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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26745 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:41 PM

Jason,

What're you kidding me?

Edit THAT post?

Jesus (sorry) I've got tears in my eyes...I told you this in a PM but I'll reiterate it here...godspeed!

I'm not a religious man, but Ivan is making me rethink my position on that...you be safe!!!

Someone is going to feel a whole world of hurt...only problem is wishing it somewhere else only moves that hurt somewhere else...too bad my Fl Straits theory can't happen...

I'm sure there about a million or more who have to make life and death decisions in the next 24 hours...they may as well have the whole cone under evac orders.

My heart goes out to each and everyone of you. Wish there was something I could do from up here...I'm really hurting for the bucks ATTM, but whoever needs whatever I can send, let me know...

hoofah

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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visitor
Unregistered




Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26746 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:41 PM

Prayers are on the way along with prayers for my family in Lynn Haven that have flooded twice....I have been hoping for A Pensacola landfall as I can weather this better than they..

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Keith234
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: StormHound]
      #26747 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:42 PM

Isn't that a physics principle of mass conservation?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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SoonerShawn
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Prayers are with you Jason [Re: visitor]
      #26748 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:44 PM

I don't see a WNW jog that you all do. In fact I see more of a north motion now.

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Allison
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: LI Phil]
      #26749 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:44 PM

Quote:


Also...I sure hope those calling for a CAT II at landfall are right, but I don't see ANYTHING out there to stop at least a strong III/weak IV...depending on the conditions, why not a V?





The WV loop shows a ton of dry air sitting over LA and extending to the GOM... hopefully this will help to weaken Ivan some prior to landfall...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
(it actually shows up better on the RAMSDIS loop, but I haven't figured out how to link to it.... )

Allison

--------------------
Allison


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wxman007
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Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: kelcot]
      #26750 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:46 PM

Kel...

Her OB is a golfing buddy...if needs be I can get her admitted.

It is a girl, and her name will be Virginia Grace (Jenna)...we aren't changing to Ivana....lol

Thanks for all the well wishes...now let's get back on topic!!!

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Mon Sep 13 2004 08:50 PM)


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MrSpock
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Re: Prayers are with you Jason [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #26751 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:50 PM

phew, I thought it was me. I tried getting different shots, and the last one I had did have that N jog.

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FunkyLamb
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: visitor]
      #26752 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:51 PM

New Orleans Update...

All Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard, St. Tammany and Plaquemines Parish public schools are CLOSED. All Archdiocese schools are CLOSED. Loyola University and UNO are closed.

As was said earlier in the thread, Mayor Nagin has basically given a voluntary evacuation.

I-55 between 1-10 and I-12 heading south has been closed in anticipation of evacuation traffic.

--------------------
FunkyLamb

I'm just a simple man trying to make my way in the universe.


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rule
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: Keith234]
      #26753 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:51 PM

I read that as "a psychic principle of mass conversion"..

Made for a confused moment. Comes from being somewhat dyslexic...


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Frank P
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: visitor]
      #26754 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:53 PM

My personal opinion is that regardless if Ivan goes a little to the east or west of Pensacola, the area is in for a pounding.... you are right in the middle of the cone of probability... something really weird would have to happen for Pensacola not the get some significant weather from Ivan.... it would be much better for you if it were to hit on the east side, but if it does hit on your west, say Mobile, Pensacola will be pummeled... big time... providing of course it's intensity is still in the Cat3/4 range....

yeah, Pensacola right now looks like its in for a very rough time...things can change ... stay tuned...


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26755 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:53 PM

Best and prayers from me as well Jason.

Away for a bit all. Hopefully it won't crash.


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clyde w.
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Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26756 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:54 PM

Jason--

I don't have a lot of pull with the big guy, but you have my prayers tonight as well.

Kindness repaid likewise--if there is a such thing as karma I know you and your wife will be just fine, because He wouldn't let anything happen to someone who gives so much to weather enthusiasts without asking anything in return. Good luck in the next few days to you--and everyone in the path of this beast.


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tikibar
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Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26757 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:55 PM

Quote:




It is a girl, and her name will be Virginia Grace (Jenna)...we aren't changing to Ivana....lol




hmmm... sounds like a princess

good thing!
As I recall, Ivana was the name of a big luxury yacht bouncing off things in Palm Beach during Frances!


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rule
Weather Guru


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landfall? [Re: FunkyLamb]
      #26759 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 PM

Ok, with this last N wobble, can I claim my "west Cuba landfall by EW" prediction? Or am I 50 feet short?

Just think what it's like on that bit of land right now...


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Terra
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: FunkyLamb]
      #26760 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:15 PM

Quote:

New Orleans Update...

All Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard, St. Tammany and Plaquemines Parish public schools are CLOSED. All Archdiocese schools are CLOSED. Loyola University and UNO are closed.

As was said earlier in the thread, Mayor Nagin has basically given a voluntary evacuation.

I-55 between 1-10 and I-12 heading south has been closed in anticipation of evacuation traffic.




Of course that means my son has no school and I still have work, as I teach at a University a little more northern..... Actually, I don't want our school to close. I am giving an exam in my night class tomorrow.

Looking at the nice area high pressure over Louisiana, it seems like a waste... but, I guess tis better to be safe....

Great.... just saw that St. Tammany off-campus classes at SLU are cancelled for tomorrow. So much for that exam.....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Mon Sep 13 2004 09:24 PM)


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




By the way... [Re: tikibar]
      #26761 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:16 PM

I WAS WRONG!!!!

I admit I was totally off on my prediction with the trof and its effects on Ivan. It's a good thing I don't do it for a living because I'd be fired on my first day...lol


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LI Phil
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Re: By the way... [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #26762 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:21 PM

Mike must be back on line because not five minutes after he went off...down we went...

Shawn...that's the spirit! I say that (sometime on line, sometimes off) every day!

I've been wrong about this one since day 1, but I think I did actually nail the no coobah landfall...maybe.

40 minutes and counting...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dmusc
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: MikeC]
      #26763 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:24 PM

I have been folllowing the models since the beginning of Ivan. I live in the Jacksonville FL area. I get alot of information from the Accuweather Pro site and Joe Bastardi. Does anyone have information on the latest FSU Superensemble model run? I know it is proprietary and password protected online. The NHC discussions have not mentioned it in any of the latest discussions, although they did early on. I'm hoping this is not the wrong place to put this question.

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Frank P
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OOZ GFDL now hitting Biloxi, no really, I promise, see for yourself [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #26764 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:26 PM

looks like a good initialization on it too... these models are starting to piss me off.... I would be very happy if they all point to the panhandle, nothing personal you floridians... but I'm getting tired of these models pointing at me..... go figure... here's the link for all of you bored enough right now to review....

If you plot it, they will come..... need to get Kevin Costner to play the part of the NHC forecaster

GOM, the graveyard of busted forecasts... will this be another to add to the list...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: By the way... [Re: LI Phil]
      #26765 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:28 PM

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif

Okay I'm tired of the west shift but now it looks like most of the models are pointing at Mobile bay

Time to get back to boarding up and picking up stuff. Have a good night everyone James N Mobile AL

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