend. The eye has tightened up, and the threshold for cat 5 is 920 mbs, and it is now at 916, and looks to be dropping.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 181
Loc:
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On the overall trend of things, it is significant that the Yucatan coast now has a TS warning and hurricane watch! Not too many of us expected to move as far south of Grand Cayman as it did.
I mentioned last night that I didn't expect to move north of Cuba's latitude for the next 48 hours, and it looks like we might have to wait another 48 hours from this point ... as Mr Stewart is now pointing out. is certainly earning their money this year, particularly with .
Now that the ridge to the north is breaking down, we can all anticipate a more NW movement with some acceleration after 24 hours. At this point, I'm still living within the 48 hour window ... something that those of us living along the coast (at a latitude above 23) need to get used to.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
Edited by RevUp (Sun Sep 12 2004 05:47 PM)
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