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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Kent
Weather Guru


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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26766 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:30 PM

Jason,

I am an RN and I just wanted to point out that when a hurricane comes into our area (or any I believe) they tell all women in their last month of pregnancy to come to the hospital before the storm. They are admitted and put wherever they have room. I was a nursing student during Andrew. I still remember laughing as I walked through the medical surgical unit. All I saw as I passed each room were these big bumps in the middle of all the beds. The sad thing however is that husbands can not accompany their wives to the unit during the storm, unless they are actually in labor at the time. She should be just fine, a little lonely maybe, but safe. Course you may have some pull there.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: rule]
      #26767 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:31 PM

When I was very young people thought I was dyslexic but I just like writing backwards for fun, gave me a challenge. Hope you can read this, just kidding I know what it's like.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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tikibar
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
Re: OOZ GFDL now hitting Biloxi, no really, I promise, see for yourself [Re: Frank P]
      #26768 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:31 PM

Huh!
Don't feel so persecuted!

The early NOGAPS had a path all the way through Milwaukee!



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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: By the way... [Re: HCW]
      #26769 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:31 PM

I live in Florida but I still am hoping it don't hit Mobile or other locales like that...............would be disastrous with that body of water as would NO or Tampa Bay.................

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: By the way... [Re: HCW]
      #26770 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:33 PM

The tropical model suite is run off of the GFS ,,,so when you see the 18Z run of the GFS,,the tropical model suites such as the BAMM, BAMD,AOE, and LBAR will have the same general path to some degree. In another words....after the GFS oz run comes out tonight,, you will see the tropical model suite runs around 2am and it will say 6z.'
On a side note,,,,,you can start to see the center of Ivan on long range Key west radar.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Rule & Jason [Re: Redbird]
      #26771 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:33 PM

Rule: If I had to do a chain measurement, you'd get the 1st down.

Jason...I have you, your wife, and all 3 of your children in my prayers. God takes care of those in need...believe me, I know. At this point, I am already praying for just about everyone in the universe. With a few obvious exceptions.

I don't see a wnw movement, I see a more NNW/N movement in the last loops. I hate Ivan.

The 11pm track will be interesting, to say the least.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: By the way... [Re: HCW]
      #26772 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:36 PM

I think some of those are the older model runs.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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spook
Unregistered




Re: OOZ GFDL now hitting Biloxi, no really, I promise, see for yourself [Re: tikibar]
      #26773 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:36 PM

I here George Bush is tired of visiting Florida!!!

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: rule]
      #26774 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:37 PM

Quote:

I read that as "a psychic principle of mass conversion"..





I think that applies too


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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The good news about the recent model runs [Re: HCW]
      #26775 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:38 PM

Actually this is good news for MS and AL.... when the models shift west the NHC shifts their forecast track to the east.... they are always on the right side of the models for Ivan's track... so I expect that at 11 the track will shift another 25 miles east of PC..... we now have 4 tropical models to the west of the forecast track, and 1 east.... I do not count the 5th model to the west of the forecast track, A98E, as it looks to be under the influence of some serious drugs or perhaps alcohol and otherwise known as .... MWI, modeling while intoxicated....

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26777 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:40 PM

I think the track will roughly be the same Colleen.......the 18Z runs show the same thing, but they initialized off the movement at 2pm. So when the NHC does theyre track they will use the 18Z run but not the 0z run cause they (all) wont be done yet and they need to get that out to the public. Now lets see the oz runs so that we can see if the NHC update the track in the 5am update and discussion. Now there might be a slight shift,, and if anything to the right since its been more less close to NNW so they will acknowledge that, but unless it turns due north or jog NNE during a 3-6 hour time frame, they will adjust it slightly.

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tikibar
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 13
Loc: 28.6N 81.37W
Re: The good news about the recent model runs [Re: Frank P]
      #26778 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:40 PM

The 98E is always acting like some unruly child, off getting into something!!!!

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26779 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:43 PM

For anyone into really off the wall stuff from TV--they had the Dyno guy on MSNBC tonight with his magic powder. Apparently, about the same amount of that stuff that it would take to wash your clothes can dry up a small bowl of water (insert oohs and ahhs here). How much would it take to dry up a hurricane?? Yeah, that's what I thought. Anyway, he stated that they will not be flying into Ivan as was earlier stated on a previous thread.

Also from MSNBC, apparently Castro and 8 accompanying amphibious tanks moved to the far western tip of Cuba to 'experience' the hurricane. For once, I almost wouldn't mind seeing a Cat 5 hit land. Too bad there are innocents there too...


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26780 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:44 PM

btw the oz run of the GFDL is not out yet,,at least to the public. Even though it says 2334z its a late run of the 18Z. Its a flaw in the time.

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lilyv
Weather Watcher


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Re: Folks....a personal request.... [Re: wxman007]
      #26781 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:44 PM

Jason,
I will keep your family in my prayers.
All the best you,
lilyv


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: The good news about the recent model runs [Re: Frank P]
      #26782 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:45 PM

Quote:

MWI, modeling while intoxicated....





Hey, I've been known to do that on occasions...fughedaboutit...it's a stressful job.

I am STILL seeing the NNW/N movement. I'm on the other side of you...I think the further north it goes, the higher the probability that Mexico will be in the track.

Which, of course, is dictated by the models.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: clyde w.]
      #26783 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:45 PM

Maybe Castro will want to go on a warship to experience it...

That would kill 2 birds with one stone, no?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Loc: fl
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: LI Phil]
      #26784 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:50 PM

Castro hates south florida soo much Im sure he had scientists develop something to try to get up into the storm and drive it ENE after Cuba towards Miami,,.,,,thing would be funny if it back fired and kept turning then se into Havana.

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: LI Phil]
      #26785 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 PM

LI Phil--we could only hope...

Colleen --ROFLOL!!

Unfortunately I'm on a connection so slow that I'm still trying to load a loop of Charley!

Seriously, tonight's turn to the NW is really the final piece of the puzzle as to final landfall. If it happens, then a western landfall is more likely. If not, then you have to go with the FL panhandle (ooh! the loop just loaded!). Still looks NNW to me, so PCB is looking more likely, maybe just a hair west of there.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1299
Re: The good news about the recent model runs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26786 - Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 PM

Colleen, I'm getting to the point that I'd like to perhaps drink a little dynogel, just wash the model blues away.... boy, have they been frustrating me with our bad boy Ivan...

maybe I have PWI and don't know it... Posting while intoxicated...

he keeps going north and it going to save me a bunch of work.... go north old man Ivan


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